Pakistan and Mexico Collapse Possible: Why I'm Glad Somebody Else is President

Oh, great:

• Somebody, possibly Hezbollah, started firing rockets into northern Israel, adding another front to Israel's war
• Meanwhile, Pakistan's leaders are making Indian chauvinists' claims about the Mumbai attack sound less loopy
• And now it looks like Mexico may collapse

The Joint Forces Command's "JOE [Joint Operating Environment] 2008" went public in November of 2008, got discussed in a few blogs, and seems to have hit the news this month. So far, it's just barely in America's national news.

I'm pretty sure that'll change as President Elect Barack Obama becomes President Obama.

Sudden Collapse of Mexico: Think Somalia South of the Border

But first, two points:

The Joint Forces Command says, right inside the cover of "JOE 2008:"

"The Joint Operating Environment is intended to inform joint concept development and experimentation throughout the Department of Defense. It provides a perspective on future trends, shocks, contexts, and implications for future joint force commanders and other leaders and professionals in the national security field. This document is speculative in nature and does not suppose to predict what will happen in the next twenty-five years...."
("Joint Operating Environment 2008")

A sudden collapse of the governments in Pakistan or Mexico are "worst-case scenarios," as "JOE 2008" points out on page 36.

Mexico in (More) Chaos: Not Good News

Mexico's drug cartels and gangs aren't making life easy for anyone these days. The country's politicos, judicial systems, and police, may not crack under the strain. Or, they might.

If they do, having to re-schedule those vacations in Cancun will be the least of America's worries. Besides more-or-less-organized crime leaking over the border, I think it's a safe guess that terrorist organizations will be happy to provide humanitarian aid to the suffering Mexicans. In exchange for access to Mexican territory and other favors.

Possibilities like that may be one reason for President Elect Obama's less-than-gleeful expression, after one of his briefings after winning the election.

Anyone Can Become President - But I'll Pass

"Anyone can grow up to become president" may be a cliche, but there's some truth to it in America. Whoever has a shot at it has to have a fairly unusual set of abilities, of course - but this is still a remarkably open society, when it comes to who can rise to the top. Or, head in the opposite direction.

In my case, though, I'm profoundly glad that I'm not president, nor likely to be in the Oval Office. There's some seriously heavy-duty responsibility that goes with the job. I'd much rather be sitting out here, free to opine on what goes on in Washington and the world, without having billions of lives and the course of history depending on what I decide today.

More-or-less related post:

• "President-Elect Barack Obama and Rhambo: Change Begins Now"
  (November 7, 2008)

News and views:

• "Military Report: Mexico, Pakistan at Risk of 'Rapid and Sudden Collapse' "
  FOXNews (January 14, 2009)
• "Will Mexico Collapse? Will America?"
  Capital Commerce / U.S. News and World Report blog (January 14, 2009)
• "Pakistan, Mexico and U.S. nightmares"
  The Great Debate / Reuters blog (January 7, 2009)
• "What the heck did they tell him?"
  Oddly Enough / Reuters blog (November 6, 2008)

Background:

• "Joint Operating Environment 2008"
  United States Joint Forces Command (November 25, 2008)