Egypt and an Uncoup

If the joint chiefs of staff placed America's president under house arrest, locked up the House majority leader, and declared that new elections would be held this august, that would bother me.

America doesn't work that way.

Egypt, President Morsi, and an Uncoup

I heard about Egypt's military prying President Morsi out of office last night. National leaders made the usual 'military coups are bad' statements, while Egypts military leadership said that they'd see to it that free elections happened in the near future.¹

President Morsi's truncated term in office isn't surprising. Last year he said:

• He's making Egypt
  • Safe for freedom and democracy
  • Stable
• Nobody can change the new rules
  • Except him
  (November 23, 2012)

Maybe I'm too cynical, but when a nation's leader takes personal control of executive and legislative functions: I'm dubious about the leader's motives. 'To preserve freedom, I'm taking over' has an unpleasant ring to it.

Quite a few folks in Egypt were disappointed by Morsi. He'd promised that he and his Muslim Brotherhood would let everybody have a say in how they ran Egypt.

One of the problems with elections and an informed electorate, from an old-school viewpoint, is that 'the Masses' expect leaders to keep their word.

Right now, I think there's a chance what happened in Egypt isn't a coup. Egypt's military may have stepped in to keep Morsi and company from dragging Egypt back to the 'good old days' of elite rule.

Elections and Assumptions

Like I've said before, I like the way America's government is supposed to work. Open elections, accountability, and due process are good ideas: even when I feel frustrated with the lot we've got running this country.

I don't, however, think that every country should have a bicameral legislature and use a photocopy of the Constitution. That system works for us, but every country has a unique history and culture.

I hope that Egyptians develop a form of government that works for them: all of them.

Related posts:

• "Egypt, America, and 'Preserving Freedom' "
  (December 10, 2012)
• "Egypt, Morsi, and Dealing With Change"
  (December 4, 2012)
• "Egypt, America: Change, Freedom, and Other Threats to the Status Quo"
  (November 23, 2012)
• "Guinea, Military Rule, and Terrorism: Beware Hasty Judgment"
  (December 29, 2008)

News and views:

• "Egypt army arrests key Muslim Brotherhood figures"
  BBC News (July 4, 2013)
• "Brotherhood leader arrested, Egypt's Islamists call protests"
  Asma Alsharif, Shadia Nasralla, Reuters (July 4, 2013)
• "Obama chose his words on Egypt carefully -- for a reason"
  Jake Tapper, CNN (July 4, 2013)

---

¹ Excepts from news and views:

"Egypt army arrests key Muslim Brotherhood figures"
BBC News (July 4, 2013)

"Egypt's military has moved against the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood, a day after deposing President Mohammed Morsi.

"Mr Morsi is in detention, as well as senior figures in the Islamist group of which he is a member. Hundreds more are being sought.

"The top judge of Egypt's constitutional court, Adly Mahmud Mansour, has been sworn in as interim leader.

"He has pledged to hold elections based on 'the genuine people's will'.

"At a news conference, Muslim Brotherhood spokesman Gehad el-Haddad declared 'our full refusal and revoking of the military coup' and demanded Mr Morsi's immediate release, along with the other detainees.

"He declared the Brotherhood's 'full denial of co-operation' with the new regime and said it would take part in all 'peaceful, people-led protest'.

"Meanwhile, Egyptian Foreign Minister Kamel Amr - who resigned from Mr Morsi's government on Monday - said he had assured US Secretary of State John Kerry in a telephone call on Thursday that the overthrow of President Morsi had not been a military coup, but the 'overwhelming will of the people'.

"The upheaval in Egypt comes after days of mass rallies against Mr Morsi and the Brotherhood, who are accused of pursuing an Islamist agenda and failing to tackle Egypt's economic problems...."

---

"Brotherhood leader arrested, Egypt's Islamists call protests"
Asma Alsharif, Shadia Nasralla, Reuters (July 4, 2013)

"Egyptian security forces arrested the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood on Thursday, security sources said, in a crackdown against the Islamist movement after the army ousted the country's first democratically elected president.

"The dramatic exit of President Mohamed Mursi was greeted with delight by millions of jubilant people on the streets of Cairo and other cities overnight, but there was simmering resentment among Egyptians who opposed military intervention.

"An Islamist coalition led by the Brotherhood called on people across the nation to protest in a "Friday of Rejection" following weekly prayers, an early test of Mursi's ongoing support and how the military will deal with it...."

---

"Obama chose his words on Egypt carefully -- for a reason"
Jake Tapper, CNN (July 4, 2013)

"President Barack Obama's statement about the Egyptian military's seizure of power is as telling for what he doesn't say as for what he does: he doesn't mention the word 'coup.'

"He doesn't call upon the military to restore power to 'the democratically elected civilian government,' but rather to 'a democratically elected civilian government.'

"In other words, it need not be deposed President Mohamed Morsy's.

"The thinking of the president and administration officials, according to a knowledgeable source, is that while the administration is not explicitly supporting the removal of Morsy from power -- it expressly did not support the move -- it is seeking to push the Egyptian military in a direction...."

---

Commie Plots, Cholesterol, Frank Burns, Hugo Chavez, and 2012

In the "good old days," when I was growing up, a vocal portion of the American populace were convinced that commie plots were behind just about everything they didn't like.

By the time I was paying attention, they had a declining influence over the American government's decisions. In my opinion their greater contribution to the culture was a fairly steady stream of gaffes, and being a highly identifiable group for comedians to joke about, satirists to satirize, and writers to use as the basis for memorable - if somewhat two-dimensional - characters like Frank Burns of M*A*S*H.

That was then, this is now. Acid rain, the terrible dangers of electrical transmission lines, and global warming, have replaced "commie plots" as effective rallying cries. Although not for the same people as were swayed by the likes of Wisconsin's Senator Joseph McCarthy, of course. It's hard to imagine a politician building his or her campaign on the claim that there are some number of known communists in the State Department.

Or, if some politico was crazy enough to try - winning a state or national election.

Hugo Chavez, Weather Control, Democracy and All That

This afternoon, discussing western-hemisphere politics and cultural history with my oldest daughter, we ran over the idea that democracy was the only viable, or for that matter, decent, form of government.

The idea died at the scene.

Our conversation ricocheted in another direction: which has even less to do with the general topic of this blog than this post.

The encounter with one of the basic assumptions of many Americans - that democracy is the only "right" way to run a country - reminded me of something I wrote about a year ago:

Military Rule as the Ideal Form of Government

No, I don't really think so, but look at this:

• Government by Religious Leaders
  Example: Afghanistan under the Taliban
  Result: Terrorism
• Government by Monarch
  Example: Saudi Arabia
  Result: Terrorists
  • (15/19 of the 9/11 hijackers were Saudis)
• Government by Elected Leaders
  Example: Somalia
  Result: Terrorists - and pirates
• Government by Military Ruler
  Example: Guinea
  • Assuming that the elections were as faked as critics claim
  Result: No terrorism (and no pirates, either)

You see?! That 'proves' that military rule is superior to old-fashioned monarchies, theocracies, and constitutional democracies.

What's Wrong With This Picture?

Pretty obvious, isn't it? I carefully selected examples that supported my claim. That can make for effective propaganda, but it's not good reasoning.

As a matter of fact, I don't have the visceral, reflexive revulsion that many Americans have toward the idea of having a country run by military or religious rulers. I think it depends on what individuals are running the show, and which side of the eighteenth century most of the country's people live on.
(December 29, 2008)

Hugo Chavez is the leader of a constitutional democracy. Venezuela's current constitution dates from December 30, 1999 - and President Chavez was elected in 2006 by a respectable margin: 62.9% to 36.9%. The next election for the Venezuelan president is in 2012.¹

The Mayan "Long Count," and 2012; and 7138; and 12263; and 17388; and ---

Which brings up the point of this post. Quite a number of people seem to assume that 2012 will be when the world ends.

As a matter of fact, December 21, 2012, is when a "Long Count" cycle of the Mayan calendar will end - assuming that the current Long Count started on August 11, 3114 BC. If it started on August 13 - which is possible - the cycle re-starts on December 23, 2012. It'll also re-start in the spring of 7138, summer of 12263, autumn of 17388, and so on.²

Western civilization's calendar uses a base-ten numeric system, and involves centuries and millennia. We just experienced the end of one of our 'long cycles' - December 31, 1999 - and Y2K went past without an apocalypse. (Yes, there was a real issue with legacy software - which encouraged some long-overdue upgrades and re-engineering.)

I don't expect to influence people who are convinced that:

• Commie plots are behind every disagreeable event
• We're all gonna die from
  • Acid rain
  • Cholesterol (high or otherwise)
  • Global warming
  • The end of a Mayan calendrical cycle

On the other hand, I think there's some merit in reminding the rest of us that assumptions are a convenient mental shortcut - and should be re-considered now and again.

Related post:

• "Guinea, Military Rule, and Terrorism: Beware Hasty Judgment"
  (December 29, 2008)

In the news:

• "Chavez asking Cubans to 'bomb clouds' amid drought"
  Reuters, via Thomson Reuters Foundation AlertNet (November 15, 2009)

Background:

• ¹ Venezuela
  • "Venezuela"
    World Factbook, CIA (last updated November 11, 2009)
• ² Mayan calendar
  • "Converting from the Mayan Calendar"
    University of Nevada, Reno
  • "Mayan Calendar"
    Pomona College, Claremont, California
  • "What's going to happen on December 21st 2012?"
    Curious About Astronomy?

---

Hugo Chavez may, eventually, be the basis of a character as colorful and memorable as Frank Burns. From today's news:

"Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez says he will join a team of Cuban scientists on flights to "bomb clouds" to create rain amid a severe drought that has aroused public anger due to water and electricity rationing.

"Chavez, who has asked Venezuelans to take three-minute showers to save water, said the Cubans had arrived in Venezuela and were preparing to fly specially equipped aircraft above the Orinoco river.

" 'I'm going in a plane; any cloud that crosses me, I'll zap it so that it rains,' Chavez said at a ceremony late on Saturday with family members of five Cubans convicted of spying in the United States...."
(Reuters)

The West and Today's Somali President: The Enemy of Your Enemy is Your Friend?

It's hit the international news: Osama bin Laden, or someone who says he's bin Laden, and is using bin Laden's distribution network, wants Somali Muslims to overthrow Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmad, Somalia's president since January 31 of this year.

Radio Netherlands' headline reads, "Bin Laden attacks Arab leader." Their article starts with: "In a newly released video recording, Osama bin Laden has lashed out at an Arab leader. In the recording, the fugitive head of the al-Qaeda network called on his supporters to depose the new Somali president Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmad...."

That's President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmad in the photo,

I don't know Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmad's biography all that well: his name and title certainly sound Arabic, and he's a Muslim, but, and I hope nobody will be offended by this: he doesn't look like most Arabs we see.

It's easy to assume that Radio Netherlands saw the name, read that he's a Muslim, and made an assumption. It's possible that "Arab" is a mistranslation in Radio Netherlands' English version. Or, maybe he is an Arab. It any case, once again:

• Not all Arabs are Muslims
• Not all Muslims are Arabs

Bin Laden is not pleased with the new Somali president. Sheikh Sharif has had control of Somalia's Islamic courts, but " 'as a result of inducements and offers from the American envoy in Kenya, he changed and turned back on his heels' and agreed to partner with the 'infidel' to form a government of national unity...." (CNN)

Don't Read the News: Study it

Or, if you stop at reading: don't assume that you've gotten the whole story. Or even, sometimes, accurate information.

The Curious Case of the Caption Caper

Sharia law's reputation has been taking a beating over the last few years, thanks to the lashings, beatings, and the odd stoning here there that Sharia law calls for. According to supporters of Sharia law, anyway.

Other supporters say that Sharia law is very nice, and not at all incompatible with Western values.

They could all be right. I've gotten the impression that there are considerably more varieties of 'genuine' Islam, than flavors of ice cream in a Baskin-Robins.

Here's what two different captions to photos of the new Somali president said:

• "President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed has said shariah law in Somalia will not be strictly interpreted." (CNN)
• "Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed has vowed to introduce Sharia " (BBC)

For the same of girls like Aisha Ibrahim Duhulow, I hope the CNN caption is a better match with reality. Somali courts listed her age as 23, before someone did a little checking. The young teenager had been raped.

Which, according to Sharia law - Somali style - meant that she was guilty of adultery. So, the court had her buried up to her neck and stoned to death. While about a thousand good Muslims watched. One of them explained that they were doing the will of Allah.

Yes, I know: America is Not Perfect

Some decades back, some screwball American judges had trouble telling the difference between a rape victim and an adulteress: but even they didn't pass death sentences, as far as I know. And, that application of warped cultural values to American law made quite a stink.

Yes, I know: Not All Muslims Stone Girls For Being Raped

As I said before, there is quite a smorgasbord of 'Islams' available, around the world. Whether a rape victim is stoned for the 'crime' she committed seems to depend on where she was raped.

Let's Hope CNN is Right

I sincerely hope that CNN hit closer to the mark. Quite aside from humanitarian concerns, Somali doesn't need more bad press - pirates in the north fighting Islamic fanatics in the south are doing a fine job of that right now. There's no need to go around, stoning young teens for being raped, and saying 'Allah told me to.'

Sheikh Sharif: Establishing Sharia, and "Surrogate" of Infidel America

In Somalia, it looks like no matter what a leader does: it's wrong. Support Sharia, and look like you're out to stone teenage girls; acknowledge the last thousand or so years of developments in human rights, and be called a "surrogate" of infidel America.

No matter what he does, the current president of Somalia is in for a rough time. My hope is that he doesn't do anything particularly stupid or evil, and escapes with his life.

Sheikh Sharif: No Friend to bin Laden

The new president of Somalia has "vowed to introduce Sharia." Osama bin Laden says he wants Sharia established and defended. So, what's the problem? Sounds like Bin Laden has one of his guys in Somalia.

Not so. Apparently Sheikh Sharif isn't establishing Sharia the right way. According to bin Laden.

As the new Osama bin Laden says, "...'beware of the initiatives which wear the dress of Islam and the religious institutions even as they contradict the rules of Islamic shariah, like the initiative attributed to some of the scholars of Somalia which gives Sheikh Sharif six months to implement Islamic shariah. They are asking him for something he was installed to demolish, so how can he possibly erect it?'..." (CNN) Sounds logical enough, given bin Laden's starting assumptions.

Osama bin Laden warned Somali Muslims who have been killing for Allah to beware. They shouldn't, bin Laden said, stop fighting and negotiate with the new Somali president. Sheikh Sharif, you see, is just the "new surrogate" - and he's under American control. According to Osama bin Laden.

" 'All intelligent people are aware of America's combating of Islam, and its past rejection of its establishment in Somalia, as well as in Iraq and Afghanistan,' " bin Laden said in his message. (CNN)

Who's Your Friend?

I've heard that "the enemy of your enemy is your friend" is a bit of wisdom that originated in the Middle East. Since that's an ancient center of civilization, I thank that's likely enough.

And, I think it may apply to relations between Somalia's current president, bin Laden, and the Obama administration.

Whatever preferences today's Somali president may have had, now that bin Laden has put the word out that Sheikh Sharif is persona non grata, I think that Sheikh Sharif should seriously consider not antagonizing America and other Western countries. With bin Laden and company gunning for you, a man can't have too man friends.

It goes both ways. If Sheikh Sharif wasn't a "surrogate" before, I think that the Obama administration should seriously consider giving limited and conditional support to the current Somali president.

Limited and conditional.

America: Intolerant and Biased

In a way, the view that many "intelligent" people in America is rather accurate. Despite decades of multicultural studies and the best efforts of America's self-described best and brightest, many American's remain extremely intolerant of some cherished customs of other cultures.

Like stoning rape victims to death.

More-or-less related posts:

• "Minnesotans Recruited for Terror?"
  (March 10, 2009)
• "Al Shabaab May Be Running Somalia Now: Just What We Need"
  (January 26, 2009)
• "Lebanon, Israel, Pakistan, India, and the Lizard People"
  (January 14, 2009)
• "America to Unilaterally Attack Somalia!"
  (January 8, 2009)
• "Guinea, Military Rule, and Terrorism: Beware Hasty Judgment"
  (December 29, 2008)
• "Chinese Navy to Somali Waters - Time Running out for Somalia?"
  (December 18, 2008)
• "Recruiting for Terror? Somali Minnesotans Missing, One Found Dead"
  (December 4, 2008)
• "Cruise Ships and Safety: Designated Smoking Areas and Sonic Cannons"
  (December 1, 2008)
• "Negotiated End to Somali Piracy - This Just Might Work"
  (November 26, 2008)
• "Somali Pirates, Sunken Trawlers, Missing Crews, and Fuming Hostages"
  (November 25, 2008)
• "Piracy and the War on Terror"
  (November 23, 2008)
• "Somali Piracy, Islamic Law, and Maybe a Piece of the Action"
  (November 23, 2008)
• "Piracy, Terrorism, and a Changing World"
  (November 20, 2008)
• There's more: use this blog's 'Search' function, in the upper left corner)

In the news:

• "Osama bin Laden Pushes Somali Cause"
  ABC News (March 19, 2009)
• "Bin Laden attacks Arab leader"
  Radio Netherlands Worldwide (March 19, 2009)
  • Somalia is in Africa, the current Somali president is, ethnically, an Arab)
• "Bin Laden: Topple Somalia's leader"
  Al Jazeera (March 19, 2009)
• "Purported bin Laden message urges Somali leader's overthrow"
  CNN (March 19, 2009)
• "Topple Somali leader - Bin Laden"
  BBC (March 19, 2009)
• "New worries over possible strikes by al-Shabaab in US"
  East African (March 14, 2009)

Background:

• "Save Women Now"
  Family Security Matters (March 6, 2009)
• "Islamic honor killings take center stage"
  WorldNet Daily (March 5, 2009)
• "Somalia"
  World Factbook, CIA (updated March 5, 2009)
• "Stoning victim 'begged for mercy' "
  BBC (March 4, 2009)
• "Osama bin Laden - "letter to the American people""
  GlobalSecurity.org (2000)

Good News from Iraq: Voter Fraud and Verbal Attacks on American Leaders

I was expecting to see something like this in the news from Iraq: 'BAGHDAD: The failed policies of George Bush result in massive voter fraud.'

I didn't find quite that sort of article. Not in 'mainstream media,' anyway. Maybe I didn't look hard enough. Or the press is being nice to Obama, or has more sense than that.

America's 'Newspaper of Record,' on America in Iraq

The New York Times, in "America's Scorecard in Iraq," acknowledged that the Iraqi elections had occurred, and were conducted about as well as America's (they didn't put it that way - but I think that's what it boils down to). The Gray Lady even said that, by and large, all things considered, Iraq was probably better off without Saddam Hussein in charge.

As for "...Has the war [in Iraq] enhanced American strategic interests in the troubled Middle East, as President Bush and the other champions of the war long argued would happen?

"The answer really is no, or at least not yet."

Considering the source, that's almost a ringing endorsement.

Democracy and Freedom are Messy - Deal With it

Iraq's recent elections are nowhere near as well-run as former president Saddam Hussein's. Back in 2002, President Hussein won an election, with enthusiastic and unanimous support. "During polling, many voters trampled American flags and some signed their ballot-papers in their own blood in a display of loyalty to their leader." (BBC)

Saddam Hussein, the democratically-elected leader deposed during Bush's war, got 100% of the vote. No real surprise, there: he was the only candidate.

Iraq's recent election was, in comparison, a mess.

Results from more than 30 polling stations had to be thrown out, because of voter fraud. Apparently, although all 14 provinces had problems, quite a few of the bogus votes were in Diyala province. Again, no great surprise: there's at least a three-way shootout going on there: Sunni vs. Shiite vs. Kurdish.

Having, nation-wide, an average of about two significant cases of voter fraud per province is, I think, doing rather well. Of course, I live in Minnesota, where we're still wrangling over which absentee voters deserve to have their votes counted. (My guess is that this U.S. Senate election will be sorted out before the next election.)

My point is that I'm on the same page with Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on at least one point: Any American who says Iraq isn't moving fast enough, developing a smoothly-running democracy, should take a look at America's history.

More than two centuries after doing something about the 'taxation without representation' thing, America is still tinkering with everything from the Constitution to just exactly what a 'legitimate' ballot is.

Sure, Iraq's got issues. So is everybody. The point is, it looks like they got through an election with less fuss than some of America's.

Yet Another Mission Accomplished: Iraqi Prime Minister Tells off American Leader

The Iraqi prime minister rather politely telling an American vice-president to read this year's papers before shooting his mouth off seems to be a rather diplomatic reaction by an independent country.

Looks to me like Iraq's new government is off to a pretty good start.

More-or-less related posts:

• "Iraq After Liberation: Rockers, Businesswomen, and Hope"
  (February 10, 2009)
• "Iraq Elections Okay, Civilian Deaths Down: Whaddaya Know? Good News"
  (January 31, 2009)
• "Iraqi Government Boots Blackwater: Another 'Mission Accomplished' "
  (January 29, 2009)
• "Abu Ghraib: Abuse and Sexual Humiliation by American Soldiers in the News Again"
  (January 25, 2009)
• "Iran's Nuclear Program, Israel, Iraq, America, Bush and Obama: Simple? Not!"
  (January 11, 2009)

News and views:

• "Iraqi election commission acknowledges fraud"
  The Associated Press (February 15, 2009)
• "Minn. Senate trial hinges on voter mistakes"
  The Associated Press (February 14, 2009)
• "Iraq's Maliki says Biden criticism "out of date""
  Reuters (February 10, 2009)
• "America’s Scorecard in Iraq "
  The New York Times (February 7, 2009)
• "Vote fraud fears threaten months of Anbar peace"
  Los Angeles Times, via San Francisco Chronicle (February 5, 2009)
  Compare:
  • "Sunni rivals clash over elections in Iraq's Anbar province"
    Los Angeles Times (February 5, 2009)
  • "Fears of violence as tribes declare Iraq poll a sham"
    Sydney Morning Herald (February 6, 2009)
  • "Rivals Clash Over Elections in Iraq's Anbar Province"
    Assyrian International News Agency (February 5, 2009)
  • "Los Angeles Times - Sunni rivals clash over elections in Iraq's Anbar province"
    International Institute for Strategic Studies (February 5, 2009)
• "Saddam 'wins 100% of vote' "
  BBC (October 16, 2002)

"Democracy is the Best Revenge"

Pakistan's new president, Asif Ali Zardari, is described as "pro-American," so my guess is that we'll be hearing quite a bit of the old (unproven) corruption charges against him.

The charges might be true, but they also took him out of circulation for a while. Pakistan seems to be a rough place, where people with the wrong views get very unlucky. For his sake, and Pakistan's, I hope that Mr. Zaradari isn't as 'accident prone' as his late wife, Benazir Bhutto: who just happened to be killed when Karachi phone service failed and the city's street lights went out around her motorcade ("Pakistani Government Promises Objective Investigation of its Involvement in Bhutto Assassination Attempt (October 22, 2007)).

Pakistan's new president made a statement today that endeared him to me. "It is the philosophy of ... Benazir Bhutto, in which we believe, which says democracy is the best revenge," he said. "She taught us how to live. She taught us how to do politics." (CNN) Last year, following Benazir Bhutto's assassination, her son cited his mother's "democracy is the best revenge" philosophy, too.

I agree with the general principle, although I wouldn't use the word "revenge" myself. I think that democracy - allowing common people to participate in selecting leaders and making a government's decisions - together with a rule of law, is a fine way to deny the heritage of a regime ruled for and by the powerful.

No matter who's in charge, Pakistan's going to have a rough time in the next few years: maybe the next few generations. There's a lot of catching up to do. But that's a matter for another post.

In the news:

• "Bhutto widower Zardari elected Pakistan's new president"
  CNN (September 6, 2008)
  • "ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (CNN) -- Nearly a year after assassins killed Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, her widower won the country's presidential election and hailed his triumph as a victory for democracy.
  • " 'I feel democracy has been vindicated,' Asif Ali Zardari told CNN. 'I feel we are coming closer to her [Benazir Bhutto's] mission of total democracy in Pakistan. And we shall take the oath of office of President in the name of Shahid Benazir Bhutto, and that will be a momentous occasion for all the democratic forces in the world.'
  • "Zardari, 53, had been the front-runner in the race to replace former President Pervez Musharraf, who was forced to resign last month.
  • "The election was not by public vote, but rather by lawmakers in the two houses of the National Assembly and in the four provincial assemblies around the country. Under Pakistan's constitution, the president is elected by a majority vote...."
• "Bhutto’s Widower Wins Pakistani Presidency"
  • "ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of the slain former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and a controversial politician with little experience in governing, was elected president of Pakistan on Saturday.
  • "Results from voting in the two houses of Parliament, and three of four provincial assemblies, showed that Mr. Zardari had easily prevailed over his closest competitor.
  • "The results were announced by the chief election commissioner, Qazi Muhammed Farooq. The votes from a fourth provincial assembly remained to be counted.
  • "Mr. Zardari, 53, who spent 11 years in jail on corruption charges that were not proven, succeeds Pervez Musharraf, who resigned as president last month under the threat of impeachment...."
• "Bhutto's widower goes from prison to presidency"
  Reuters (September 6, 2008)
  • "ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Asif Ali Zardari has completed a traumatic journey from prison to the presidency of Pakistan.
  • "Regarded as a polo-playing playboy in his youth, the catalyst for Zardari's rise was the assassination last December of his wife, the two-time prime minister Benazir Bhutto.
  • "After leading Bhutto's grieving party to a general election victory in February, Zardari played a deft hand to force former president Pervez Musharraf from office in August, nine years after the then army chief came to power in a military coup.
  • "The presidency caps a remarkable transformation for Zardari, who spent 11 years in prison on charges of corruption and murder, although he denied all accusations and was never convicted. He was released on bail in 2004...."

Related posts, on Individuals and the War on Terror.

Army Report: Big Mistakes in Iraq!

The American Army released "On Point II: Transition to the New Campaign The United States Army in Operation IRAQI FREEDOM May 2003–January 2005" today: a copy has been available on the Pentagon website since the weekend.

(It's a hefty document: a 104 MB *.pdf file - 720 sheets of not particularly light reading.)

Mild, Muted Reactions

Reactions were much more muted than what I expected:

• "Army Did Not Plan for Post-Invasion Iraq? What About Bush?"
  DAVIDCORN.com (June 30, 2008)
  • "The latest non-news news about Iraq comes from a nearly 700-page Army study that notes that the Army--including General Tommy Franks--did not prepare adequately for the post-invasion phase in Iraq. The bottom-line quote: "The military means employed [in Iraq] were sufficient to destroy the Saddam regime; they were not sufficient to replace it with the type of nation-state the United States wished to see in its place." But this failure does not belong only to Franks and the Army. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld...."
• "US Army's Report ---- Bush (cheney)ed Up"
  TwoPuttTommy's blog (June 29, 2008)
  • "Ladies and Gentlemen, two years ago the Pioneer Press asked the 22 major party candidates for congress three questions, one of which was: 'Did the U.S. do the right thing sending troops to Iraq?' John Kline answered, and I quote: 'Second guessing is for Monday morning quarterbacks and not the way to decide foreign policy. The point is our troops are in Iraq now, so the real question is how do we support our troops and the new Iraqi government?' Ladies and Gentlemen, that was a bullshit answer then, and it still is...."
• "Generalship and Iraq"
  HG's WORLD (June 28, 2008)
  • "...They all have the same thing in common. They were in charge of either winning or commanding, the decisive battle in a war. Everyone of this men justly earned the accolades of their nation and in the case all save one, continued to serve until the job was done...."

(There were many more 'blog' posts than these. I selected posts that expressed opinion or offered commentary, rather than just parroting news reports (my own parrot squawks are mostly at the end of this post).)

Big Iraq Mistakes Report Creates Big Dilemma

I suspect that the reasons we aren't seeing more triumphant whoops from the out-now people is that this Army report is a long, tedious read - and doesn't quite say the right things.

For example, there's the report's handling of President Bush's infamous "Mission Accomplished" banner:

"...This stunning victory led President Bush, with the encouragement of his top military leaders, to announce the end to major combat operations on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln. While viewed by some as tantamount to a declaration of victory, in reality, this announcement merely marked the point where the campaign transitioned from combat to the next phase of operations focused on the reconstruction of Iraq...."
("On Point II," Prologue, page 19, continuing a topic raised on page 9)

That "Mission Accomplished" banner story took on a life of its own: and I doubt that those who prefer to see it as an example of ignorant arrogance appreciate the facts being brought up again.¹

Too Many Facts

It must be difficult for those dedicated to seeing American involvement in Iraq as an unmitigated failure, to have a major military 'admission' be so annoyingly filled with facts.

Contrary to what it's like in what I'll call the World According to Berkeley, the American military is not made up of sadistic; power-mad rulers; bent on oppressing the hapless losers they command; and through them, the world.

The American military in the real world is made up of fallible human beings: but human beings who are smart, professional, and who want to learn from past mistakes. As the Commanding General of US Army Training and Doctrine Command, General William S. Wallace, wrote in the forward:

"...One of the great, and least understood, qualities of the United States Army is its culture of introspection and self-examination. American Soldiers, whether it is the squad leader conducting a hasty after action review of a training event or the senior leader studying great campaigns from the past, are part of a vibrant, learning organization. The CSI motto—The Past is Prologue—neatly captures the need for this study. Publishing the recent history of the United States Army's operations is a key part of the TRADOC mission to develop adaptive, innovative leaders who are flexible, culturally astute experts in the art and science of the profession of arms, and who are able to quickly adapt to the contemporary operating environment...."
("On Point II," Prologue, page iii)

"The Past is Prologue" - Learn From It!

This report is part of the American Army's efforts to learn what has gone right in Iraq, and what's gone wrong. The long range goal: to repeat past successes, and avoid past blunders.

There's no doubt about it: the report shows some very serious problems in the Pentagon, like Lieutenant General (Retired) Jay Garner and his ORHA team, and chain of command.

"...General Keane had similar concerns about Garner's authority in the spring of 2003 when DOD formed ORHA. After a briefing from Garner at the Pentagon, Keane recounted, 'I asked him who he was working for and he said that he was working for Secretary Rumsfeld. I said, goddamn it, Jay, that is the wrong answer. Every damn time we don't have unity of command. You should be working for one guy and one guy only, and that is Franks.' ..."
("On Point II," page 150)

And, there are problems in the matter of getting enough troops and the right equipment to the right places.

"...[former Ambassador] Bremer remembered that the al-Sadr uprising and Sunni attacks of April 2004 conclusively demonstrated to him that Coalition troops were stretched too thin and that led him to send a written request for one or two more divisions.... According to Bremer, he never received an official response to his request...."²
("On Point II," page 168)

Successes are in the report, too. But, from some points of view, they're the wrong sort of successes.

"...Neither mission accomplishment nor the integrity of the media was compromised. . . . Embedded media had a more realistic understanding and were more optimistic in their accounts than media who were reporting from the Pentagon, from (CENTCOM) in Qatar, or from Coalition Forces Land Component Command (CFLCC) in Kuwait. . . . In sum, the embedded media balanced the negative press from reporters outside Iraq...."
("On Point II," page 294, quoting from 3d ID, AAR, Lessons Learned, Chapter 6: Embedded Media, 40–44.)

The 'Big Mistakes in Iraq' Report is Out - Now What?

I think that awareness of this report will fade away, as the truth sinks in. "On Point II: Transition to the New Campaign" describes eighteen months of an imperfect, flawed, campaign to put Iraq on its feet as a free democracy - while terrorists did their best to ruin the process.

Here's the last entry in the chronology:

"Iraq holds its first free national elections in 50 years. Voter turnout is higher than projected, but most Sunnis boycott.

"Nine suicide bombers and insurgents firing mortars kill 26 Iraqis and wound over 100 in election-related violence."
("On Point II," pages 641-648)

Here's one way to look at the facts:

• Sunnis Boycott Iraqi Election
• Election Violence Kills 26 Iraqis

Here's another:

• Iraq: First Free Elections in Over 50 Years
  • Sunnis Boycott Election
  • 26 Iraqis Dead, Over 100 wounded in Election-Related Violence

I'm inclined to see free elections as a good thing. I know that the situation in Iraq is not everything it should - and can - be. But, I don't see it as hopeless.

Let's remember what has been accomplished.

(CENTCOM Photo, from "On Point II," page 421, used w/o permission)
"Figure 106. Iraqi woman voter."

American Army report on the Iraq campaign, in the news:

• "US army blames 'flawed' Iraq plan "
  Al Jazeera English (June 30, 2008)
  • "An official US army account of the US-led Iraqi invasion and occupation has admitted that planning for the operation was flawed.
  • "The 700-page report, released on Monday, concludes that military and civilian leaders failed to prepare adequately for the post-war mission.
  • "It says the rapid military defeat of Saddam Hussein's forces led US policymakers to believe its post-war military scenario would prove equally easy...."
• "Army criticizes itself in Iraq invasion report"
  CNN (June 30, 2008)
  • "(CNN) -- The U.S. Army's official history of the Iraq war shows military chiefs made mistake after mistake in the early months of the conflict.
  • "Failures to recognize the chaos engulfing the country and to send in enough troops to restore order after the 2003 invasion have long been highlighted by critics, but a new report shows the Army assessing itself.
  • "Frank opinions from officers serving in the 18 months from the start of war to Iraqi elections in January 2005 reveal there were concerns at the time, not just about assumptions made by planners but at decisions taken once U.S.-led coalition forces had control of Iraq...."
• "Army study: Iraq occupation was understaffed"
  International Herald Tribune (June 30, 2008)
  • "DENVER: A nearly 700-page study released Sunday by the Army found that 'in the euphoria of early 2003,' U.S.-based commanders prematurely believed their goals in Iraq had been reached and did not send enough troops to handle the occupation.
  • "President George W. Bush's statement on May 1, 2003, that major combat operations were over reinforced that view, the study said.
  • "It was written by Donald P. Wright and Col. Timothy R. Reese of the Contemporary Operations Study Team at Fort Leavenworth, Kan., who said that planners who requested more troops were ignored and that commanders in Baghdad were replaced without enough of a transition and lacked enough staff.
• "New Public Military History Criticizes Pentagon on Post-Invasion Planning for Iraq"
  FOXNews (June 29, 2008)
  • "WASHINGTON — A new report by Army historians levels heavy, unvarnished criticism against Pentagon leadership for its failure to plan beyond the initial invasion of Iraq.
  • " 'On Point II: Transition to the New Campaign' - which outlines the 18 months following the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime - said too much focus was placed on a military victory, and not enough on post-war planning, due in part to optimism by the White House and the Pentagon that civilian agencies would take care much of the country's post war rebuilding...."
• "US army blames leaders over post-war Iraq"
  Guardian (UK) (June 29, 2008)
  "Military historians single out Rumsfeld and Franks
  "Too much focus on getting rid of Saddam, says study
  • "The US army has told of errors, poor planning and complacency among its own top commanders in a warts-and-all official history of the steep descent into violence that followed the Iraq war.
  • "In a 696-page account, army historians fault military and political leaders for focusing excessively on toppling Saddam Hussein in 2003 without looking towards a broader transition towards a stable society. Actions by the former defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld and the top US commander during the Iraq invasion, Tommy Franks, are singled out in the study, which was delayed for six months to allow senior army figures to review drafts.
  • " 'The transition to a new campaign was not well thought out, planned for and prepared for before it began,' says the history, On Point II: Transition to the New Campaign, published by an internal army thinktank called the contemporary operations study team. 'The assumptions about the nature of the post-Saddam Iraq on which the transition was planned proved to be largely incorrect.'..."

---

¹ It's quite probable that the idea of that "Mission Accomplished" banner came from "Navy officials on the carrier." (CNN, "White House pressed on 'mission accomplished' sign - Navy suggested it, White House made it, both sides say" (October 29, 2003))

And, the statement was correct. The mission, to remove Saddam Hussein from Iraq, had been accomplished.

As the President said that day,

• "...Our mission continues. Al Qaeda is wounded, not destroyed. The scattered cells of the terrorist network still operate in many nations, and we know from daily intelligence that they continue to plot against free people...."
• "...The war on terror is not over; yet it is not endless. We do not know the day of final victory, but we have seen the turning of the tide. No act of the terrorists will change our purpose, or weaken our resolve, or alter their fate. Their cause is lost. Free nations will press on to victory...."

That statement, "while viewed by some as tantamount to a declaration of victory," is, I think, rather mild. I remember how, almost five years ago, the stupidity, the arrogance, of the bad cowboy president was discussed in connection with that banner. What the president actually said on the deck of the Lincoln didn't match the 'stupid, arrogant Bush' model, so those details were largely forgotten.

The "Mission Accomplished" banner was, in retrospect, a mistake. Bush's visit to the USS Lincoln might have been better received, if the banner had read, "We're Sorry."

I can't help thinking that, if the self-defined best people in America had their way, Washington would have been criticized for claiming the mission of securing Yorktown as a victory, because the mission of promoting "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" had not been fully completed. (And it hasn't, to date: it's a sort of ongoing mission.)

² This, and a general impression I get from some of what I skimmed, make me concerned that America is close to repeating a mistake from Vietnam: inept 'experts' in Washington micro-managing field commanders.

Democracy: Zimbabwe Style

The odds are pretty good that Zimbabwe's President Mugabe will be re-elected today. That's a photo of somebody at a voting booth in Zimbabwe. The chap to the right, in riot gear, is making sure that everything's done properly.

Opposition candidate Tsvangirai's name is still on the ballot, since Zimbabwe's electoral officials said that his withdrawal from the race on Sunday came too late.

That's a nice gesture of due process in the election.

I still don't think the dude in armor is there to guarantee a free and open election, though.

On a more positive note, today's voting has proceeded with no reports of dismemberment or live cremation. In Zimbabwe, that's impressive.

Zimbabwe's election in the news:

• "Voters led to polls in Zimbabwe election"
  Associated Press (June 27, 2008)
• "Zimbabwe Election Marked By Intimidation"
  CBS News (June 27, 2008)

More at:

• "War on Terror: Zimbabwe Has Trouble, Too"
  (June 23, 2008)
• "Terrorism: Still Not a Muslim Monopoly"
  (June 11, 2008)

Burma / Myanmar / Myanma - Between Cyclones and Juntas, We Can't Ignore This

Whether you call it Burma, or Myanmar, or Myanma, people living in that country between India and Thailand are not having a good time right now.

Photo from AP, via Fox News, used w/o permission

Around 100,000 people were killed there by cyclone Nagris a few days ago.

If something isn't done about the lack of food, drinkable water, and medical supplies - and the presence of dead bodies - 1,500,000 could be dead soon, according to Oxfam¹ and the British government. (Guardian (UK) (May 11, 2008))

I've posted about the mess in Myanmar before ("United Nations Refuses Aid to Burma, or Myanmar, or Myanma" (May 9, 2008)). Today, a selection of headlines gives a pretty good idea of what's happening:

• "Myanmar holds vote on constitution"
  International Herald Tribune (May 9, 2008)
• "Constitutional referendum still the priority for Myanmar leaders"
  International Herald Tribune (May 9, 2008)
• "Cyclone overshadows Myanmar referendum"
  CNN (May 10, 2008)
• "Myanmar junta hands out aid boxes with generals' names"
  Yahoo! News / Associated Press (May 10, 2008)
• "Boat carrying aid for Myanmar cyclone victims sinks"
  SFGate.com San Francisco Chronicle / Associated Press (May 11, 2008)
• "Myanmar holds referendum despite post-cyclone chaos"
  The China Post / Reuters & Associated Press (May 11, 2008)

Cyclone Nagris, the SPDC, and the War on Terror:
We Can't Ignore People in Trouble

The "We" here may be taken as Americans, or, my preference, anyone who believes that people should not have to put up with tyrants.

Photo from The China Post, used w/o permission

Everybody seems to want "democracy" these days, and the military junta running Burma / Myanmar is no exception. See the smiling people in that photo? We're told that they were participating in yesterday's election in Myanmar. And, in their position, with their sort of leaders, with a camera pointed at me, I'd probably smile, too.

Burma Background

The people there elected members for the People's Assembly or Pyithu Hluttaw:

Party	Seats
(opposition) National League for Democracy 392	392
(opposition) Shan Nationalities League for Democracy	23
(pro-government) National Unity Party	10
other	60

Chairman of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) Senior Geneneral Than Shwe and the rest of the junta hasn't let the People's Assembly convene yet, but they say they'll have another election for membership in 2010.

Burma / Myanmar has been getting along without a constitution. The junta suspended the old one in 1974. However, a national convention got together in 1988 to set up principles for drafting a new constitution. That convention didn't include representatives from major democratic or ethnic majority (not a typo: majority) groups.

The junta's constitutional drafting committee started work on a new and improved constitution in December, 2007.

(from "The World Factbook" (CIA (updated May 1, 2008))

Elections

Yesterday, people in Burma / Myanmar voted on the junta's new constitution. "Widespread rumors say the results have already been fixed to deliver an 84.6 percent vote in favor of the constitution." (CNN). I wasn't terribly surprised to read that "witnesses and local officials who watched the local counting of votes Saturday say the vote appeared to average 80 percent to 90 percent in favor of the draft charter." (The China Post)

The constitution that appears headed for a landslide victory "guarantees 25 percent of parliamentary seats to the military and allows the president to hand over all power to the military in a state of emergency." (CNN)

Perhaps I'm being too pessimistic, but my guess is that an "emergency" will happen a few days to a month after the 2010 elections.

Burma, Responsibility, and Global Concerns

Cyclone Nagris and the State Peace and Development Council don't make much of a difference in the small central Minnesota town that I call home. Not directly, anyway.

That vote may not have been "fixed:" not post-poll, anyway. The powers that be in Burma have seen to it that their subjects have a clear understanding of what's at stake.

• " 'To approve the state constitution is the national duty of the entire people,' the state-run newspaper New Light of Myanmar said in a front-page headline Friday."
  (International Herald Tribune)
• " 'We have already seen regional commanders putting their names on the side of aid shipments from Asia, saying this was a gift from them and then distributing it in their region,' said Mark Farmaner, director of Burma Campaign UK, which campaigns for human rights and democracy in the country.
  " 'It is not going to areas where it is most in need,' he said in London."
  (Yahoo! News)
• "Aye Aye Mar, a 36-year-old homemaker, looked frightened when asked if she thought anyone would vote against it.
  " 'One vote of "No" will not make a difference,' she whispered, her eyes darting around to see if anyone was watching. Then she raised her voice to declare: "I'm saying "Yes" to the constitution.' "
  (International Herald Tribune)

I agree with the poet: "No man is an island...."² Hundreds of thousands of people dying because their rulers are either incompetent, depraved, or distracted is something I can't ignore. "I am involved in mankind". And, sooner or later, ripples from the lands around Pathein and Bago will reach my home, here by the Sauk River.

Right now, hundreds of thousands of people desperately need food, drinking water, medical supplies and clothing. Many will die if they don't get it.

Their need for assistance, in my opinion, outweighs the junta's need for maintaining power over their subjects.

Being ruled by tyrants didn't make people in Burma the target of Cyclone Nargis. But now that the storm is over, their government is very much part of their problem. Unhappily, Burma / Myanmar isn't the only country that needs a different sort of leadership.

I suggest that, when considering and debating the merits of military force, these ideas should be kept in mind:

• Tyrants often don't have the best interests of their subjects in mind
• Dictators don't, as a rule, give up power, no matter how nicely they're asked
• History suggests that force must be used to unseat a tyranical regime
• Even when tyrants aren't actively killing their subjects, their preoccupation with personal power inhibits maintenance of vital infrastructures

The point I'm making is that sometimes being involved in military action isn't the worst thing that can happen to people.

---

Donations for Burma / Myanmar Relief Being Taken:
Some of this Lot Might Help

Lists of agencies that accept donations, and might help people in Burma, have been published on

• MSNBC
• International Herald Tribune

Both news outlets got their information from InterAction, "the largest coalition of U.S.-based international nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) focused on the world’s poor and most vulnerable people."

¹ ("Oxfam International is a confederation of 13 organizations working together with over 3,000 partners in more than 100 countries to find lasting solutions to poverty and injustice.")

²"No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friend's or of thine own were: any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for whom the bells tolls; it tolls for thee."
excerpt from Devotions Upon Emergent Occasions: XVII. MEDITATION, John Donne (Project Gutenberg ebook)

'Will the Real Islam, Please Stand Up?'

(Hats off to "To Tell the Truth" for contributing "will the real [name], please stand up?" to American culture.)

Earlier today, I wrote about a remarkably civil Islamic response to Islamic images which some Muslims think are un-Islamic ("A Muslim Protest: Peaceful, Civil, Courteous").

Now, I read about Al Qaeda's kiddie program: children, age 6 to 14, trained to be good Muslims by killing infidels for Allah and Al Qaeda. (Details, and a link to clips from the Al Qaeda video, is at "Al Qaeda Trains Young Boys as Terrorists, Tapes Show.")

No wonder it's hard for an outsider to figure out what Islam is, and what it stands for. Some devout Muslims paint religious pictures that other devout Muslims say are un-Islamic. Meanwhile, still other Muslims are teaching kids to use automatic weapons, rocket-propelled grenade launchers, and suicide vests.

The impression I get is that Muslims believe whatever the nearest Imam says, and that the Imam comes up with 'true Islam' based on what Imam friends of his say when they get together, modified by the local culture, and (on occasion) his own psychiatric conditions.

Being an American, I'm inclined to assume that 'democracy' is a good thing, associated with good things like

• Responsibility
• Grassroots common sense
• (Occasionally) responsive government

The way Islam has evolved, with beliefs determined in part by local and regional groups, may be an example of why assumptions should be examined and tested from time to time.

Related posts, on Islam, Christianity, Religion, Culture and the War on Terror.

Pakistan's Musharraf Restores Constitution: It's a Start

I'll admit to mild surprise.

Today, Pakistan's president Pervez Musharraf ended his emergency rule of Pakistan, restoring the constitution.

A cynic might assume that he had the constitution tweaked to his (current) satisfaction.

And, elections will be held soon. "The caretaker government is under oath to hold free, fair, transparent and impartial elections to put the country back on track," according to a Pakistani government spokesman. Not surprisingly, there's concern that the election will be "flawed."

I'm no political expert, but I think flaws are a near-certainty. I doubt that there's been a 'flawless' election in any country, in any era. Face it: human beings don't do things 'flawlessly.'

As far as the Pakistani election goes, I'd settle for 'good enough.'

Elections in Pakistan? Be Careful What You Wish For

This isn't one of Pakistan's happier times. President / General Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan has suspended Pakistan's constitution, and is in the process of imprisoning people who don't agree with him, and have said so publicly.

No problem, Musharraf says. He'll step down as general and have elections: soon.

American Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and others, are trying to talk Msharraf into turning that promise into action.

Meanwhile, Osama bin Laden is quite possibly hiding in the Pakistan/Afghanistan border mountains. And a recent poll shows that bin Laden is more popular in Pakistan than Musharraf.

So, as attractive as the "Vox populi, vox Dei" is as a phrase, the "vox populi" in this case might bring a little "dei" to power who really shouldn't be given nuclear weapons.

Finally, Musharraf isn't the only potentially legitimate leader in Pakistan. Pakistan's former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto decided rather abruptly to skip her trip abroad, giving her husband and three children in Dubai a miss for now.

Not a bad idea, I'd say, considering what's going on in Pakistan. Assuming that those elections happen, Bhutto seems to have a good chance of winning. Reports say that she's a great deal more popular than Musharraf, too.