Ukraine in a Changing World

In a way, it's business-as-usual.

Protestors waving flags; two groups, two national flags; a major power conducts military exercises nearby, saying that it wants to avert a crisis.

Depending on who's talking: folks in Ukraine decided that they want to joint the European Union; lackeys of capitalist oppressors seek to enslave Ukraine; or [religious group] wants to kill [religious group].

I've got my own opinion, but it's not quite that dramatic.

Nostalgia, Nationalism, and All That

I'm sure that quite a few folks in Ukraine were quite satisfied with the status quo before the Soviet Union fizzled out in 1991: and would dearly like the 'good old days' to return. Others are probably as dubious about dealing with foreigners as national chauvinists anywhere else.

Others, in the Crimea, are Russian: the way I'd be Norwegian if my mother hadn't married an Irishman with Campbell ancestors. Some of them probably want their part of Ukraine to be part of Russia. I sympathize with them, to a limited extent.

The last I checked, about half of the folks living in Ukraine are Ukrainian Orthodox, which is probably the "wrong" term in someone's opinion; with the rest mostly Christians, Jews and the ubiquitous "other." I'm pretty sure that all of the above have a few hotheads in their number, but that's human nature. My opinion.

Ancestors, Treaties, and Learning

I'm an American with ancestors in Norway; Ireland; Scotland, and, possibly, England. The latter is speculation, a possible explanation for why an Irish family would deliberately retain "Richard" as a name for their sons: and that's almost another topic.

I like being an American, but don't think my country can do no wrong: or no right. I'm pretty sure the same can be said for any nation: although some have gone through awkward phases.

My country finally got around to honoring some treaties made with folks living west of the Appalachians. Maybe Russia will eventually learn that some folks on their borders don't want to be part of Russia: and that conquering those folks isn't a sensible option.

On the other hand, although I can understand a "land of my fathers" sort of patriotism: my ancestors are scattered over so much of northwestern Europe that I don't share much of the feeling.

Looking Ahead: Or Not

I don't think the European Union will endure in its present form for more than a few decades. But as the start of a united Europe, it's doing a pretty good job. Just getting Germans, Frenchmen, Belgians, Austrians, and all the rest to stop killing each other for several decades was a major accomplishment.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, I think we're seeing what happens when folks who understand that the world has changed won't cooperate with those who desperately want the "good old days."

In the news:

• "Ukraine warns Russia after gunmen seize Crimea parliament"
  Alessandra Prentice, Alissa de Carbonnel, Reuters (February 27, 2014)
• "West warns Russia amid rising tensions in Crimea"
  BBC News (February 27, 2014)
• "Russia flexes military muscle as tensions rise in Ukraine's Crimea region"
  Laura Smith-Spark, Phil Black, Frederik Pleitgen, CNN (February 26, 2014)

Somewhat-related posts:

• "Kiev Police: When Crowd Control Goes Horribly Wrong"
  (December 1, 2013)
• "Dozens Dead at Domodedovo - Observations and Opinions"
  (January 25, 2011)
• "Police Abuse: America isn't Russia"
  (February 19, 2010)
• "Russia: Ukraine Did Something Bad - Who Could Have Predicted This?"
  (October 2, 2008)
• "If You Liked Georgia, You'll Love Ukraine"
  (September 8, 2008)

¹ Excerpts from the news:

"Ukraine warns Russia after gunmen seize Crimea parliament"
Alessandra Prentice, Alissa de Carbonnel, Reuters (February 27, 2014)

"Armed men seized the parliament in Ukraine's Crimea region on Thursday and raised the Russian flag, alarming Kiev's new rulers, who urged Moscow not move troops out of its navy base on the peninsula.

"Crimea, the only Ukrainian region with an ethnic Russian majority, is the last big bastion of opposition to the new leadership in Kiev since President Viktor Yanukovich was ousted at the weekend and provides a base for Russia's Black Sea fleet...."

---

"West warns Russia amid rising tensions in Crimea"
BBC News (February 27, 2014)

"Western nations have called on Russia to ease tensions in Ukraine's Crimea region after armed men seized the local parliament and raised the Russian flag.

"Russia also scrambled fighter jets along its borders as part of military exercises it announced a day earlier.

"Moscow said it was willing to work with the West on averting a crisis, but warned foreign powers against taking decisions on behalf of Ukrainians.

"Meanwhile, the ousted Ukrainian president is reported to be in Russia...."

---

"Russia flexes military muscle as tensions rise in Ukraine's Crimea region"
Laura Smith-Spark, Phil Black, Frederik Pleitgen, CNN (February 26, 2014)

"Russia ordered surprise military exercises on Ukraine's doorstep Wednesday as tensions in that country's southern Crimea region simmered, with pro-Russian demonstrators facing off against rival protesters in the city of Simferopol.

"As the mood soured among the thousands rallying in front of the Crimean parliament building in Simferopol, some scuffles broke out.

"One group waved Ukrainian flags and shouted 'Crimea is not Russia,' while the other held Russian flags aloft and shouted 'Crimea is Russia,' images broadcast by Crimean TV channel ATR showed. As the crowd became more agitated, a line of police moved in to divide the groups.

"Local leaders sought to calm the mood, urging the protesters to go home and resist provocations.

"One man died around the time of the protests in front of Parliament, the Crimean Ministry of Health said on its website. The man had no visible signs of injury, and early indications point to a heart attack, it said. Seven people sought medical help...."

---

Dead Bodies at the University: Business as Usual in Syria

Several dozen folks were killed in a series of explosions at the University of Aleppo. I doubt that their friends and relatives are comforted by the idea that this sort of thing happens fairly often in Syria.

The explosions were probably:

• An accident
  • Or not
• Set off by
  • Rebels
  • The alleged Syrian government
  • Someone else

Syria is a mess, and who did what to who and why is hard to sort out.

From the BBC:

"Syria crisis: Dozens killed by Aleppo university blasts"
BBC News (January 15, 2013)
"More than 50 people have been killed by two blasts in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo, activists and officials say.

"The explosions reportedly struck an area between the University of Aleppo's halls of residence and the architecture faculty on the first day of exams.

"The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights put the death toll at 52, but Aleppo's governor said 82 people had died.

"State TV said 'terrorists' had launched rockets at the campus, but activists blamed missiles fired by warplanes...."

I'm slightly more inclined to believe folks that state TV calls "terrorists" in this case: but I really don't know who's telling how much of the truth. It does occur to me that dead students gave Syrian enforcers a dandy excuse to to attack enemies of the state.

Syria has had the sort of "stable" government that plagued much of the 20th century, and I've been over that before.

The situation in and around Syria is complicated, putting it mildly. At the UN, 50 countries want the Syrian conflict referred to the International Criminal Court; and Russia doesn't. Maybe Russia's government is right: then again, maybe not.

Ideally, Syria's ruler would recognize that some of his subjects have grievances: and deal with issues calmly and sensibly. We don't live in an idea world, and that's not happening.

Worse, from the point of view of folks who want 'stability,' folks in Syria and elsewhere have found out about freedom and the Internet. Quite a few people who aren't running 'stable' countries have gotten tired of reforms that never came.

And that's another topic.

Somewhat-related posts:

• Syria
  • "Dead Syrians, Stability, and Getting a Grip"
    (June 9, 2012)
  • "Arab League: Syria Suspended - My Take"
    (November 13, 2011)
  • "North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, Brinksmanship, and Miscalculation"
    (May 27, 2009)
  • "Syria Accuses America, North Korea Threatens South Korea: Nothing New Here"
    (October 28, 2008)
  • "Syria, the IAEA, an Inspection, and a Missing Reactor"
    (June 4, 2008)
• The world
  
  • "Tolerance, Change, America, and the World"
    (March 22, 2012)
  • "Indonesia, Islam, Adultery, Stoning, Burkinis, Divisiveness and the West"
    (October 13, 2009)
  • " 'America Tortured Prisoners' - Here We Go Again"
    (August 25, 2009)
  • "Pakistan, India, Mumbai, Nuclear Weapons, and Pashtunistan: Simple This Isn't"
    (December 27, 2008)
  • "EEEK! Guns! Hoplophobia and Foreign Policy"
    (December 23, 2007)

Dead Syrians, Stability, and Getting a Grip

First, some news and views. Then I'll opine a bit.

"U.N. observers in Syria see gruesome evidence of a new massacre"
Los Angeles Times (June 8, 2012)

"Bullet-pocked homes and bloodstained walls. Shell casings littering the ground in a ghost town still smoldering from the onslaught.

"A United Nations observer team on Friday finally reached the site of Syria's latest apparent massacre, a now-abandoned farming village where opposition activists accuse pro-government forces of killing dozens of civilians this week in an artillery bombardment and grisly door-to-door executions.

" 'Young children, infants, my brother, his wife and seven children … all dead,' said a grieving man in a video distributed by the U.N. 'I will show you the blood. They burned his house.'..."

---

"The U.N.'s Syria disaster"
The Post's View, The Washington Post (June 8, 2012)

"THIS MAY BE remembered as the week in which the illusion that the bloodshed in Syria could be stopped by United Nations diplomats was destroyed once and for all. Inside the country, the killing sharply and sickeningly accelerated. In Washington, U.N. envoy Kofi Annan finally had to acknowledge that his calamitous peace initiative, which has provided the United States and its allies with an excuse for inaction for the past 11 weeks, 'may be dead.'

"Mr. Annan's concession was forced in part by the latest massacre by a government-backed militia. In a village near Hama, some 80 people were butchered and their homes burned...."

---

"In Its Unyielding Stance on Syria, Russia Takes Substantial Risks in Middle East"
Ellen Barry, News Analysis, The New York Times (June 8, 2012)

"MOSCOW - The international deadlock over Syria has, in a dreadful way, provided balm for old grievances in this city. After years of fuming about Western-led campaigns to force leaders from power, Russia has seized the opportunity to make its point heard.

"This time, its protests cannot be set aside as they were when NATO began airstrikes in Libya or when Western-led coalitions undertook military assaults in Iraq and Serbia. Instead, the international community has come to Russia’s doorstep.

" On Friday, a top State Department official visited Moscow, presumably seeking to persuade the Kremlin to reconsider its stance and contribute to an effort to engineer a transition from the rule of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, a longtime Russian ally. In remarks after the meeting, Russia's top negotiator was implacable, telling a reporter that Moscow’s position was 'a matter of principle.'

"Russia's leaders have said repeatedly that their goal is to guard against instability, not to support Mr. Assad...."

---

"United Nations frets about 'sitting duck' monitors in Syria"
Tim Witcher, The Daily Star (UK) (June 9, 2012)

"The United Nations is increasingly worried about the unarmed observers it has sent into Syria to monitor the war between President Bashar Assad's troops and opposition rebels.

"The U.N. Supervision Mission in Syria is caught between hostile troops accused of firing at its patrols and increasingly bitter Syrians who cannot understand why it has not halted the bloodshed, officials said.

"Susan Rice, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, likened the monitors to '300 sitting ducks in a shooting gallery, one IED from a disaster,' at a recent U.N. Security Council meeting...."

---

The Los Angeles Times seems to be doing fairly straightforward reporting. And, sadly, Syria's boss has another mass death of civilians to explain.

The Washington Post's op-ed may have something to do with the upcoming November presidential election: or not. Either way, it looks like the W.P. has decided that asking Syria's boss to start acting nice isn't working.

The New York Times' op-ed seems to imply that (nice) Russia is protecting the world against the (nasty) west:

"...After years of fuming about Western-led campaigns to force leaders from power, Russia has seized the opportunity to make its point heard...."
(The New York Times)

I could be wrong about that, of course.

The Daily Star brings up an important point: the U.N. observers are in an awkward position. Folks in Syria understandably seem to want the observers to 'do something.' Which is frustrating, since the U.N. observers are doing just that: observing.

And since even Syria's neighbors don't particularly like outsiders observing what happens to Syrians when they're not properly appreciative of Asad, the U.N. observers are under attack themselves.

What continues to impress me about the situation in Syria is that, as far as I've seen, nobody's figured out a way to blame the Jews. As I've said before:

"...this is, I think, a hopeful sign. Maybe more folks are starting to consider the idea of living with neighbors: instead of killing them.

"It's a start, and that's yet another topic."
(May 26, 2012)

Finally, about Russia's decision to defend Asad's regime: Stability is nice. But it seems to me that Syrians who aren't on Asad's 'preferred' list don't want "stability." They want a government that doesn't kill its own citizens.

I think that's a reasonable desire.

Somewhat-related posts:

• Mostly Syria
  • "Killings in Houla: There's Hope in What Wasn't Said"
    (May 26, 2012)
  • "Syrian Ambassador: Reactor? That's No Reactor"
    (April 24, 2008)
  • "Satellite Images of Syrian Reactor / Warehouse"
    (October 25, 2007)
  • "Syria Accuses America, North Korea Threatens South Korea: Nothing New Here"
    (October 28, 2008)
    Particularly
    • Syria: Americans Attack Farm, Kill Completely Innocent People
  • "Nuclear Stockpile Bombed?"
    (September 16, 2007)
• Mostly Russia
  • "Russian Submarines Near America: There's Probably a Reason"
    (August 4, 2009)
  • "'The Americans Hanged Saddam Hussein:' Who Knew?"
    (November 14, 2008)
  • "Russia Is Peace-Loving, Has No Territorial Ambitions: and Georgia is America's Fault"
    (October 19, 2008)
  • "Russia, Iran, Nuclear Weapons: Not Much Has Changed"
    (September 27, 2008)
  • " 'Quagmire's' Back: Georgia, Russia, NATO, Bush, and the Blame Game"
    (August 24, 2008)
• Autocrats and a changing world
  • "Six Battalions, the United Nations, ' - - - and it is the Fault of the Jews' "
    (May 2, 2012)
  • "Arab League: Syria Suspended - My Take"
    (November 13, 2011)
  • "Libya, Syria, Bahrain: Journalists Uncooperative; 'the Masses' Worse"
    (March 29, 2011)
  • " 'The Jews Blew Up Our Reactor
    (Which Does Not Exist)' "
    (October 17, 2007)
  • "Doctors, Terrorists, and the Proletariat: What's a Person to Think?"
    (July 3, 2007)
• Today, and looking ahead
  • "Still Blogging About Anachronisms, Autocrats, and America"
    (October 8, 2011)
    Particularly
    • 'Wouldn't It be Nice - - -?'
  • "9/11, Just War, and 'Death to Mickey Mouse' "
    A Catholic Citizen in America (September 11, 2011)
    Particularly
    • The Parliament of Man - - -
  • "Libya, Interpol, and a Really Big Job"
    (September 9, 2011)
    Particularly
    • Footnote 2
  • " 'Just War:' Unpleasant, but Not a Contradiction in Terms"
    A Catholic Citizen in America (March 22, 2011)
  • "U.N. Condemns (What Else?) Israel: This Time it's Over an 'Aid Complex' "
    (January 15, 2009)

Dozens Dead at Domodedovo - Observations and Opinions

Killing about 35 people at an airport is, I think, an act of terrorism.

This particular incident happened at the Domodedovo International Airport, which serves Moscow. The Russian president blames the airport's management, a variety of bloggers blame a variety of people and institutions - and I've got my own opinion.

Although Domodedovo International Airport management probably shares some of the responsibility: I think whoever arranged for the explosives to be carried into the terminal and set off is the chief culprit.

Maybe that's 'simplistic.'

Terrorism: Not So Much Fun Anymore?

One thing that sets this bombing apart from terrorist acts of decades past is that there doesn't seem to be a scramble to claim responsibility for it. I don't think that's because terrorists are becoming nicer and feel bad when the CIA, the Republican Party, Big Oil - or those lizard people - force them to kill people. I do think that an increased willingness by America and other countries to hunt down the people responsible has taken some of the fun out of saying 'we did it.'

Definitely the Work of Chechen Rebels: Or Somebody Else

There's a reasonable suspicion that whoever killed all those travelers was under the impression that mass murder would help Chechnya gain independence.

Right now, Chechnya is a small region that's part of Russia - because Russia's leaders want the region, apparently. Some folks in Chechnya don't like being part of Russia. Can't say that I blame them. On the other hand, I don't think killing folks who probably didn't care whether Chechnya was independent or not was a good idea. At all.

Or maybe the blast wasn't political at all. Maybe somebody didn't like the decor at Domodedovo International Airport, and was deadly-serious about interior design.

Unlikely? Of course.

Blaming Airport Management: Justified?

When I saw headlines about the Russian president blaming Domodedovo management for the bombing, I thought it might be a case of finding a scapegoat.

Turns out, whoever's running the airport may have made a really bad decision, when balancing traveler convenience and safety:

"...It said the security agencies , who were aware of the possible terror attacks, were looking for 'black widows' of the slain militants from the Caucasus, who had carried out all suicide attacks in past, including twin blasts in Moscow metro stations in March 2010 that left 39 people dead. According to Rossiya channel, police were also looking for four men suspected of involvement in Monday's blast in the international arrival lounge of the airport. 'They were spotted on the CCTV footage,' the TV channel said.

"The absence of security checks at the international arrivals gate was used by the alleged terrorists to sneak in with explosives, it reported...."
(Times of India)

No security checks at the arrivals gate?! That sounds - on the face of it - utterly daft.

I don't have enough facts to be sure - but the fact is that there are around 35 people who aren't alive today: and it looks like their deaths could have been prevented.

Related posts:

• "Police Abuse: America isn't Russia"
  (February 19, 2010)
• "Russian Train Derailment: Sabotage on the Moscow-St. Petersburg Line"
  (November 28, 2009)
• "Russian Submarines Near America: There's Probably a Reason"
  (August 4, 2009)

In the news:

• "Interpol to help probe Moscow bombing"
  hindustantimes.com (January 26, 2011)
• " 'Retribution inevitable' for terror attack, vows Putin"
  Times of India (January 26, 2011)
• " 'Black widow' carrying bag triggered Moscow blast?"
  Times of India (January 26, 2011)

About date stamps for the news links: It's 'tomorrow' by now, where the Hindustan Times and Times of India are located.

Background:

• "Chechnya Background Readings"
  Military, GlobalSecurity.org

President Lech Kaczynski's Undelivered Speech: and a Lesson to Learn

I don't, as a rule, copy my sources in their entirety.

In the case of the late Polish President, Lech Kaczynski's undelivered speech, I'll make an exception.

I've found a number of copies - and versions - of the speech's English translation. Some which seem to have been: "Edited" would be a polite euphemism.

The following copy is on the thenews.pl website: an English-language news site covering Poland. I checked the URL out: it's registered by an outfit in Poland:


AZ.PL Spolka Jawna (AZ.PL General Partnership)
ul. Sosnowa 6a
71-468 Szczecin
Polska (Poland)

A Polish address doesn't guarantee authenticity, of course: but this translation includes material which some non-Polish sources omitted.

Besides, I think people living and working in Poland may be somewhat more likely to understand Polish than, say, an American in Paris. They may also be a bit more interested in accurately transmitting the thoughts of their late president than foreigners would be. For these reasons, I think this translation may be a trifle closer to what the late President Kaczynski intended to say about Katyn.

"President Kaczynski's last speech"
Polskie Radio S.A. (April 12, 2010)

"Below is the text of the speech which Lech Kaczynski, who died on Saturday, was going to deliver at the 70th anniversary ceremony of the Katyn massacre."

" 'Dear Representatives of the Katyn Families. Ladies and Gentlemen. In April 1940 over twenty-one thousand Polish prisoners from the NKVD camps and prisons were killed. The genocide was committed at Stalin's will and at the Soviet Union's highest authority's command."

"The alliance between the Third Reich and the Soviet Union, the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact and the Soviet attack on Poland on 17 September 1939 reached a terrifying climax in the Katyn massacre. Not only in the Katyn forest, but also in Tver, Kcharkiv and other known, and unknown, execution sites citizens of the Second Republic of Poland, people who formed the foundation of our statehood, who adamantly served the motherland, were killed."

"At the same time families of the murdered and thousands of citizens of the eastern territory of the pre-war Poland were sent into exile deep into the Soviet Union, where their indescribable suffering marked the path of the Polish Golgotha of the East."

"The most tragic station on that path was Katyn. Polish officers, priests, officials, police officers, border and prison guards were killed without a trial or sentence. They fell victims to an unspeakable war. Their murder was a violation of the rights and conventions of the civilized world. Their dignity as soldiers, Poles and people, was insulted. Pits of death were supposed to hide the bodies of the murdered and the truth about the crime for ever."

"The world was supposed to never find out. The families of the victims were deprived of the right to mourn publicly, to proudly commemorate their relatives. Ground covered the traces of crime and the lie was supposed to erase it from people's memory."

"An attempt to hide the truth about Katyn – a result of a decision taken by those who masterminded the crime – became one of the foundations of the communists' policy in an after-war Poland: a founding lie of the People's Republic of Poland."

"It was the time when people had to pay a high price for knowing and remembering the truth about Katyn. However, the relatives of the murdered and other courageous people kept the memory, defended it and passed it on to next generations of Poles. They managed to preserve the memory of Katyn in the times of communism and spread it in the times of free and independent Poland. Therefore, we owe respect and gratitude to all of them, especially to the Katyn Families. On behalf of the Polish state, I offer sincere thanks to you, that by defending the memory of your relatives you managed to save a highly important dimension of our Polish consciousness and identity."

"Katyn became a painful wound of Polish history, which poisoned relations between Poles and Russians for decades. Let's make the Katyn wound finally heal and cicatrize. We are already on the way to do it. We, Poles, appreciate what Russians have done in the past years. We should follow the path which brings our nations closer, we should not stop or go back."

"All circumstances of the Katyn crime need to be investigated and revealed. It is important that innocence of the victims is officially confirmed and that all files concerning the crime are open so that the Katyn lie could disappear for ever. We demand it, first of all, for the sake of the memory of the victims and respect for their families' suffering. We also demand it in the name of common values, which are necessary to form a foundation of trust and partnership between the neighbouring nations in the whole Europe."

"Let's pay homage to the murdered and pray upon their bodies. Glory to the Heroes! Hail their memory!' (mg)"
[copied from http://www.thenews.pl/national/artykul129342_president-kaczynskis-last-speech.html April 18, 2010. Edited: blank lines between paragraphs were deleted; " ’ " replaced with " ' "]

So What?

A speech that wasn't read by a dead Pole may not seem either particularly important, or relevant to a blog about the war on terror.

I think it's both.

The speech which the late President Lech Kaczynski intended to deliver discusses an atrocity which is of great importance to Poles. The Soviet Union's decision to pretend that the Katyn massacre never happened has gotten in the way of Russia-Poland relations.

In a more general sense, the Katyn cover-up is, I think, a pretty good example of why it's a really, really bad idea to try pretending that embarrassing things didn't happened.

Aside from getting in the way of dealing with people in other countries - who may have at least an inkling of what's being concealed - suppression of inconvenient realities makes it impossible to learn from mistakes.

The American military have been known to make mistakes. When that happens - the mistakes are scrutinized, analyzed, recorded - and made part of officer's training. I think that approach makes sense. (June 30, 2008)

I think one of the strengths of America is not that we make mistakes - everybody does that. It's that, once we recognize that we've done something wrong: we make sure that generations that follow won't forget how we screwed up. Embarrassing, and occasionally over-done: but I'd rather have that, than a nice, well-run country where all the masses hear about is how wonderful their leaders are.

America isn't the only country that's learning to learn from mistakes, of course. I think it's an idea that's catching on globally.

About time, too.

Related posts:

• "Polish President Lech Kaczynski Dead: Poland, Russia and Videos"
  (April 10, 2010)
Police Abuse: America isn't Russia"
(February 19, 2010)
• "Abu Ghraib: Abuse and Sexual Humiliation by American Soldiers in the News Again"
  (January 25, 2009)
• "Army Report: Big Mistakes in Iraq!"
  (June 30, 2008)
• "Japanese Court, Okinawa, Kenzaburo Oe: There's a Lesson Here"
  (April 5, 2008)

In the news:

• "President Kaczynski's last speech"
  Polskie Radio S.A. (April 12, 2010)

More:

• "The undelivered speech of President Kaczyński"
  Deacon’s Blog (April 18th, 2010)
  • Copy of the translated speech was received via email from the Polish Community Center in Albany, NY
    • Thanks, deacon_jim, for the information!
• "At Katyn Memorial, Putin Calls For Poland, Russia To 'Move Toward Each Other' "
  GlobalSecurity.org (April 7, 2010)
• "UN should deal with attempts to rewrite WWII results - Medvedev"
  GlobalSecurity.org (September 24, 2009)
• "Russia, Poland Feed Controversy Over World War II"
  GlobalSecurity.org (September 1, 2009)
• "Human Rights Monitor"
  Public Eye, GlobalSecurity.org
  • WWII backgrounder
    • Focus on reluctance to believe reports of German national socialist party activities
    • With mention of Katyn incident

---

A tip of the hat to deacon_jim, on Twitter, for the heads-up on the Polish president's undelivered speech. (And responding to my query about the origins of the speech on his blog (April 20, 2010))

Normally, I wouldn't copy an entire document. But with so many versions floating around, I wanted at least one copy to come from a Polish source: with links and a citation.

Besides, commercial websites sometimes remove content after it's become 'old news.' I did not want what may well be an adequate translation to disappear.

Polish President Lech Kaczynski Dead: Poland, Russia and Videos

You've probably heard the news by now.

"Polish President Lech Kaczynski was killed early Saturday along with his wife, several top military officials, and the head of the national bank when their plane crashed at a western Russian airport, officials said.

" 'There are no survivors,' said Sergey Antufyev, the governor of Smolensk, where the plane was trying to land when it crashed. Russian emergency officials said 97 people died. Kaczynski was 60.

"Parliament Speaker Bronislaw Komorowski took over as acting president and declared it 'a time for national mourning.'

"Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the country would hold two minutes of silence at midday Sunday for the victims. Russia has declared Monday as a day of mourning.

"World leaders pay tribute to Kaczynski

"Kaczynski had been traveling with the Polish delegation to Russia for the 70th anniversary of the massacre of Polish prisoners of war in the village of Katyn. Some 20,000 Polish officers were executed there during World War II...."
(CNN)

First, my condolences and prayers are with the people who died in that crash, their family and friends.

The Katyn Massacre, Poland, Russia, and a Burning Wreckage

"Katyn" is a name that quite a few Poles remember. And for good reason:

"...Of all the crimes in World War II, the most puzzling has been the massacre known as "Katyn Forest." After the defeat of Polish forces at the hands of the Nazi and Soviet forces in the autumn of 1939, the Soviet side received a majority of the Polish army's officer corps. When Germany turned against its former ally, the Germans came across mass graves in the Katyn Forest. In 1943 the Germans exhumed around 4000 corpses, and made it public as irrefutable proof of Soviet barbarity. In 1944 Soviet authorities exhumed the bodies again and thereafter steadfastly maintained that the Germans had in fact committed the crime. Not until the fall of the Soviet Union did the new leaders of Russia acknowledge that in 1940 their government had ordered the murder of 27,000 Polish officers...."
(GlobalSecurity.org)

More specifically, Josef Stalin had signed the order to kill those Poles. (GlobalSecurity.org) Embarrassing, rather.

But, that was the Soviet Union. Russia has some new faces in leadership positions now: and seems eager for everybody to put that sort of thing behind them and accept the new Russia.

Forgiveness is a good idea, I think. On the other hand, killing 27,000 people that way is something that their surviving family and friends aren't likely to forget all that soon.

"Heavy fog & human error possible causes of Lech Kaczynski plane crash in Russia"


RussiaToday, YouTube (April 10, 2010)
video, 7:53

"The President of Poland, and his wife have died in a plane crashed in Western Russia. At this early stage, investigators say it's likely human error was the cause of the crash. For more on the story we can now cross live to our correspondents Daniel Bushell outside the Russian Foreign Minister and Katerina Azarova near the Kremlin."

'Everybody Knows' What Them Roosians are Like?

I don't know how many folks here in America will immediately assume that anything with "Russia" in the source's name is all lies. I recommend viewing - and listening to - the Russia Today video. There's a pretty good review of the Katyn Massacre in the last half. The Katyn Massacre is one of those 'non-events that never happened' - but someone neglected to have the documents shredded. Stalin's signature was on at least one of them.

A bit of an embarrassment, putting it mildly, for the worker's paradise: but that was then, this is now. I'm no big fan of the current Russian regime: but there are a few new people in leadership positions, and - stating the obvious - this isn't the 20th century any more.

I've run out of time for the moment: I plan to come back, later today, to wrap up this post.

Over Eight Dozen Killed: The Smolensk Crash Will be In News For a While

News and op-ed, of course: together with the usual mix of the two.

• "Kaczynski: a 'combative' patriot"
  Deutsche Welle (April 10, 2010)
  • "Polish President Lech Kaczynski was a "combative European" and a patriot. Saturday’s disaster in Smolensk brought his life to an unexpected and tragic end...."
• "Kaczynski Often a Source of Tension Within E.U."
  The New York Times (April 10, 2010)
  • "Lech Kaczynski, the president of Poland, died Saturday after his plane crashed on route to Katyn, in western Russia, where he was due to commemorate the murder 70 years ago of thousands of Polish officers, according to the Polish foreign ministry. He was 60 years old...."

The next paragraphs in The New York Times explains why the late President was a "source of tension" in the European Union:

"...Mr. Kaczynski was elected president in 2005 as his twin brother, Jaroslaw, was swept into power as leader of the nationalist-conservative Law and Justice government. This unique constellation of power, led by identical twins, often put Poland on a collision course with its European Union partners and Russia.

"As soon as he took office in the presidential headquarters in the center of Warsaw, Mr. Kaczynski forged very close relations with Ukraine and Georgia, determined to bring them closer to NATO and eventually have them admitted to the American-led military organization.

"But his staunch defense of these two countries often upset leading members of the E.U., especially Germany, which was concerned that an expanded NATO would threaten Russia, or lead to new East-West tensions...."
(The New York Times)

I see The New York Times' point. Upstart leaders of little countries that aren't part of the 'in crowd' can be annoying, when they don't know their place. So can people who don't - or won't - act the way 'their kind' is expected to. ("Barack Obama: Upstart Young Whippersnapper?" (August 26, 2008))

If Germany and other old-guard European countries seem a bit jittery about Russia, they may think they have a good reason. I suppose that the Soviet Union's habit of shooting first and asking questions later (if at all?) left a lasting impression.

Shooting down Korean Air Flights 902 (1978) and 007 (1983) may not have been a good idea, from a public relations point of view. Sure, the Soviet Union's been gone for about two decades, and there are a few new faces in leadership positions. But it takes a long time to change a reputation.

I've got more to say: but it's even more off-topic. Time to make the final edit on this post: Another news video.

"Polish president dies in crash"

NTVKenya, YouTube (April 10, 2010)
video,
(www.ntv.co.ke)

"It's is a day of mourning in Poland where the countrys president and tens of top government officials have been killed in a plane crash in Western Russia. The Polish President Lech Kaczynski, was leading the delegation to a World War commemoration event when the plane came down in thick fog.
"Gladys Mutiso reports."

The videos are scaled to fit this blog's format: I suggest following the links to the YouTube original posts, if they don't display properly.

More-or-less-related posts:

• "Police Abuse: America isn't Russia"
  (February 19, 2010)
• "Russian Train Derailment: Sabotage on the Moscow-St. Petersburg Line"
  (November 28, 2009)
• "Imperialist American Aggressors Attack Poland?"
  (October 30, 2009)
• "Russian Submarines Near America: There's Probably a Reason"
  (August 4, 2009)
• "Russia Is Peace-Loving, Has No Territorial Ambitions: and Georgia is America's Fault"
  (October 19, 2008)
• "What is Russia Thinking?"
  (February 12, 2008)
• "Putin, Ahmadinejad, Iran, Syria, Israel: Here We Go Again?"
  (October 18, 2007)

More:

• "At Katyn Memorial, Putin Calls For Poland, Russia To 'Move Toward Each Other' "
  GlobalSecurity.org (April 7, 2010)
• "UN should deal with attempts to rewrite WWII results - Medvedev"
  GlobalSecurity.org (September 24, 2009)
• "Russia, Poland Feed Controversy Over World War II"
  GlobalSecurity.org (September 1, 2009)
• "Human Rights Monitor"
  Public Eye, GlobalSecurity.org
  • WWII backgrounder
    • Focus on reluctance to believe reports of German national socialist party activities
    • With mention of Katyn incident

Police Abuse: America isn't Russia

This post is a trifle off-topic for this blog, but not by much.

In my opinion, one of the major threats facing America, and Western countries in general, is a serious misunderstanding by the dominant culture over what threatens their way of life, and what doesn't.

Hard as this may be for America's self-described best and brightest to believe or understand, the FBI, the CIA, and the police are not the greatest threat to their well-being. I acknowledge, however, that not all members of the police force are uniformly trustworthy.

For example, recently the chief of a metropolitan precinct was celebrating with friends and colleagues in a restaurant.

"...After a spat with his wife, he left the restaurant and went to the supermarket, where he wandered the store -- in uniform and carrying a handgun -- shooting random people."

"In all, he attempted the murder of 22 people, according to the court...."
(CNN)

I think the reporter meant that the police chief shot people at random, not people who were "random" in the colloquial sense, but let that pass.

Police Brutality!

The incident reminded me of my college days, and the view of law enforcement held by many of my fellow-students. And, to an extent, faculty.

It seems that this incident validates the view that police are brutal, violent, dangerous people, as a group. Maybe, but there's a twist. Major Denis Yevsyukov is the chief of police in a precinct in southern Moscow. More, from the CNN article:

"...According to investigators, after he was subdued by his fellow policemen Yevsyukov had no regrets about what he did, and said that if he'd had a Kalashnikov machine gun instead of a pistol, he would have used it...."

"...'Victims testified that Yevsyukov not only wanted to kill, he wanted to demonstrate his power and humiliate people,' state prosecutor Amalia Kostoyeva said during the trial...."
(CNN)

It's in Russia? Well, That's Different

I know that some American police officers are not very nice people. There was one individual in my home town who earned a reputation among some of my acquaintances. But - and this is important - that was one individual. My experience with law enforcement - individually and as a group - here in American is that they are professional, competent, and dedicated to serving and protecting the rest of us.

That's America.

Russia is going through a very difficult transition now, about two decades after the worker's paradise went down the drain of history. A colorful collection of people and organizations, with a variety of goals, are making progress. In a variety of directions.

Back to the article.

"...The rampage, captured on the store's surveillance cameras, generated a public outcry in Russia and forced President Dmitry Medvedev to fire the head of Moscow police and to speak about the need for reforming the country's Interior Ministry.

"Along with the flood of press reports ripping police, last November a police officer from southern Russia, Major Alexei Dymovskiy, accused his superiors of corruption in a video posted on YouTube, making him a media star overnight. His posting triggered a series of similar revelations from acting and former police officers across the country.

"The Interior Ministry's official statistics say more than 2,700 criminal cases were opened against policemen in 2009, which independent analysts and human rights activists say is a strong underestimation...."
(CNN)

On the Whole, I'd Rather be in America

I'm proud to be an American.

There, I've said it. I realize that openly admitting a sentiment like that is considered as biased, narrow-minded, even hateful in some of the better circles here in America. But, on the whole, I'm rather glad to have been born in this country.

A great deal of that opinion comes from my contacts with people who weren't, and managed to get here. In one case, curled up in the front of a boat, looking as much like the anchor ropes as possible.

Let's remember that America is one of the countries that people are trying to break into.

Another excerpt. This one is the last, promise.

"...A fresh opinion poll conducted across the country by the Levada Center, an independent polling and sociological organization, suggests that -- in stark contrast with Western democracies -- only 30 percent of Russians trust their police force, while 67 percent fear it.

"And in the city of Moscow, a mere 1 per cent of respondents said they 'rather trusted than distrusted' the police.

" 'Our respondents said their fear of lawlessness from policemen is only slightly less than their fear of attacks from terrorists, hoodlums and criminals,' Polina Cherepova, a Levada Center sociologist, told CNN...."
(CNN)

The good news for Russians is that their problem with the police is in the open now. And this isn't the 'good old days' of the Soviet Union. Some of the same people are in authority, and there's a whole lot of backlog in terms of reforms: but as far as I know Major Alexei Dymovskiy is still alive, and not living in Siberia - so things are changing there.

Police and Perceptions

I could be wrong about this, but it's possible to imagine that the cream of America, those enlightened few who are so much brighter than the rest of us (just ask them), have assumed that police in America are just like their counterparts in Russia. After all, nothing in America could be better than it is in the worker's paradise, right?

As I said, I could be wrong.

On the other hand, America's leaders sometimes seem more concerned with protecting terrorists from law enforcement, than protecting us from the terrorists.

Maybe that'll change, too.

Related posts:

• "Someone Should Tell Congress There's a War on: President Obama, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab"
  (February 3, 2010)
• "Imperialist American Aggressors Attack Poland?"
  (October 30, 2009)
• "Uighur Riot? Revolt? Foreign Separatists? Depends on What You Read"
  (July 10, 2009)
• "A Reporter Escapes the Taliban, Monks Escape China"
  (June 20, 2009)
• "CCSU Students Talk About Guns: Naturally, Their Professor Called the Police"
  (March 4, 2009)
• "DC Gun Ban, Online Censorship, Individual Rights, and Power to the People"
  (June 27, 2008)
• "Global Patriot Reporting: Anti-American Bias? Could Be"
  (March 25, 2008)
• "Odd Allies: Opposition to Waterboarding and Web Censorship"
  (March 9, 2008)
• "EEEK! Guns! Hoplophobia and Foreign Policy"
  (December 23, 2007)
• "Los Angeles Police Department Targets Muslims! Muslim Communities Subject to GESTAPO-STYLE TACTICS!!!!"
  (November 9, 2007)
  • Or, not
• "Congress Must Decide Who to Protect Americans From"
  (August 5, 2007)

In the news:

• "Moscow cop jailed over supermarket rampage"
  CNN (February 19, 2010)

Russian Train Derailment: Sabotage on the Moscow-St. Petersburg Line

Train wrecks can cause no end of a mess, but generally don't leave a crater a yard across - and explosives residue.

It looks like someone caused a Russian express train to derail near Uglovka. That's a town about 400 kilometers, or 250 miles, northeast of Moscow. Hundreds of people were traveling from Moscow to St. Petersburg. Over two dozen were killed - different news articles give slightly different numbers: which isn't all that surprising. The accident scene is, literally, a train wreck.

And, as I said earlier today, it's just about certain that this wasn't an accident. Particularly since a second bomb went off, after the first explosion. I understand that's a fairly typical approach: one explosion to draw a crowd and rescue crews, then a second to kill even more people for Allah, the motherland, or whatever.

Inspired - maybe - by the derailment, someone said that a bomb had been planted at Moscow's Kievsky train station. The building was evacuated and searched, and no bomb found. Folks are being let back in now. (RIA Novosti)

The bomb at the Moscow train station may have been a hoax. Since they didn't find one, I certainly hope it was.

Luxury Train Hit

The Moscow-St. Petersburg express was a luxury train, designed to travel at around 124 miles / 200 kilometers an hour: a sort of analog to Japan's Shinkansen, or "bullet trains."

As a target for terrorism, it was a choice which almost guaranteed nation-wide - and, as it turned out, world-wide - news coverage. There was another derailment, similar to yesterday's, also caused by an explosion, on the same route, in August of 2007. (RIA)

Obviously, This is the Work of - Somebody

There are a few "obvious" sorts of groups to blame for yesterday's wreck.

• Islamic terrorists, because
  • They blow up people
  • Russia wasn't being sufficiently Islamic
• Chechen rebels, striking a blow for freedom
  • Or killing innocent people, as usual
• Organized crime
  • Someone refused an offer they couldn't refuse

Me? I don't have enough information to make a reasonable guess as to who's responsible. That said, one of the less-unlikely parties would, I think, be someone with an interest in the Russia-Chechnya situation.

Chechen Terrorism?

Chechnya is a part of Russia, just north of Georgia - or a territory brutally ground under the heel of oppression. Depends on who you're listening to. Quite a few people think it's part of Russia. But then, a lot of folks say the same about Montana and America: and I'm sure that someone, somewhere, disagrees.

If Chechnya sounds familiar, it should. Separatists, insurgents, whatever, dedicated to freeing Chechnya from oppression, or something like that, managed to kill a school-full of kids and teachers in Beslan back in 2004. I suppose it was easier than attacking soldiers. (CNN)

Apparently that glorious victory didn't sit too well, even among Chechen separatists. (Global Security) The Chechen leader who may have been responsible was Shamil Basayev, who died in an explosion in 2006.

Which isn't to say that someone whose heart is in Chechnya and whose conscience is on vacation might not have decided that, since murdering a school-full of kids didn't win freedom for Chechnya, maybe killing a bunch of people on a train would.

Organized Crime: No, Really

Or, like I said, maybe a businessman in Russia made someone an offer he couldn't refuse: and was refused. Back in the 'good old days,' in - say - Chicago, it wasn't healthy to refuse to do business with some of the more influential members of the community. From what I've heard, Russia has been experiencing growth in the organized crime sector of their economy.

Islamic Terrorists?

And, of course, there are Islamic terrorists. Why they'd hit a train going from Moscow to St. Petersburg, I've no idea. But it's possible. Not very likely, though, I'd think.

A Russian news article ended with what I think is one of the more sensible comments on the question of what the two recent explosions mean:

"...The blast has raised fears of a resurge [!] in terrorist attacks in the Russian capital and other major cities. Russia was hit hard by terrorism in the 1990s and the early years of this decade, but there had not been a major incident outside the volatile North Caucasus region since 2004.
(RIA)

Somewhat-related posts:

• "Russian Train Wreck? Yeah, it Looks Like Terrorism"
  (November 28, 2009)
• "Russian Submarines Near America: There's Probably a Reason"
  (August 4, 2009)
• "Kyrgyzstan to Close Air Base - Bidding War Coming?"
  (February 4, 2009)
• " 'The Americans Hanged Saddam Hussein:" Who Knew?"
  (November 14, 2008)
• "Russia Is Peace-Loving, Has No Territorial Ambitions: and Georgia is America's Fault"
  (October 19, 2008)
• "Russia and Georgia: It Depends on How You Look at It"
  (September 8, 2008)
• " 'Quagmire's' Back: Georgia, Russia, NATO, Bush, and the Blame Game"
  (August 24, 2008)
  • Or, Russian Imperialism is Okay?!:
    'Don't worry: all Russia wants is a little empire to call its own.'
• "Russia, Georgia, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and the War on Terror"
  (August 10, 2008)
• "What is Russia Thinking?"
  (February 12, 2008)

In the news:

• "Hunt for bomb called off at Moscow train station"
  RIA Novosti (November 28, 2009)
• "Second bomb explodes at Russia train crash site"
  Hindustan Times (November 28, 2009)
• "Second Bomb Blast At Russian Train Crash Site"
  Sky News (November 28, 2009)
• "Russia train crash 'caused by bomb' "
  BBC (November 28, 2009)
  • Includes video
• "Russia train accident kills 39"
  Saturday Nation, Kenya (November 28, 2009)
• "Russian train wreck 'an act of terror' "
  CNN (November 28, 2009)
• "Bomb caused fatal train crash - Russia's security chief"
  RIA Novosti (November 28, 2009)
• "Report: Traces of explosives at Russian train site"
  The Associated Press (November 28, 2009)

Background:

• "Second Chechnya War - 1999-???"
  Global Security (July, 2006)
• "World: The Changing Face Of Global Organized Crime"
  Global Security (June 8, 2005)

Russian Train Wreck? Yeah, it Looks Like Terrorism

---

Updated (November 28, 2009)

More, at

• "Russian Train Derailment: Sabotage on the Moscow-St. Petersburg Line"
  (November 28, 2009)

---

The news broke last night, about a terrible train wreck in Russia.

This morning's news said that investigators had found bomb residue and a crater.

And now, a second bomb has gone off.

Yeah, I'd say this looks like a terrorist incident.

In the news:

• "Second bomb explodes at Russia train crash site"
  Hindustan Times (November 28, 2009)

Good News: North Korea Freed American Reporters

Laura Ling and Euna Lee are back in America. They're the reporters from Current TV, based in San Francisco, who (North Korea's version)

• Entered North Korea
• Illegally
• Committed "hostile acts"

They say they hadn't intend to enter North Korea - legally or other wise - when North Korean border guards captured them. The idea that they actually strayed over the border is plausible enough, assuming that the China-North Korea border is as unmarked as the Canada-U.S. border is. As for those "hostile acts," I think the lead paragraph of a BBC article hints at what the reporters were up to:

"US journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee told their families they had no intention of entering North Korea when they went to the border with China to report on the plight of North Korean refugees...."
(BBC)

I could be wrong, but I think Kim Jong Il might regard anyone talking to someone who had escaped from his domain as a "hostile act." Without the threat of secret trials hanging over them, people who made it out of North Korea might say things that wouldn't meet with Dear Leader's approval. As I wrote earlier, "I think it says something about a country or organization, when people can reasonably be said to have 'escaped.' " (June 20, 2009)

American Reporters Out of Prison: Good News

I'm very glad that the two reporters were released from their 12-year sentences in North Korea. That's good news. The two women might have survived 12 years of "reform through labour" - but it would have been the opposite of a pleasant experience.

Smear Campaign or Straight Reporting?

I'm not quite sure what to make of this part of a BBC article:

"'Smear campaign'

"Initially, there were denials from the American side that they had gone into North Korea - and both South Korean media and diplomatic sources said the North's guards had crossed into Chinese territory to arrest them.

"But a few days after their trial, the North's state media said the two had admitted entering the North and accepted their sentences.

"Official news agency KCNA [Korean Central News Agency] also said they had admitted getting footage for a 'smear campaign' about North Korea's human rights...."
(BBC)

There are "smear campaigns," of course. Sometimes journalists or publicists decide that a person or organization is naughty, and then write articles with carefully-selected facts. Or, sometimes just write articles.

On the other hand, it's possible to imagine that the Kim Jong Il regime doesn't like negative publicity. Who does?

In countries like America, having reporters dig up embarrassing facts comes with the territory for public figures and government institutions. I don't think the same can be said for countries like North Korea, where state news agencies are careful to project the desired image of the nation's leaders and institutions.

For people who are accustomed to a well-run, tightly-controlled news media like North Korea's, reporters doing a professional job of collecting and reporting facts might very well look like a "smear campaign."

Then there's the reporters' confessions:

"... Last Monday, Lee and Ling were sentenced in North Korea's top court to 12 years of hard labor for what KCNA called politically motivated crimes. They were accused of crossing into North Korea to capture video for a 'smear campaign' focused on human rights, the report said.

" 'The accused admitted that what they did were criminal acts committed, prompted by the political motive to isolate and stifle the socialist system of (North Korea) by faking up moving images aimed at falsifying its human rights performance and hurling slanders and calumnies at it,' it said...."
(Breitbart)

I think it's possible that one or both of the reporters did confess and apologize. That doesn't mean that I take the confession(s) seriously.

People can be persuaded to do a remarkable range of things. A writer, chronicling his experiences during WWII, observed that the police of a particular American city had, at the time, a reputation for being able to get suspects to confess to anything from the Lindbergh snatch to the murder of Cock Robin.

According to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's official news, another American apologized, too:

"...The Korean Central News Agency said Mr. Clinton "expressed sincere words of apology to Kim Jong Il for the hostile acts committed by the two American journalists."..."
(WSJ)

In this case, I'm quite sure that Mr. Clinton wasn't, ah, persuaded to apologize. There doesn't seem to have been enough time to work him over, for one thing.

The 'apology' may be wishful thinking on the part of the Korean Central News Agency, or a bit of creative memory based on official policy. Or, Mr. Clinton may have apologized for the "hostile acts." Whatever they were.

Diplomacy, prudent and otherwise, can make people do odd things.

What does this Mean?

The only thing I'm reasonably certain of is that the two journalists are back in America.

The assorted confessions and apologies may be fictional or real. The confessions may or may not have been made after the application of behavior modification techniques. I simply do not know.

There are plenty of opinions going the rounds, about what this release means. An op-ed piece in Reuters India impressed me by reporting opinions of a variety of experts: and identifying them. American journalism, at least, often refers to anonymous 'experts' - which can be impressive, if you have complete and unqualified trust in the news service.

Experts' opinions, from Reuters India:

• Tadashi Kimiya, Associate Professor, University of Tokyo
  • " 'It's hard to believe that North Korea released the journalists just on humanitarian grounds. It probably had something to do with a package deal with the United States, to resolve the issues of denuclearisation and normalisation of ties....' "
• Masafumi Yamomoto, Head of FX Strategy Japan, RBS, Tokyo
  • " 'The latest incident has not been much of a factor in the market as the situation regarding worries about a future change in (North Korea's) leadership and brinkmanship diplomacy remains unchanged....' "
• Zhang Liangui, Chinese Expert on North Korea at Central Party School in Beijing
  • " 'The North Koreans have rejected the six-party talks and they won't give up their nuclear plans; both were important components of U.S. policy, so to cave to them would show the U.S. had failed.
  • " 'Bilateral talks can't solve the problem, because they leave out other countries...."
• Narushige Michishita, Assistant Professor, Security and International Studies Programme at National Graduate Institute for Policy in Japan
  • " 'I think there will be a three-pillar approach, as we saw at the end of the Bill Clinton administration. The three pillars are tackling nuclear arms, missile issues and then moving toward a peace treaty (between the United States and North Korea). It is unclear what exactly the United States actually offered at the meeting, but I think Clinton at least tried to find out where North Korea stands on those issues now....' "
• Bruce Klingner, Korea Expert at the Heritage Foundation in Washington
  • " 'Clinton's visit has roiled the North Korean policy waters beyond their already tumultuous state. There are great uncertainties over North Korean and U.S. intentions, escalating the risk of miscalculation, confrontation, and crisis....' "

Those bilateral and six-party talks haven't been in American news much lately. I briefly discussed them earlier this year. (May 25, 2009)

At the risk of seeming simplistic, I think that there's good reason to think Kim Jong Il realizes that a policy of threatening other countries and insulting American officials (CNN) results in unenforced United Nations resolutions, and concessions from other nations. Particularly America.

I also think that there's a real risk that Kim Jong Il, or his successor, will eventually miscalculate: either by actually launching an attack on another nation, or by making a credible threat against China or Russia.

I could be wrong, but I think that China, whose capital is within 600 kilometers of North Korea, and Russia, whose only viable Pacific seaport is even closer, might take immediate and decisive steps in response to a threat - real or imagined. Granted, the dialog conducted with tanks and bullets in Tiananmen Square was in 1989 (a commemoration of a 1988 event); and Korean Air Flights 902 and 007 were in 1978 and 1983: but there hasn't been that much of a change in leadership since.


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Related posts:

• "China Shot 12: Don't Worry, They're 'Mobsters' "
  (July 19, 2009)
• "North Korea's Kang Nam Turns Around, and I've No Clue Why"
  (June 30, 2009)
• "North Korea's Still There, Still a 'Serious Concern' "
  (June 24, 2009)
• "A Reporter Escapes the Taliban, Monks Escape China"
  (June 20, 2009)
• "USS John McCain Positioning for Intercept of North Korean Ship: More Radioactive Kimchi for Syria?"
  (June 19, 2009)
• "North Korea, American Journalists, the Internet, and Power to the People"
  (June 16, 2009)
  • (This isn't as groovily relevant as the title might suggest.)
• "North Korea and the Kim Jong Dynasty: Not All Countries are the Same"
  (June 9, 2009)
• "North Korea Sentences Journalists: No Surprises Here"
  (June 7, 2009)
• "Tiananmen Square Commemoration in Hong Kong: No Tanks"
  (June 5, 2009)
• "North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, Brinksmanship, and Miscalculation"
  (May 27, 2009)
• "North Korea's City-Busting Nuke, a New Missile, and Diplomacy"
  (May 25, 2009)
• "North Korea Nuke Test: The Genie's Out of the Bottle"
  (May 24, 2009)
• "North Korea's Launch: Watch Out for Incoming Communications Satellites?"
  (April 7, 2009)
• "North Korea and Missile Concerns: Nations are Not All Identical"
  (April 5, 2009)
• "North Korea Launches Missile; U.N. Security Council to Meet: Here We Go Again"
  (April 5, 2009)
• "North Korea - Again - Still - North Korea"
  (March 26, 2009)
• "North Korea Un-disables Reactor"
  (September 27, 2008)
• "North Korea Disables Reactor: Progress, of a Sort"
  (June 27, 2008)
• "Six Years Ago, Tomorrow: Remembering 9/11"
  (September 10, 2007)

News and views:

• "Freed journalists arrive in U.S. from North Korea"
  CNN (August 5, 2009)
• "Journalists freed from N. Korea return to U.S."
  Reuters (August 5, 2009)
• "Clinton And Freed Reporters Arrive Home"
  Sky News (August 5, 2009)
• "ANALYSTS' VIEW - North Korea frees U.S. journalists; what next?"
  Reuters India (August 5, 2009)
• "North Korea Frees Americans"
  The Wall Street Journal (August 5, 2009)
• "Profile: US reporters freed in N Korea"
  BBC (August 5, 2009)
• "Analysis: Clinton to North Korea -- a matter of respect"
  CNN (August 4, 2009)
• "N. Korea: Clinton 'funny lady, by no means intelligent' "
  CNN (July 23, 2009)
• "U.S. concerned over N. Korea-Myanmar tie"
  CNN (July 22, 2009)
• ""
  Breitbart (June 16, 2009)

Russian Submarines Near America: There's Probably a Reason

Two Russian submarines have been in the waters off America's east coast for several days.

They're in international waters, and as FOXNews put it:

"...While the incident raises eyebrows, it did not trigger the more intense reaction by the U.S. military that Russia prompted when two of its bombers buzzed an American aircraft carrier in the western Pacific in February 2008. U.S. fighter planes intercepted the two Russian fighters, including one that flew directly over the USS Nimitz twice at an altitude of about 2,000 feet...."
(FOXNews)

I think "raised eyebrows" is a pretty good response. Although the submarines are nowhere near doing a real-life recreation of the sort of silliness featured in "The Russians Are Coming the Russians Are Coming," I also think it's reasonable to wonder what they're doing there.

This week's situation is nowhere near as provocative - and goofy - as the buzzing of the Nimitz, back in February of 2008. As I wrote then, "...Russia seems to be reverting to the Soviet Union-era habit of flexing military muscle...."

There may be a reasonable purpose in having submarines patrolling international waters off the east coast. Or, not.

Russian Submarines: A Diplomatic Gesture?

I think it's very possible that the presence of those submarines as a sort of diplomatic gesture.

"...The latest incident, which was first reported by The New York Times, comes amid increased Russian military activity in the region, and as the administration of President Obama works to thaw tense relations with Moscow over plans for a missile defense system in Central Europe.

"Just last week a senior Pentagon official said the administration is looking at options for the plan, which would install 10 interceptors in Poland and a radar system in the Czech Republic. Assistant Secretary of Defense Alexander Vershbow told Congress members that the Obama administration is looking at various configurations as part of its review of missile defense plans...."
(FOXNews)

That "missile defense system in Central Europe" is something that Russia's Putin likened to ballistic missiles that the Soviet Union set up in Cuba, a few decades back. (October 26, 2007)

What Possible Reason Could There be For Missile Defense Systems in Europe?

The defense system could suggest that it was intended, at least in part, to defend Europe from incoming missiles from Iran. Why Mr. Putin didn't want the system to be set up isn't entirely clear to me. I suppose it could have something with Russian politics: playing on a fear of big, bad America and those Yankee imperialists we've heard so much about.

Yes: Iran Could Bomb European Targets

As for Iranian missiles hitting targets in Europe: The Shahab-5 and 6 missiles, with ranges of 5,500 km and 10,000 km respectively, could hit targets in Europe. Happily, these missiles are not in production. Yet.

Iran does, however, have a dozen X-55 Long Range Cruise Missiles. It looks like someone in Ukraine sold the cruise missiles to Iran - illegally - around 2005.

Good news: The cruise missiles weren't shipped with the nuclear warheads they're designed to deliver.

Bad news: With a range of 3,000 km, they could reach parts of eastern Europe.

More bad news: Iranian leaders' protestations notwithstanding, there's a very good chance that Iran is on its way to building its own nuclear bombs.

Related posts:

• "Iran Has Heavy Metal for Bomb, No Bomb: Yet"
  (March 1, 2009)
• "Iran Launched Satellite, Probably: and North Korea's Preparing for Launch"
  (February 3, 2009)
• " 'Quagmire's' Back: Georgia, Russia, NATO, Bush, and the Blame Game"
  (August 24, 2008)
• "Iranian Nukes, Israeli Attack, Diplomacy, and Common Sense"
  (June 21, 2008)
• "Russia, Georgia, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and the War on Terror"
  (August 10, 2008)
• "What is Russia Thinking?"
  (February 12, 2008)
• "Russian Official Declares First-Strike Nuke Policy: Why?"
  (January 19, 2008)
• "Ballistic Missiles in Cuba = Anti-Missile System in Europe?"
  (October 26, 2007)

In the news:

• "Russian subs patrolling off U.S. east coast: report"
  Reuters (August 4, 2009)
• "AP sources: Russian subs patrolling off East Coast"
  The Associated Press (August 4, 2009)
• "Defense Officials: Russian Subs Patrolling off East Coast of United States"
  FOXNews (August 4, 2009)

Background:

• "Iran Missiles"
  Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), GlobalSecurity.org
• "X-55 Long Range Cruise Missile"
  Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), GlobalSecurity.org ()

North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, Brinksmanship, and Miscalculation

North Korea's celebration of a second nuclear bomb test has already produced results. Not, though, what North Korea probably wanted.

South Korea has held back from joining the Proliferation Security Initiative, or PSI. The PSI is an America-led collection of nations that wants to keep ships from transporting materials used in making nuclear bombs.

Then, North Korea set off a whacking great explosion and announced a successful test of a nuclear bomb.

South Korea is now joining the Proliferation Security Initiative.

This is a declaration of war, North Korea says.

That's not as worrisome as it sounds: "...Since its April rocket launch, Pyongyang has considered almost any opposition a "declaration of war," including U.N. Security Council sanctions and participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative...." (CNN)

Free Trade, Open Borders, and North Korea

As a rule, I think that free trade is a good idea. I think that a market economy, where people are allowed to pay what they think is reasonable for goods and services, works rather well. Generally.

I'm well aware of problems created by monopolies and daft directors. That's why we've got regulations on trade today: and why, in my opinion, there will be a sort of dynamic stability in economies, as people who want no regulation and people who want total regulation gain and lose ground.

North Korea Exporting Nuke Technology: Occam's Razor Says 'Yes'

I don't know whether the PSI agreement is good sense or not: I don't know enough about it.

I do think I see why North Korea is so upset about limits on its export of nuclear weapons materials. North Korea is a small, self-isolated, impoverished country. Cash for bomb-making materials and know-how would be a boon to the North Korean government.

It looks like North Korea has been in the nuke export business for some time already.

Back in 2007, Syria complained about Israel blowing up a reactor¹ it had been building. The Syrian reactor was almost exactly the same size and shape as a North Korean reactor. (October 29, 2007) There's evidence, including a photo of a North Korean nuclear scientist talking to his Syrian counterpart, that North Korea was deeply involved in building Syria's reactor. (April 26, 2008)

Syria's Reactor, Radioactive Kimchi, White House Conspiracies, and Occam's Razor

A couple years ago, I came up with a wild explanation (involving radioactive kimchi) for North Korea's presence at the reactor, and outrage at its destruction. The Syrian ambassador, playing (I think) to 'sophisticated' Americans, said the affair was a Bush plot: just like Iraq.

Applying Occam's razor², it's much more likely that a reactor built along North Korean lines, with a North Korean nuclear physicist on site, was being built with North Korean help.

I don't have a problem with countries like India, France, or America, using and selling nuclear technology. Those countries have a track record for having moderately rational foreign policies: and whose leaders appear, in general, to have a relatively firm grasp on reality.

As I wrote earlier, in a somewhat different context, "I don't mind people owning dangerous technology, as long as they're not crazy. It's part of living in a free society." (March 4, 2009) I think the same principle can be applied to nations.

North Korea Threatens South Korea, America: What is Dear Leader Thinking?

An op-ed in The New York Times opines that North Korea's announcement of a successful nuclear weapons test and missile launches "...all point to a newly emboldened military influencing decision-making...." (NYT) That's likely enough. I was interested in the paragraph that came before that:

"...While brinksmanship is nothing new for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and previous outbursts have often brought increased attention — and rewards — this time international reaction is likely to be swift and unforgiving. North Korea has miscalculated the global ire its provocation has raised...." (NYT)

When even China - one of the very few friends Dear Leader's regime has - denounces North Korea's actions, you know that the country is running seriously short of goodwill. And, possibly, bargaining chips.

I think it's quite possible that North Korea's nuclear sabre-rattling is, in part, an effort by some of North Korea's military to strengthen their position in the country's leadership. Or, maybe Kim Jong Il is trying to make one of his sons look good: with an eye on the third generation of his dynasty.

You Don't Suppose North Korea's Leaders Believe Their Own Propaganda?

North Korea covered familiar ground, reacting to South Korea's acceptance of the Proliferation Security Initiative.

"...'Now that the South Korean puppets were so ridiculous as to join in the said racket and dare declare a war against compatriots,' North Korea is 'compelled to take a decisive measure,' the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea said in a statement carried by state media...." (AP)

North Korea's leadership says it isn't concerned about American sanctions.

"...'It is a laughable delusion for the United States to think that it can get us to kneel with sanctions,' it said in an editorial. 'We've been living under U.S. sanctions for decades, but have firmly safeguarded our ideology and system while moving our achievements forward. The U.S. sanctions policy toward North Korea is like striking a rock with a rotten egg.'..." (AP)

Taking what North Korea says at face value, they believe that the United Nations Security Council is part of the American government.

I prefer to think that North Korea's leaders, Kim Jong Il, generals, and all, have a somewhat firmer grasp on reality.

A Full Nuclear Exchange Could be Unpleasant

At this point, North Korea very likely has, or will soon have, nuclear weapons with yields approaching that of the bombs that devastated Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Something like that going off over Beijing, Vladivostok, Anchorage, or Honolulu would be unpleasant: to say the least.

I think there's a very remote chance that bombing an American city would be met with nothing more serious than stern rebukes, and calls for action in the next meeting of the United Nations Security Council.

Or, America could respond like the warmonger imperialists North Korea believes we are. In which case, I wonder what North Korea's leaders think would be the result of a full nuclear exchange between the United States of America and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Remember: Their missiles will reach Alaska and Hawaii, but not the contiguous 48 states. (GlobalSecurity.org)

I think an American response would be somewhere between those extremes.

What other countries would do, I don't know.

Russia made it clear, since 2000, that it would use nuclear weapons if it believed its sovereignty or territorial integrity were threatened. (January 19, 2008) One of the few ports the Russian Federation has is Vladivostok: well inside North Korean missiles' range.

In the days of the Soviet Union, Russia was quite willing to react to real or imagined threats: like Korean Air's Flight 902 in 1978 and Flight 007 in 1983. I wouldn't bet that things have changed all that much.

North Korea's Nuclear Fist-Waving: My Take

I think there's a very good chance that Kim Jong Il, or whoever is calling the shots in North Korea, took a calculated risk with the latest nuclear test announcement and missile launches.

America is a very influential country: arguably the only superpower remaining. (At this moment - China and India, at least, are rising fast.) And, America has gone through a regime change.

At least, I think that is how America's elections may be perceived by people in places like North Korea and Burma/Myanmar/whatever.

North Korea's leaders may have assumed that they were dealing with a leader who was not only relatively inexperienced, but eager to secure his position against remaining internal threats.

I'll grant, this is speculation.

President Barack Obama has been establishing a reputation for 'reaching out' to unfriendly people, like supporters of the Taliban. And, his administration has abolished the official use of "war on terror." (March 30, 2009)

I can see how leaders of an alternatively-peaceful, impoverished, and somewhat desperate country might see President Obama as a pushover. Just a hard shove, they might think, and he'll start spewing foreign aid and concessions like a slot machine with triple sevens.

That didn't happen.

"...'North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs pose a grave threat to the peace and security of the world and I strongly condemn their reckless action,' the president said in a statement in the White House Rose Garden. 'North Korea will not find security and respect through threats and illegal weapons.'

" 'We will work with our friends and allies to stand up to this behavior,' the president said and pledged to 'never waver' from the commitment to protect the American people...." (ABC)

This isn't what a red-white-and-blue-blooded 'all American' flag-waver might hope for: but it's very far from capitulation to a threat.

I've written this before: Things are different, when you're in charge. I think President Obama is learning that. And, responding fairly well to reality.

Related posts:

• "North Korea's City-Busting Nuke, a New Missile, and Diplomacy"
  (May 25, 2009)
• "North Korea Nuke Test: The Genie's Out of the Bottle "
  (May 24, 2009)
• "North Korea's Launch: Watch Out for Incoming Communications Satellites?"
  (April 7, 2009)
• "North Korea and Missile Concerns: Nations are Not All Identical"
  (April 5, 2009)
• "President Obama: Ban the Bomb"
  (April 5, 2009)
• "North Korea Launches Missile; U.N. Security Council to Meet: Here We Go Again"
  (April 5, 2009)
• "Sounds of Silence: 2009"
  (March 31, 2009)
• "North Korea - Again - Still - North Korea"
  (March 26, 2009)
• "North Korea Set to Launch - Communications Satellite?"
  (February 27, 2009)
• "Syria Accuses America, North Korea Threatens South Korea: Nothing New Here"
  (October 28, 2008)
• "Kim Jong Il Watches Football Game: And That's News"
  (October 4, 2008)
• "North Korea Un-disables Reactor"
  (September 27, 2008)
• "North Korea Disables Reactor: Progress, of a Sort"
  (June 27, 2008)
• "Syria, the IAEA, Israel, Claims and Denials"
  (June 22, 2008)
• "Syria's Reactor and North Korea - Again
  (May 5, 2008)
• "Unilateral Attack Sparks International Condemnation! Syria Had No Reactor! Pay No Attention to the North Koreans!"
  (April 26, 2008)
• "Syrian Ambassador: Reactor? That's No Reactor"
  (April 24, 2008)
• "Return of the Radioactive Kimchi!! North Korean Nuclear Reactor in Syria Back in the News"
  ( April 23, 2008)
• "Unintended Consequences? The West May be Getting Over Hiroshima"
  (January 25, 2008)
• "Russian Official Declares First-Strike Nuke Policy: Why?"
  (January 19, 2008)
• " 'The Jews Blew Up Our Reactor (Which Does Not Exist)' "
  (October 17, 2007)
• "In the News: Anxious Republicans, Castro and Chavez are Friends, and, oh, yes: Israel Destroyed Syrian Nuclear Reactor"
  (October 14, 2007)
• "No Radioactive Kimchi: Israel Blew Up a Syrian Reactor"
  (October 13, 2007)
• "Radioactive Kimchi, or Nuclear Bomb Material?"
  (September 23, 2007)
• "Nuclear Materials from North Korea, Sand, or Radioactive Kimchi?"
  ( September 18, 2007)
• "Nuclear Stockpile Bombed?"
  (September 16, 2007)

News and views:

• "NKorea threatens to attack US, SKorean warships"
  The Associated Press (May 27, 2009)
• "North Korea Misfires"
  The New York Times op-ed (May 27, 2009)
• " N. Korea: No longer bound by 1953 truce"
  CNN (May 27, 2009)
• "China urges peace on Korean Peninsula"
  United Press International (May 26, 2009)
• "Obama Condemns North Korea's Actions, Saying Country Poses a 'Grave Threat' "
  ABC News (May 25, 2009)

Background:

• "Admiral: North Korea Rocket Could Reach Hawaii"
  FOXNews (March 28, 2009)
• "NORTH KOREA / MISSILE (L-ONLY)"
  GlobalSecurity.org (September 2, 1999)

---

¹ It looked like a reactor, and Syria eventually called the installation a reactor. Before that, the reactor had been, according to Syrian authorities, an unused military building, an agricultural research station, and nothing but sand. (October 17, 2007)

²Occam's razor is a Franciscan friar's idea, that when you've got two ways of explaining something, and one is simpler, the simpler one is true. William of Occam said it more eloquently, of course.