Benazir Bhutto's Assassination and Nawaz Sharif's Near-Miss: It Could be Worse

It's been a busy day in Pakistan.

While campaigning for the Pakistan People's Party, Benazir Bhutto was shot at a rally in Rawalpindi, the city where Pakistan's military has its headquarters. Someone: possibly the assassin, or another attacker, then blew up, killing roughly 20 more people.

Meanwhile, near the Islamabad airport, four supporters of Nawaz Sharif were killed at a rally near the Islamabad airport. Mr. Sharif was about a mile away at the time.

Finger-pointing and Monday-morning quarterbacking is well under way.

• At the hospital where she died, some Bhutto supporters shouted "dog, Musharraf, dog!" according to a cable news report.
• Musharraf blames Islamic extremists.
• TimesOnline suggests that Pakistani warlords or security forces may be responsible.
• Some in the blogosphere blame America's President Bush.

I don't think that Musharraf would be stupid enough to assassinate a leader with the sort of popular support Bhutto had. Assuming that she won the election, or at least won a plurality, I'd think that he could have made a deal to keep some power. But I could be over-estimating his political smarts.

The situation in Pakistan is bad. A nation with nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them

• An assassination and a near-miss on the same day
• Pakistan's current leader seems to have very little popular support
• The borderlands are controlled by warlords who haven't caught up with changes that started with the Magna Carta

But it could be worse.

As easy as it is to be cynical about President Musharraf's apparent plan to delay the January 8 election, it's probably a good idea. With lethal gunfire at one candidate's rally, the leading candidate assassinated, and the President suspected of ordering the assassination, Pakistanis could use a little breathing room to calm down: and find someone to replace Bhutto.

And, I think that Bhutto's assassination shows how little support maniacal Muslims have in the Islamic world. A recent poll in Pakistan showed that about 4% of Pakistani people planned to support religious parties next month.

Islamic terrorists don't seem to be any more of a majority than the 0.0001% or so of Muslims at this year's Hajj who chanted "Death to America! Death to Israel!" at this year's Hajj.

With that sort of grassroots non-support, it should be no surprise that the bonkers elements of Islam depend of hijacked airliners, bombs, and the occasional sword to make their point. They're loud, and lethal, but violence seems to be the only argument they have.

See "Assassination Whodunit: Bhutto Faced Threats From All Militant Groups in Pakistan" (December 27, 2007)

Related posts, on Individuals and the War on Terror.

Posts about Benazir Bhutto.

Pakistan: Better Than I Feared

Things are going better in Pakistan than I feared. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf in now President Musharraf, period. Not General and President Musharraf.

He promised to quit his military role, and be a civilian leader, and delivered: not on the timetable he originally gave, but he did quit.

Maybe he'll end emergency rule by December 16, as he says he will, and restore the Pakistani constitution in time for the January elections, too.

Musharraf has two former prime ministers back in Pakistan now. He's let them know that things are going to be okay with the election, and that he expects them to participate. "Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif have come back, and a level playing field has been given to (their parties). Now it is the responsibility of these and other parties to prepare for the elections, and participate fully," is how he put it.

The two former PMs have threatened to boycott the election. I suppose there's a point to trying not to win an election you want to win - like when the election is obviously rigged.

Musharraf's recent rounding up of political opponents, and now holding an election with very little lead time, seems perilously close to "rigging."