Gmail, China, Knee-Jerk Response, and the Information Age

I ran into a news item last night. The focus was on U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, his Chinese counterpart General Liang Guanglie, and what Gates said about China-United States relations. The two men were at an Asia-Pacific annual security conference ("talkfest" is how the article put it): called the Shangri-La Dialogue, of all things.

The latest hack attack coming from servers in China came up, briefly.

Hackers and Imperialist Capitalist Aggressor Warmonger Running Dogs

Times change. I haven't heard diplomatic boilerplate like "capitalist aggressor" for quite a while. Being away from college probably helps, but I think many folks have realized that it's not the 19th century any more, and class struggle just isn't what it used to be. And that's another topic.

Some things haven't changed so much, though.

First, about the latest hack attack:

"There is a lot of talk--and diplomatic tension--this week related to reports that attacks originating from China have breached Google Gmail accounts, including those of senior US government officials. The focus is on e-mail, and whether or not e-mail accounts were hacked, but a breached Gmail account is a much bigger prize than just the e-mail account it is attached to.

"Google claims that the spear phishing attacks that targeted Gmail accounts of White House staff, and successfully exposed accounts of senior US government officials, high-ranking military personnel, and political activists, originated from China. China denies any state-sponsored involvement in the attacks, and the FBI is investigating...."
(PCWorld Business Center)¹

I think it's possible that Google and China's leaders are right. I think it's very likely that Google traced the hack attack to servers in China: although I'll admit that Google could, in principle, be faking the attack's source. I don't think that's likely, but is is possible.

As for China's response to news that their servers hosted a hack attack? Again?

According to China's military, it is the work of Yankee imperialists. That's not quite the way they put it, but that's the basic idea:

"...A new irritant was introduced this week, with allegations that computer hackers in China had compromised the personal Gmail accounts of several hundred people, including U.S. government officials, military personnel and political activists.

"The Chinese military tried to direct the spotlight off those allegations Friday, with accusations that the U.S. is launching a global 'Internet war' to bring down Arab and other governments.

"The FBI said it was investigating Google's allegations, but no official government email accounts have been compromised. Google said all the hacking victims have been notified and their accounts have been secured.....
(Associated Press, via Foxnews.com²) [emphasis mine]

Again, China's line seems to be that "the U.S. is launching a global 'Internet war' to bring down Arab and other governments."

That's probably good enough for folks who believe that the CIA blew up New York City's World Trade Center. After all these decades, though, it sounds like the same tired old 'American aggressor warmonger' stuff that cluttered the news in my youth.

A Country's Servers aren't a Country's Government

Since China is one of the world's more tightly-managed countries, in my opinion, I find it a little hard to believe that hackers have just happened to use Chinese servers for hack attacks - for years - and that the country's leadership doesn't know it's happening and can't stop it anyway.

Still, it's possible.

Particularly since I can easily imagine that it's in China's interests to get access to networks in other countries, for either espionage or sabotage, and blame Yankee imperialism.

China's response may simply be knee-jerk xenophobia: the sort of thing that had right-wing loonies blaming whatever they didn't like on the commies, back in 'the good old days.' I remember the real "Happy Days," by the way - and don't, ever, want to go back.

Or, the folks running China may not be the ones who planned and executed all those hack attacks. China's leaders may be aware that the attacks come from servers in their country - and not be able to stop whoever's behind the hacking. If that's the case, they may simply be embarrassed: and desperately want the problem to belong to someone else.

I think it's a good idea to remember that a national government doesn't necessarily control everything that happens within its borders: no matter how much the leaders want to.

Real Threat, Proportional Response

It's entirely possible that no one person or organization is behind attacks on the World Bank, Gmail, Sony, and all the rest. I think it's quite possible that there is no one motive behind the hacking.

My understanding is that there's a hot - if unethical and illegal - market for the sort of data that has quite possibly been stolen. That would make the hacks a new version of burglary. And, most likely, a private-sector effort.

Governments have their own motives.

What's happened in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Syria, Libya, and elsewhere shows what can happen when old-school leaders lose control of their subjects. My guess is that Iran's rulers are developing a 'just us' intranet to keep the 'Arab spring' from spreading east. The Ayatollahs have nice-sounding motives: they want to 'protect' Iranians from foreign influences.

In my opinion, Iran's leadership isn't the only outfit that's scared of the Information Age. And for good reason. I've gone over that before:

• "Lemming Tracks: Iran, Internet, Freedom, and Getting a Grip"
  Apathetic Lemming of the North (May 30, 2011)
  Particularly
  • 'Be Careful What You Wish For'
• " 'Search Neutrality:' Deciding What We're Allowed to Find?"
  Apathetic Lemming of the North (January 22, 2011)
• "Steve Jobs, Censorship, and Who Gets to Choose"
  A Catholic Citizen in America (January 7, 2011)
• "A Catholic Blogger In the Digital Continent"
  A Catholic Citizen in America (November 15, 2010)
  Particularly
  • Embracing New Technology, Fearing the Internet

I think it's likely that some folks have idealistic reasons for hacking into corporate and government networks. Sometimes I even sympathize - a little - with the ideas they support. Like freedom of information. Which is emphatically not the same as thinking that what they're actually doing is right.

In a way, it's a sort of 'with friends like these, who needs enemies?' situation. A case in point:

"A hacker group has claimed responsibility for defacing the PBS.org website, the Fox.com site, and the Sony network, posting images of defaced websites and stolen databases and emails to its website....

"...Pike linked the hacker group Lulz to Anonymous, the 'hacktivist' collective that -- in the name of the freedom of information -- has hacked numerous websites, wrestled with security firms and made public a decrypted version of the cyberworm that crippled Iran's nuclear power program...."
(Jeremy A. Kaplan, FoxNews.com (June 2, 2011))

According to the article, Pike's considering turning himself in, before law enforcement shows up with a warrant. That's a good idea, in my opinion. Blaming Yankee imperialism may still work as an excuse in diplomacy: but American law enforcement is, in my experience, more interested in facts than finger-pointing.

As I said before, I think it's possible that a server in China could have been used for hack attacks, without the Chinese government being involved.

Determining how likely that is - and whether that's what's actually been happening - is a job I'm profoundly grateful belongs to someone else.

If it turns out that the Beijing bosses are responsible for the hack attacks, I suspect and hope that America's leaders will try to sort the mess out diplomatically. Not because I think the folks who are still occupying Tibet are a bunch of really nice guys who are just misunderstood. It's a matter of proportional response, and how many folks who weren't responsible could get hurt or killed in a military operation.

If the North American power grid goes down this winter? That's something else. (June 1, 2011)

China, Assumptions, and Living in the Information Age

I've been criticized for not having the proper attitude toward China: and not being politely silent.³ It's a familiar reaction. Commie-hunters acted that way in the McCarthy era (January 9, 2010); professors did the same, a few decades later; and I'm don't think trying to impose ideological purity is a good idea - no matter whose ideas are being shoved down my throat.

I also think it's a bad idea to assume that 'foreigners,' 'commies,' 'the military-industrial complex,' 'Big cheese,' or any other standard-issue bad guys are 'really behind' any particular issue. (January 14, 2009)

Finally, I think that these are trying times for old-school autocrats: and anybody who had a privileged position before information technology made it possible for folks to share ideas - without permission from their 'betters.'

I like the comparatively open marketplace of ideas we have today: but then, I don't mind people having access to dangerous technology. Like LP gas, guns, or computers. (June 27, 2008)

Related posts:

• Hack Attacks
  • "L-3 Communications, Grumman: Hack Attack"
    (June 1, 2011)
  • "Pentagon's New(ish) Policy About Hack Attacks"
    (May 31, 2011)
  • "Lockheed Martin, Oak Ridge, Spear Phishing, and Common Sense"
    (May 29, 2011)
  • "China, Paper on How to Bring Down USA Power Grid: All a Big Misunderstanding?"
    (March 20, 2010)
  • "World Bank Group Network Hacked; Chinese IPs Used: Just What We Need"
    (October 10, 2008)
• Passwords, security, and common sense
  • "Cloud Computing, Dropbox, and the Postcard Principle"
    Apathetic Lemming of the North (May 13, 2011)
  • "Lemming Tracks: Bad News From Sony; and Getting a Grip"
    Apathetic Lemming of the North (May 3, 2011)
  • "Lemming Tracks: Epsilon Breach, Spam, and Getting a Grip"
    Apathetic Lemming of the North (April 6, 2011)
  • "Strong Passwords: It Can be Done"
    Apathetic Lemming of the North (January 1, 2011)
  • "International Cyber Crime Ring Busted: 'By Jove, I Think They've GOT It!' "
    Apathetic Lemming of the North (October 3, 2010)
• China, Yankee imperialism, and getting a grip:
  • "Imperialist American Aggressors Attack Poland?"
    (October 30, 2009)
  • "China Shot 12: Don't Worry, They're 'Mobsters' "
    (July 19, 2009)
  • "A Reporter Escapes the Taliban, Monks Escape China"
    (June 20, 2009)
  • "Tiananmen Square 20th Anniversary: A Losing Battle for Traditional Information Gatekeepers"
    (June 3, 2009)
  • "U.S. Warship Kills Innocent Egyptian!! No Wonder Everybody Hates America!!!"
    (March 24, 2008)

News and views:

• "Gates Says Relations With China Improving, as Chinese Military Accuses U.S. of 'Internet War' "
  Associated Press via FoxNews.com (June 3, 2011)
• "More than E-mail at Stake in Google Gmail Attack"
  Tony Bradley, PCWorld Business Center (June 3, 2011)
• "Group Claims It Was 'Paid to Hack PBS,' Then Leaks a Million Sony User IDs"
  Jeremy A. Kaplan, FoxNews.com (June 2, 2011)

---

¹ Excerpt from news and views:

"Putting a positive spin on a sometimes stormy relationship, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Friday that military ties with China are 'on a more positive trajectory' but need further strengthening....

"...The main elements of friction remain, however. China still claims control of waters the U.S. considers international. Chinese ambition for influence in Southeast Asia and elsewhere still makes smaller nations uneasy, while Beijing dislikes the heavy U.S. naval presence in Asian waters and builds up its military with weaponry only logically intended for use against the U.S.

"A new irritant was introduced this week, with allegations that computer hackers in China had compromised the personal Gmail accounts of several hundred people, including U.S. government officials, military personnel and political activists.

"The Chinese military tried to direct the spotlight off those allegations Friday, with accusations that the U.S. is launching a global 'Internet war' to bring down Arab and other governments.

"The FBI said it was investigating Google's allegations, but no official government email accounts have been compromised. Google said all the hacking victims have been notified and their accounts have been secured.....

"...Gates and Liang met on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security talkfest attended by defense officials from across the Asia-Pacific region. On Saturday Gates was delivering an address to the conference before continuing an around-the-world journey that is his final trip before retiring June 30...."
(Associated Press via FoxNews.com)

¹Excerpts from news and views:

"There is a lot of talk--and diplomatic tension--this week related to reports that attacks originating from China have breached Google Gmail accounts, including those of senior US government officials. The focus is on e-mail, and whether or not e-mail accounts were hacked, but a breached Gmail account is a much bigger prize than just the e-mail account it is attached to.

"Google claims that the spear phishing attacks that targeted Gmail accounts of White House staff, and successfully exposed accounts of senior US government officials, high-ranking military personnel, and political activists, originated from China. China denies any state-sponsored involvement in the attacks, and the FBI is investigating.

"The Gmail e-mail accounts are getting all of the attention. Catalin Cosoi, head of the BitDefender Online Threats Lab, notes in a blog post, 'Just as in the previous attack against the Gmail service, we can assume that cyber-criminals went after sensitive documents the users might have inadvertently forwarded from their business inboxes.'

"But, it would be more accurate to say that Google accounts are being targeted or compromised--not just Gmail. Depending on the extent the hacked account relies on Google, there is potentially much more at stake than just the documents that might be forwarded as a file attachments from Gmail. There is no differentiation between hacking a Gmail account, and hacking the rest of the diverse array of Google services....

"...If the victim actually uses Google Docs, the attacker will have access to all documents, spreadsheets, presentations, forms, and drawings stored online by the victim--not just the ones that might have been included as a file attachment in an e-mail.

"Accessing Google Maps could yield valuable information as well. Most users enter a home address as the default location to save time when searching for driving directions....

"...It is up to Google, and China, and the FBI to get to the bottom of whether the compromised accounts are a state-sponsored act of international espionage, or just the work of run-of-the-mill spear phishing cyber-criminals. But, regardless of who is behind the attack, or what the underlying motives are, there is more than just e-mail at stake."
(PCWorld Business Center)

² Excerpt from news and views:

"Putting a positive spin on a sometimes stormy relationship, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Friday that military ties with China are 'on a more positive trajectory' but need further strengthening....

"...The main elements of friction remain, however. China still claims control of waters the U.S. considers international. Chinese ambition for influence in Southeast Asia and elsewhere still makes smaller nations uneasy, while Beijing dislikes the heavy U.S. naval presence in Asian waters and builds up its military with weaponry only logically intended for use against the U.S.

"A new irritant was introduced this week, with allegations that computer hackers in China had compromised the personal Gmail accounts of several hundred people, including U.S. government officials, military personnel and political activists.

"The Chinese military tried to direct the spotlight off those allegations Friday, with accusations that the U.S. is launching a global 'Internet war' to bring down Arab and other governments.

"The FBI said it was investigating Google's allegations, but no official government email accounts have been compromised. Google said all the hacking victims have been notified and their accounts have been secured.....

"...Gates and Liang met on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security talkfest attended by defense officials from across the Asia-Pacific region. On Saturday Gates was delivering an address to the conference before continuing an around-the-world journey that is his final trip before retiring June 30...."
(Associated Press via FoxNews.com)

³ Comments from "Tibet: Fifty Years of Chinese Liberation, and Counting" (March 10, 2009):

"Anonymous said...

"If you are outside of Tibet, just leave Tibet alone, let Tibetan live by themselves, please love your land where you live and shut up. If Dalai was right, a pig could fly.
"March 10, 2009 3:45 PM

"Brian, aka Nanoc, aka Norski said...

"Anonymous,

"If 'Tibetan live by themselves' I might. However, since Tibet was invaded about fifty years ago, and Chinese troops are now stationed to keep the Han shopkeepers safe and Tibetans in line, and quite a number of Tibetans don't like the situation: I will not 'shut up.'

"Kudos, though, at being comparatively civil about it. Particularly in comparison with what may have been another of the throng of Anonymouses out there, responding to 'Today's Main Event: Protesters vs. the Olympic Torch in San Francisco' (April 9, 2008).

"That Anonymous's comment, in full:

"Anonymous said...

"Don't pretend that you know a lot about history. Tibet is still a An English TRANSLATION name as same as Xizang. Now that you don't like China, you can call Xiazang any name you want.
"Suggest you goto a library to read a little more about Tibet then comment on this "Independence", though suggesting going to library is often a mother's duty.
"April 26, 2008 7:54 PM

"March 10, 2009 6:05 PM
"Politics and the Future said...

"China is not my focus in the war on terror only in my economic studies is it a bigger focus for me.

"But I do have to say one thing, with a growing nation could China become a new superpower? could they develop weapons of mass destruction? I know I know I sound like a conspiratist but I'm not. I am only asking.
"I believe they are going to gain more power both militarily and economically.

"March 10, 2009 6:59 PM

"Anonymous said...

"Please pay more attention to your own business. Never lavish your sympathy on Dalai. If you turn blind eyes to the truth and still whitewash a serf owner as your spiritual leader, I would say nothing any more. What do you think if you know those old noble owner picked serfs' eyes and striped their skin for punishment ? They asked serf to take their shit as medicine. How do you feel about it? These only happened several decades ago under Dalai's rule in Tibet. Where is your conscience. How could you depict it as a shangrila? Please look back to the documentary which your western media took before 1990's. If you think you are god and don't need to read, I go.

"March 10, 2009 8:04 PM

"Brian, aka Nanoc, aka Norski said...

"Anonymous #2, or maybe the same Anonymous,

I know that Tibet isn't Shangri-La (Lost Horizon is a pretty good movie, though - so is Star Wars). Live [!] isn't the movies.

"I do, though, seem to have hit a nerve.

"Apparently, one is not supposed to discuss, or mention, the liberation of Tibet - except in glowing terms.

"Anybody interested in the Chinese side of this issue could do a lot worse than reading that op-ed I linked to.

"This isn't just about the Dalai Lama, by the way: the new overlords of Tibet may not be that big an improvement over the monks they displaced.
"March 10, 2009 8:11 PM

"Brian, aka Nanoc, aka Norski said...

"Politics and the Future,

"I think I followed that comment.

"China's nuclear weapons program began, as far as can be determined, in the mid-1950s. At this time, they almost certainly have hundreds, but not thousands, of nuclear bombs in their stockpile. Chinese leaders have repeatedly pledged to not use nuclear weapons first in a confrontation. ("Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) - Nuclear Weapons" GlobalSecurity.org)

"I'm inclined to believe Chinese leaders on this point. After the debacle we call the Cultural Revolution, Chinese leadership has shown few to no suicidal tendencies.

"(North Korea with nukes is a whole different ball of wax.)

"Not that I have unwavering confidence in the good will of the Chinese government.

"For those looking for something to be concerned about, there's China's secret submarine base (no kidding): "Forget the Olympics For Now: China's Secret Submarine Base is Serious" (May 2, 2008)
"March 12, 2009 12:48 PM"
(Comments from "Tibet: Fifty Years of Chinese Liberation, and Counting" (March 10, 2009))

L-3 Communications, Grumman: Hack Attack

I'd like to think that most folks running major technology companies in America are a trifle less clueless than Dilbert's manager:



Unhappily, it doesn't take a pointy-haired manager, or executives who think "password1" is a strong password, to have security troubles.

A system like this sounds fairly safe, I think:

"...SecurID adds an extra layer of protection to a login process by requiring users to enter a secret code number displayed on a keyfob, or in software, in addition to their password. The number is cryptographically generated and changes every 30 seconds...."
(Wired)

The SecurID service probably worked pretty well. Until someone hacked into their system. We still don't know exactly what data was stolen, and how it's been used, but whats been happening to American defense contractors suggests that the encryption seeds for SecurID tokens is available to someone with Internet access.

And an interest in classified data about United States weapons systems.

This is not, in my considered opinion, good news. At all.

I've put excerpts from the last two days' news at the end of this post.¹

There's probably going to be quite a bit of finger-pointing, as word of this these hack attacks spreads. One of the more sensible points to look into, I think, is why more clients of SecurID didn't change their systems after the original hack?!

Oh, Come On: How Bad Could It Be?

Someone speculated that the control system for Predator drones might be hacked with data that's quite possibly been taken from someone's network. About the best outcome of that might be that the drones wouldn't work at all. Someone with a little piloting skill and the right software might decide to hijack a Predator drone and send it on a new mission.

That, I think, would be bad news. But then, I'm one of those people who don't think that the military-industrial complex and Yankee imperialism is the greatest threat to world peace and spotted owls.

Looking beyond strictly military data, America - and a fair number of other countries - depends on a complex power grid and a telecommunications system for most of what we do every day. Which, for quite a few months each year here in Minnesota, includes keeping the temperature inside above freezing.

Back when the Y2K bug was being dealt with, I evaluated my household's resources. Happily, we didn't get a chance to test this: but I'm pretty sure we would have been okay for at least a few weeks, if the power had failed at midnight, December 31, 1999.²

Then there are nightmare scenarios, like someone getting clever with a pharmacy chain's prescription software. Think Colossus: The Forbin Project meets Dr. Giggles.

Maybe the power grid and phone system crashing in mid-winter wouldn't be so bad, after all.

Related posts:

• Hack Attacks
  • "Pentagon's New(ish) Policy About Hack Attacks"
    (May 31, 2011)
  • "Lockheed Martin, Oak Ridge, Spear Phishing, and Common Sense"
    (May 29, 2011)
  • "Lockheed Martin Corp, SecureIDs, EMC, and All That"
    (May 28, 2011)
  • "China, Paper on How to Bring Down USA Power Grid: All a Big Misunderstanding?"
    (March 20, 2010)
  • "World Bank Group Network Hacked; Chinese IPs Used: Just What We Need"
    (October 10, 2008)
• Passwords, security, and common sense
  • "Cloud Computing, Dropbox, and the Postcard Principle"
    Apathetic Lemming of the North (May 13, 2011)
  • "Lemming Tracks: Bad News From Sony; and Getting a Grip"
    Apathetic Lemming of the North (May 3, 2011)
  • "Lemming Tracks: Epsilon Breach, Spam, and Getting a Grip"
    Apathetic Lemming of the North (April 6, 2011)
  • "Strong Passwords: It Can be Done"
    Apathetic Lemming of the North (January 1, 2011)
  • "International Cyber Crime Ring Busted: 'By Jove, I Think They've GOT It!' "
    Apathetic Lemming of the North (October 3, 2010)

In the news:

• "EXCLUSIVE: Northrop Grumman May Have Been Hit by Cyberattack, Source Says"
  Jeremy A. Kaplan, FoxNews.com (June 1, 2011)
• "Second Defense Contractor L-3 'Actively Targeted' With RSA SecurID Hacks"
  Kevin Poulsen, Threat Level, Wired (May 31, 2011)

---

¹ Excerpts from the news:

"Top military contractor Northrop Grumman Corp. may have been hit by a cyber assault, the latest in a string of alarming attacks against military suppliers...."

"...Lockheed Martin said its network had been compromised last week, and defense contractor L-3 Communications was targeted recently, as well. Both intrusions involved the use of remote-access security tokens, experts say.

"On May 26, Northrop Grumman shut down remote access to its network without warning -- catching even senior managers by surprise and leading to speculation that a similar breach had occurred...."

"...Charles Dodd, an information warfare consultant with Nisrad Cyber Research Institute, raised a scary possibility: Unmanned aerial vehicles such as the Predator can be controlled by computers. If hackers access those computers, can they operate those deadly drones?

" 'If adversaries get that technology, we may not be the one that controls those weapons,' he told Fox News.

"The network attacks spiral from a security breach in March, when hackers stole information related to RSA's SecurID access keys...."
(FoxNews.com)

---

"An executive at defense giant L-3 Communications warned employees last month that hackers were targeting the company using inside information on the SecurID keyfob system freshly stolen from an acknowledged breach at RSA Security.

"The L-3 attack makes the company the second hacker target linked to the RSA breach - both defense contractors. Reuters reported Friday that Lockheed Martin had suffered an intrusion.

" 'L-3 Communications has been actively targeted with penetration attacks leveraging the compromised information,' read an April 6 e-mail from an executive at L-3's Stratus Group to the group's 5,000 workers, one of whom shared the contents with Wired.com on condition of anonymity...."

"...Together, the attacks suggest the RSA intruders obtained crucial information - possibly the encryption seeds for SecurID tokens - that they're using in targeted intelligence-gathering missions against sensitive U.S. targets....

"...SecurID adds an extra layer of protection to a login process by requiring users to enter a secret code number displayed on a keyfob, or in software, in addition to their password. The number is cryptographically generated and changes every 30 seconds...."
(Wired)

² No 'survivalist' stuff: the water heater holds a pretty good supply of water, and the basement could be sealed off. It would have been cold and dark, though.

Memorial Day Weekend 2011

This year's Naval Academy graduation ceremony didn't have a Blue Angels flyover this year. The aerobatics squadron's commander quit recently.

That, I think, is an example of the high level of professionalism in the United States military.

Commander Dave Koss had been leading the team since November - but after flying below altitude at a recent appearance, he decided to step down from his position.

That failure to stay within limits set for the mission shouldn't have happened, obviously. What impressed me was Commander Koss accepting responsibility, and letting someone else take over.

Memorial Day Weekend, 2011

It's Memorial Day weekend. For many Americans this is the unofficial start of summer: a three-day holiday that gives folks a chance to get out to the lakes, grill burgers, or just sit on the stoop and relax.

I've grilled burgers, and plan to relax on the stoop later this afternoon. It's a beautiful, warm, sunny day here in central Minnesota.

Before I do that, though, I've got two words for everyone who serves and has served in the American armed forces. Particularly those who never came home:

Thank you.



Related posts:

• "Memorial Day Weekend, 2010: a Long Weekend - and Something Else"
  (May 29, 2010)
• "U.S. Army Chief of Staff Memorial Day Message - Video"
  (May 25, 2009)

In the news:

• "Leader of Blue Angels Quits After Jets Flew Too Low at Recent Air Show"
  FoxNews.com (May 27, 2011)

Military Chaplains Endorsed by Who?!

It looks like someone is - finally - taking a long, hard look at how the American military checks out chaplains. Muslim chaplains, that is.

Don't have a stroke: I don't 'hate Islam;' this isn't a rant about those awful Muslims/foreigners/whatever; and I think it's a good idea to learn if any sort of chaplain thinks that, say, Hamas is a charitable organization.

'They Wouldn't Print It If It Wasn't True?'

I take what I read in the news "with a grain of salt." In some cases, several truckloads of salt. Like the howler I discussed today in another blog:

• "NASA, Extraterrestrial Life: and Titan is a Moon of Saturn, not Mars"
  Apathetic Lemming of the North (December 1, 2010)

I'm inclined to think that the hapless science reporter who wrote about the Martian moon, Titan, should be cut some slack. (Titan orbits Saturn, not Mars, by the way.) FOXNews probably hired some wunderkind who got passed through America's public school system. Which is part of the reason that my kids are home schooled from 7th grade up. And that's yet another topic. (A Catholic Citizen in America (May 20, 2010))

That was an "Air & Space" article - and I've gotten used to clueless, inept, ill-informed 'science' reporting in news media. I think it's a cultural thing. It's important, in America, to know that the Super Bowl is not a basketball game. That Titan circles Saturn, not Mars? Not so much.

Chaplains Endorsed by ISNA? What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Anyway, here's something else that appeared in FOXNews today. It's not that I entirely trust the company: but this article has citations, and somebody was brave enough to have their name in the byline. Odds are that it's factually correct:

"...In a letter sent earlier this month to Sen. Dianne Feinstein, chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, former Inspector General Joseph Schmitz outlined what he believes is the potential risk to national security posed by the military’s current chaplain vetting system.

"Among the concerns Schmitz outlined in his letter, which was obtained by FoxNews.com, are:

"- Reports that Army Maj. Nidal Hasan, accused of 13 counts of murder in last year's Fort Hood massacre, acted as a Muslim lay leader and received training from one of the approved civilian religious groups involved with the Defense Department chaplain program.

"- The identification of the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA), one of two endorsing agencies used by the U.S. military in its approval process for Muslim chaplains,as an unindicted co-conspirator in the 2008 Holy Land Foundation terror fundraising trial.

"- The naming of the ISNA's former endorsing agent, Dr. Louay Safi, as an unindicted co-conspirator in the 2003 trial of Sami Al-Arian, who pleaded guilty to one count of fundraising for the terrorist organization Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Safi is also the subject of a whistleblower investigation.

" 'The November 2008 criminal conviction in Texas of the Holy Land Foundation (HLF) as a front for Hamas, naming of the DoD's Chaplain Endorsing Agents, the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA), as an unindicted co-conspirator (among others), suggests that terrorist organizations can and do disguise themselves as charitable organizations,' Schmitz wrote to Feinstein.

" 'The November 2009 Fort Hood massacre by a commissioned Army officer who served as a lay Muslim leader at Fort Hood demonstrates that international terrorist organizations can also try to disguise their agents as chaplains and religious lay leaders,' he added.

"In a statement to FoxNews.com, Feinstein, D-Calif., said:

" 'We recently received the letter and staff is reviewing it carefully and making inquiries into how all chaplains are vetted by the Defense Department. Certainly chaplains should be carefully interviewed and backgrounds checked, regardless of their religion.'..."
("EXCLUSIVE: Former Defense IG Raises Concerns About Military Chaplain Vetting," Jana Winter, FOXNews (December 1, 2010))

ISNA seems to be under the impression that Hamas is a charitable organization. I've written about ISNA before.

ISNA may or may not actually be involved in terrorism. However, trusting ISNA to endorse chaplains seems to make about as much sense as trusting the Westboro Baptist Church (Topeka). (November 26, 2007)

If this sounds harsh or intolerant: consider a hypothetical situation.

Would it make sense for the American military to accept Christian chaplains, based in part on the endorsements of a group which appears to support white supremacists, and portrays the KKK in the fifties and sixties as a misunderstood political action committee? I don't think so: and I don't think that folks in America's dominant culture would, either.

As for how big a problem the chaplain vetting process is? I don't know. We'll probably learn more, as time passes.

Related posts:

• "Arkansas Recruiting Center Shooting, the Right to Remain Silent, and War"
  (January 22, 2010)
• "Major Nidal Malik Hasan, Imam Anwar al-Awlaki, and Common Sense"
  (November 11, 2009)
• "Holy Land Foundation Sentencing: It's About Terrorism, Not Islam"
  (May 27, 2009)
• "FBI, CAIR, and Hamas - This is Interesting, but Not News"
  (January 30, 2009)
• "ISNA, Hamas, Obama's Inaugural, and the Usual Suspects"
  (January 19, 2009)

In the news:

• Jana Winter, "EXCLUSIVE: Former Defense IG Raises Concerns About Military Chaplain Vetting" Jana Winter, FOXNews (December 1, 2010)

North Korea: Nukes, Missiles, and Underfed Soldiers

A regime like North Korea's has its strengths. Like being able to force large numbers of its subjects into military service. North Korea doesn't seem able to feed its soldiers all that well, or provide them with much of the sort of training that requires fuel or bullets: but boy, does Kim Jon Il's country have a lot of soldiers.

Which is a real concern for folks living in South Korea, among others.

Whether or not the under-fed, ill-equipped North Korean soldiers really believe the propaganda they're fed - it's likely that they believe that they'll be punished if the don't do what the nearest general tells them. Like fire on a South Korean naval ship, or set fire to civilian buildings.

Paranoia, No: Prudence, Yes

I've mentioned Frank Burns, the idiot patriot and quack doctor in the M*A*S*H television series. One of my favorite episodes included a vignette of Dr. Burns looking for land mines in his toothpaste.

That's crazy. It's also funny, and fiction.

This is the real world.

Sadly, no matter how many factually-challenged paranoiacs infested America of the 1950s, today's North Korea is a serious - and very real - problem for anyone within about 2,000 miles - give or take a few hundred.

North Korea's nuclear weapons probably aren't all that much. Last year, Russia confirmed that North Korea had tested a 20-kiloton nuclear bomb. (GlobalSecurity.org (May 25, 2009)) That's a little more powerful than the bomb that devastated Hiroshima, but not by all that much. (GlobalSecurity.org (November 14, 1996))

If North Korea decided to launch a nuclear warhead against, say, Tokyo, folks living on the other side of Mt. Odake might not be hurt a bit. Not directly, anyway. But it would still be a really bad day for Tokyo. And the rest of Japan - and the world.

That 'no man is an island' stuff isn't just poetry. We live in a very interconnected world, and what happens in one nation gets felt everywhere.

I have no reason to believe that someone in North Korea will think it's a good idea to obliterate part of a Japanese city. Or one in South Korea. I have little reason to think that someone won't, either.

It'd be nice if everybody would be nice: but the last several thousand years of recorded history don't suggest that 'being nice' is as common a practice as it should be.

North Korea, Scrambling for Power, and "Miscommunications"

As for North Korea: It looks like Kim Jong Il is - willingly or not - turning control of the country over to someone else. Given the sort of operation he's been running, there could be quite a scramble soon, as generals and other wannabe warlords make a grab for power.

Then there are rumors, mentioned in the following article, about "miscommunications or worse within the North's command-and-control structure."

It's the sort of thing that makes me glad to live over a thousand miles from the Pacific Ocean, deep in the heart of North America.

Excerpts from:
"North Korea's military aging but sizeable"
Tim Lister, CNN World (November 24, 2010)

"It's a bit like train-spotting but rather more serious. On October 10, Korea-watchers pored over live televised coverage of a massive military parade in Pyongyang, held to mark the 65th anniversary of North Korea's ruling party. Just like the Soviet parades of yore, it was a chance to see what military hardware the North might be showing off.

"The official news agency said the parade showed 'the will and might of Songun Korea to wipe out the enemy.' The hardware was accompanied by slogans such as 'Defeat the U.S. Military. U.S. soldiers are the Korean People's Army's enemy.' And besides the incredible synchronized goose-stepping, there were tanks and new missiles.

"Analysts paid special attention to the first public appearance of a road-mobile ballistic missile with a projected range of between 3,000 and 4,000 kilometers (roughly 1,900 to 2,400 miles), though reports of its existence had circulated for several years.....

"...North Korea's nuclear capability and ballistic missile technology are its trump card, to make up for its aging conventional forces and as a bargaining chip in negotiations. So that's what receives the bulk of funding and expertise. But despite economic stagnation, technological limitations and international sanctions, its conventional forces can't be discounted, if only because of their size.

"According to South Korean analysts, the North scraped together what little foreign exchange it had to buy $65 million of weapons from China, Russia and eastern Europe between 2002 and 2008. One example: It appears to have bought Chinese-made ZM-87 anti-personnel lasers, using one to 'illuminate' two U.S. Army Apache helicopters flying along the southern side of the Demilitarized Zone in 2003. None of the crew members was injured.

"China says it continues to be open to military collaboration with Pyongyang and last month welcomed a senior North Korean official to Beijing to 'enhance coordination of the two militaries.' China is thought to have supplied the North with multiple rocket launchers and spare parts for planes, among other equipment. Pyongyang has also turned to Iran and Egypt for military transfers.

"Much of the North's hardware is locally built using Chinese and Russian templates. It has begun deploying a new tank, called the P'okpoong (Storm), which is modeled on the Russian T-62 tank but hardly a match for modern U.S. battle tanks. It's not clear how many of these are in service, but Jane's Armed Forces Editor Alexander von Rosenbach says it is thought that only a few have been delivered -- and they lack devices like thermal imaging sights.

"Also on show at the October parade: a new surface-to-air missile similar to a Chinese model. Jane's concluded that it represented 'a major expansion in North Korea's air defense potential,' with a radar/guidance system that would be harder to jam. And although little is known about the size and scope of the North's artillery, the barrage fired this week at Yeonpyeong Island suggests that it can't be ignored.

"The North Korean regime has also devoted great resources to developing its navy, not with battleships but fast-attack vessels and an array of submarines. Jane's estimates that it has more than 400 surface vessels. And it is not hesitant to use its maritime forces, as demonstrated by the sinking of the 1,200-ton South Korean corvette Cheonan by a torpedo in March. But in a confrontation, the South Korean navy is likely to come off best, as happened in a firefight in 1999.

"The main weakness of the North's military is a chronic shortage of computers, modern command and control and electronic warfare assets -- in other words, much of what makes up the 21st-century battlefield. At the same time, South Korea has used its economic strength to modernize its armed forces: for example, building three $1 billion Aegis-class destroyers to counter ballistic missiles.

"The same applies in the air. North Korea's air force largely comprises aging Soviet MiG fighters (though it has some MiG 29s) .... In addition, the North's air force has suffered fuel shortages, and Jane's estimated that the North's fighter pilots may get as little as 25 flying hours per year. The North Koreans also have a large fleet of Russian-design biplanes that would be better suited to crop-spraying but could be used to drop special forces behind enemy lines in the event of conflict.

"To compensate for obsolescence, the North deploys boots on the ground in great numbers. Jane's estimates that its standing army numbers just over 1 million personnel, with reserves estimated at more than 7 million. But North Korean soldiers are poorly fed, according to analysts and reports from defectors, and rarely train due to scarcity of fuel and ammunition....

"...'With the ongoing leadership transition in North Korea, there have been rumors of discontent within the military, and the current actions may reflect miscommunications or worse within the North's command-and-control structure,' geopolitical risk analysis firm Stratfor says....

"...Short of a general assault, the North clearly has enough in its arsenal to cause damage and death to its adversary, as the torpedo attack in March and the barrage this week have shown. And it has thousands of artillery pieces close to the Demilitarized Zone, which is just 30 kilometers (18 miles) from Seoul. Recent events show that it is also quite ready to exploit the element of surprise...."

Related posts:

• "Korea: 'South Korean Puppet Group' and the Real World"
  (November 23, 2010)
• "South Korean Navy Ship Just Happens to be Sinking"
  (March 26, 2010)
• "Cyber-Attack Started July Fourth: Common Sense, Security, and the War on Terror"
  (July 10, 2009)
• "North Korea's Still There, Still a 'Serious Concern' "
  (June 24, 2009)
• "North Korea and the Kim Jong Dynasty: Not All Countries are the Same"
  (June 9, 2009)
• "North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, Brinksmanship, and Miscalculation"
  (May 27, 2009)
• "North Korea's City-Busting Nuke, a New Missile, and Diplomacy"
  (May 25, 2009)
• "North Korea and Missile Concerns: Nations are Not All Identical"
  (April 5, 2009)
• "Nuclear Materials from North Korea, Sand, or Radioactive Kimchi?"
  (September 18, 2007)

Los Angeles Contrail: Missile? Jet? Giant Atomic Ants?

That contrail that hit the news this morning wasn't from a missile launch - it was from a jet. An expert said so.

That makes sense - or is that what They want us to believe?! Or am I one of Them?! I don't mean a giant man-eating ant. You know: one of the Illuminati/Knights Templar/space aliens who 'really' rule the world. Does that 1954 man-eating atomic ants movie still run on television? That's another topic.

If you get the impression that I don't take experts, conspiracy theories, or movies about atomic tests spawning a Godzilla-size ant problem for Los Angeles very seriously - you're right.

Wait a minute! Them showed mega-ants in the drains of Los Angeles. Today's mysterious contrail was sited over the Pacific near Los Angeles - IT ALL FITS TOGETHER!!!!!!!!

Or, not.

I've collected a few photos and news excerpts. The photos have been altered. By me. I used my graphics software to resample them to a width of 400 pixels - so that they'd fit in this blog's format. Apart from that, they're the way they came from KCBS - via two different national news networks.

Los Angeles Contrail and Comparisons

(KCBS/KCAL, via CNN, used w/o permission)
"Video shot by a news helicopter operated by KCBS/KCAL shows a contrail ascending high into the atmosphere"


(KCBS, via FOXNews, used w/o permission)
"A mysterious vapor trail caught on camera has the military scrambling for answers -- but is it just a jet? On the left, a still image from KCBS video of the launch. On the right, a very similar event from Dec. 31, 2009 commonly believed to be an airplane."

The captions are from CNN and FOXNews. Excerpts from the articles:

"Pentagon can't explain apparent mystery plume off California coast"
Michael Martinez and Casey Wian, U.S., CNN (November 9, 2010)

"The Pentagon is unable to explain images of what witnesses took to be a high-altitude rocket launched off the coast of southern California at sunset Monday, officials said.

"But John Pike, a defense expert who is director of GlobalSecurity.org, said he believes he has solved the mystery.

" 'It's clearly an airplane contrail,' Pike said Tuesday afternoon. 'It's an optical illusion that looks like it's going up, whereas in reality it's going towards the camera. The tip of the contrail is moving far too slowly to be a rocket. When it's illuminated by the sunset, you can see hundreds of miles of it ... all the way to the horizon.

" 'Why the government is so badly organized that they can't get somebody out there to explain it and make this story go away ... I think that's the real story,' Pike added. 'I mean, it's insane that with all the money we are spending, all these technically competent people, that they can't get somebody out there to explain what is incredibly obvious.'..."

Please bear in mind that this is CNN, quoting an expert who's not exactly ecstatic over the fed's handling of this situation.

I think there's little doubt that different news services have different points of view. I do not think that one 'always lies about our Dear Leader' or that another 'is the only one telling The Truth.' Moving on.

"Mystery Solved? Missile Launch Could Be a Jet Contrail"
Air & Space, FOXNews.com (November 9, 2010)

"A video that appears to show a missile launch off the coast of California is so far "unexplained" by anyone in the military, a Pentagon spokesman told reporters Tuesday -- but what seems mysterious could be nothing more than an airplane.

"Federal officials do not consider the event a threat. And they aren't the only ones.

"According to a post on ContrailScience.com, the visible exhaust from a jet engine, a trail of condensed water vapor called a contrail, resembles a missile trail when seen from some angles.

"The confusion between a missile launch and a jet plane launch is caused by several common misconceptions, the site notes, explaining that the angle of launch, the direction of flight, and even the shape of the Earth can lead to the illusion. And indeed, when you look at certain images of jet launches, they do look a fair bit like missiles.

"The site's author goes on to note other factors that could connect the unexplained launch to a jet engine. There's no no bright rocket flare, just a few flashes of sunlight, and a sunlit trail. Plus the unexplained craft is incredibly slow, the site notes, while rockets move incredibly fast.

"Meteorologist Kevin Martin of the Southern California Weather Authority is a believer in the airplane theory, too.

" 'We see this often when the flights come at the right time, however, some people are just out to witness it at the right time,' Martin told Examiner.com in Los Angeles. 'We had strong winds up there as well as really cold temperatures from a passing storm system. This also had an area of upper level moisture ... where airliners fly.'

"And a senior military official told Fox News late Tuesday that indications are that the contrail 'was more likely caused by an airplane than anything else because the other possibilities of rockets or missiles are turning up negative.' But officials still aren't 100 percent sure, so the military is taking steps to review its missile inventory and make sure they're all accounted for.

"A similar mystery event took place on Dec. 31, 2009, when a launch in the skies over Orange County mystified people. The Orange Country Register noted a few days later that the event was variously described as a rocket launch or jet contrails. ContrailScience.com argues that both events were simply planes -- seen from an unexpected angle, that is...."

I gave more space to the FOXNews article, because it seemed to me that they gave more interesting details. Much of the CNN article discussed which military people and agencies didn't known what. That's important - particularly for the commanders involved - but doesn't shed much light on the 'what's that contrail' question. In my opinion.

Remember, though: I could be a giant mutant ant in league with the Illuminati and Ron Paul supporters. I'm not: but I'd be hard-pressed to convince someone determined to believe otherwise.

What's the 'Real Story?'

I think Mr. Pike, as quoted in the CNN article, raised an important question:

"...'Why the government is so badly organized that they can't get somebody out there to explain it and make this story go away ... I think that's the real story,'...."
(CNN)

This post isn't, as I've written before, political. Not in the sense that I am committed to saying that one party is stupid and another is smart. I do bring up political matters from time to time, when they relate to the war on terror (which doesn't, officially, exist any more - apparently). (March 30, 2009)

For what it's worth, it's my opinion that the current administration hasn't done anywhere near as badly as I feared might be the case.

So: Do I think that America Is Doomed, or " 'The Army is Unraveling' - Just Like Vietnam!"? No. Not at all.

I do think that a reporter in an aircraft over Los Angeles saw something in the sky, west of the city. And got some pretty good video of the phenomenon. Also, that the American military probably hasn't identified precisely what it is. Also, that the various units of the military which don't know precisely what that news guy saw have said that they don't know.

I also think it's important to draw a distinction between facts and speculation. The facts that we have, so far, is that video was taken of a contrail in the sky west of Los Angeles. Also that the American military hasn't announced a definite, demonstrable explanation for what made the contrail.

Finally, we've got a Federal government which seems - and I stress seems to have done a less-than-ideal job of handling public relations in this matter. That's actually getting very close to being speculation. The 'Federal government screwed up' approach is, I think, more of a value judgment than a fact.

UFOs! Flying Saucers! Intergalactic Pregnancy Tests!

I remember when I could count on seeing a few 'I was abducted by aliens' stories in the grocery checkout each month. At one point, the space aliens seemed inordinately obsessed with giving Earthlings pregnancy tests.

And that's very much another topic. Probably for a blog covering abnormal psychology and/or news media. Or maybe both.

I think this morning's contrail is - in a way - a situation like UFO sightings. It's well to remember that a UFO is an Object that was Flying, and wasn't identified: Unidentified Flying Object. What "UFO" does not mean, outside some fairly specialized literary genres, is "Alien Space Ship From Beyond the Stars" or "Flying Saucer."

So far, it looks like whatever made that contrail is (literally) a UFO. Thank goodness nobody picked up on that, or we'd be knee-deep in space alien stories. Or maybe that sort of thing has gone out of fashion.

Or, maybe that's the angle that editors will take with the next wave of stories on this incident.

Particularly if tomorrow is a slow news day.

Not-completely-unrelated posts:

• "Missile Launched Near Los Angeles: Prelude to Attack, or the Next Bond Movie?"
  (November 9, 2010)
• "Mexico, Losing America, Getting a Grip"
  (June 17, 2010)
• "Army Emergency Relief Scandal: Stockpiling, Hoarding, and 'Never Mind?' "
  (February 26, 2009)
• "Video Proof: Space Aliens Land at Obama Inauguration"
  Apathetic Lemming of the North (January 24, 2009)
• " 'The Army is Unraveling' - Just Like Vietnam!"
  (March 19, 2008)

In the news:

• "Pentagon can't explain apparent mystery plume off California coast"
  Michael Martinez and Casey Wian, U.S., CNN (November 9, 2010)
• "Mystery Solved? Missile Launch Could Be a Jet Contrail"
  Air & Space, FOXNews.com (November 9, 2010)
• "Cameraman who filmed 'mystery missile' describes spectacular sight"
  Local, L.A. Now, Tony Barboza, Los Angeles Times (November 9, 2010)

Missile Launched Near Los Angeles: Prelude to Attack, or the Next Bond Movie?

---

Update (9:01 p.m. Central, November 9, 2010)

There's a really good chance that this was the contrail of a jet - seen from a modestly unusual angle. I've discussed this in another post:

• "Los Angeles Contrail: Missile? Jet? Giant Atomic Ants?
  (November 9, 2010)

---

At this moment, I'm assuming that the "substantial missile" spotted by a KCBS news helicopter was launched by:

• Filmmakers
• Someone in a branch of the U.S. military who
  • Didn't fill out all the right paperwork
  • Pushed the wrong button
  • Is working on something very hush-hush
    • Just off the coast of Los Angeles?!!
• Somebody else

It's the 'somebody else' option that has me - a little concerned. It would be a major coup for one of the outfits whose leaders have decided that America is the reason for their problems. In the "counting coup" sense of the word.


(KCBS, via FOXNews, used w/o permission)
"Nov. 8: An unexplained missile is shot off the California coast."

I'm pretty sure it's not the work of:

• Ron Paul supporters
• The CIA
• Space-alien shape-shifting lizard people

I was going to put 'the commies' in that list - but that's actually a remote possibility.

North Korea might be able to at least borrow a launch platform - maybe a submarine or an innocuous-looking surface vessel.

China has the capability for a launch of this sort. But their thing lately seems to be hack attacks on computer networks and toxic Snickers Peanut Funsize and baby formula. (March 20, 2010, February 19, 2010, May 25, 2009, October 4, 2008, September 29, 2008) I'll admit that the toxic candy and baby formula might not have been intended as an attack. China seems to be having trouble adjusting to the idea that folks not under their control really don't like melamine in their food. And won't keep quiet when it shows up. Which is another topic.

From the news:

" Pentagon calls mystery missile 'unexplained,' cannot rule out threat"
news.com.au (November 10, 2010) (International Dateline: It's 'tomorrow' there)

"THE Pentagon said a missile launch off the southern coast of California remained "unexplained" and that its mysterious origins meant that it was not possible to rule out any threat to the homeland.

"Earlier yesterday, NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command) and NORTHCOM (United States Northern Command) officials told Fox there was no threat.

"However, Pentagon Spokesman Colonel Dave Lapan would not confirm that because the military does not know what the missile was or where it came from.

"Col Lapan added that the incident did not appear to be a regularly scheduled test, as no warnings to mariners or airmen appeared to be issued ahead of its launch.

"The contrail was caught on camera by a KCBS news helicopter at around sunset Monday evening, approximately 50km out to sea and west of Los Angeles.

"The missile appeared to be launched from the water, and not from US soil, Col Lapan added.

"The military was trying to solve the mystery using the video from KCBS as there was no indication that NORAD and NORTHCOM were able to detect it independently...."

---

"Pentagon Has 'No Clue' Who Launched SoCal Missile"
News | Breaking, NBC San Diego (November 9, 2010)

"Someone launched a missile near Los Angeles Monday night and as of Tuesday morning, the Pentagon still doesn't know who.

"A local television station showed video of the launch spotted around 5 p.m. captured by a traffic helicopter around sunset. The location was reported to be west of Los Angeles, north of Catalina Island and approximately 35 miles out to sea, KFMB reported.

"It does appear a substantial missile was launched into the skies over Southern California Monday evening but no one in the military is owning up to it yet, according to NBC Pentagon correspondent Jim Miklaszewski...."

Time to Panic? Probably Not

I suppose I could emulate red-white-and-blue-blooded 'real' Americans, go into full panic mode and start ranting about how people I don't agree with are to blame for letting the commies wipe motherhood, apple pie and America from the face of the earth.

Or, if my point of view was closer to that of America's current dominant culture, I could rant about how this is what happens when people don't believe in global warming, won't recognize a person's right to marry his pillow, and aren't afraid of acid rain. Wait a minute. Acid rain's sort of démodé by now.

The pillow guy is in Korea, by the way. I'm not making that up. (A Catholic Citizen in America (August 7, 2010))

Back to that mystery missile:

My guess - and hope - is that the missile was fired off by a film company that didn't let folks know what they were going to do. Or hoped for the sort of publicity they'll get if this was a private launch. Another strong possibility, in my opinion, is that someone in the American military either didn't file the right paperwork to let the chain of command know what was happening - or pushed the wrong button.

In the latter case, my sympathy is with whoever goofed. Considering how much it'll cost to find out what happened - it isn't the sort of thing that can be called a 'little' mistake.

Or, maybe someone's finding out what happens when a missile is launched within a few dozen miles of one of America's biggest cities.

That's the possibility that's got my attention.

In the news:

• "Pentagon Has 'No Clue' Who Launched SoCal Missile"
  News | Breaking, NBC San Diego (November 9, 2010)
• " Pentagon calls mystery missile 'unexplained,' cannot rule out threat"
  news.com.au (November 10, 2010) (the date? International Dateline)

U.A.E. Ambassador and Iran: One Insane Speech Too Many?

It's possible that Iran's Ayatollahs have made one insane speech too many.

A Washington Times article yesterday said that the United Arab Emirates ambassador to the United States was okay with using military force to stop Iran's nuclear program. And said so in public.

Ambassador Yousef al-Otaiba apparently would like to give sanctions a chance - but if that doesn't change Iran's policy, well: "We cannot live with a nuclear Iran" is the way the article says that he put it.

Apparently other Arab diplomats have said essentially the same thing privately: the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) ambassador is the first one to go public.

I don't think this is anything to celebrate: any sort of military strike on Iran is likely to be messy. On the other hand, I'm rather relieved that at least one diplomat from the Islamic world seems to have decided that on the whole, he'd rather be alive, than pretend that Iran is okay because they're "Islamic."

It's a sort of victory for common sense.

Related posts:

• "Zimbabwe, Iran, and Uranium: Oh, Jolly"
  (May 4, 2010)
• "Boobquake! I am Not Making This Up"
  (April 23, 2010)
• "Iran's Need(?) for Power, the Natanz Underground Uranium Enrichment Site, and the IAEA"
  (December 5, 2009)
• "Protesting Election Fraud is 'Waging War Against God' - Ayatollah Khatami "
  (June 28, 2009)
• "Nuclear War in the Middle East: Messy, Lethal, and Brief"
  (December 24, 2007)

In the news:

• "U.A.E. diplomat mulls hit on Iran's nukes"
  The Washington Times (July 6, 2010)

American Military Tests Antimissile System: Smart Move, I Think

Well, that's interesting:

"Test of newest U.S. missile defense technology will simulate attack by Iran"
CNN (December 19, 2009)

"The U.S. military's Missile Defense Agency will practice protecting the United States from a simulated Iranian missile attack next month in an exercise using the agency's newest missile-killing technology, Pentagon officials said Friday.

Previous tests have been focused on a missile trajectory that mimics an attack from North Korea, but the January test will have a trajectory and distance resembling an intercontinental ballistic missile launch from Iran...."

One point that makes this newsworthy is that similar tests had been performed, simulating incoming missiles from North Korea. This time, the virtual warheads started in Iran.

The conventional wisdom I encountered, some thirty to forty years back, was that just about everything was America's fault. Like the Soviet Union doing mean things.

The idea was that if the capitalistic, imperialistic warmonger military-industrial complex would just apologize for causing poverty, racism, and bad crops, and abolish the armed forces: everything would be nice. Given the starting assumptions that folks who held similar views had, it practically made sense.

It's Different, When You're in Charge

I've said this before: President Obama is not, in my opinion, a fool; nor is he, again in my opinion, particularly stupid. He also probably wants to have a second term as president of the United States. A prerequisite condition for that is that there to be a United States to be president of.

Whatever sort of 'happy face' rhetoric he (or any other candidate) used during the election campaign: now that he's president Obama has shown a (distressing, from some points of view) tendency to act as though there are people out there who aren't very nice, and who want to kill Americans.

Imagine.

I Don't agree with him on many points: but credit where credit is due.

Iranian missiles reaching American states?

The last I read, Iran's missiles could reach most of the Middle East, the more heavily-populated parts of Russia, and some of Europe and Africa.

I doubt that they've got intercontinental-range missiles yet. On the other hand, it's not that much of a stretch to imagine that Iran could outfit a cargo ship with a launch platform and deliver missiles from not-all-that-far offshore: anywhere.

I live a little east of the geographical center of North America, a thousand miles from the Atlantic Ocean. Central Minnesota is, I would think, a fairly low-value target anyway. I mean to say, would you get quite the same bang for your buck, wiping out a place like Long Prairie, Sauk Centre, or Glenwood: compared with the impact of finishing the job in New York City or Washington?

Still, although I'm pretty sure I live far away - and upwind - of the prime targets, I'd just as soon not have any cities subjected to instant urban renewal.

That's not "American cities" - any cities. Iran's Ayatollahs and Islamic crazies hate America - and Israel - but they don't seem all that fond of most other people and places, either.

Related posts:

• "Iran, Protests, Internet Blackout, and Nuclear Bombs"
  (December 7, 2009)
• "Iran's Need(?) for Power, the Natanz Underground Uranium Enrichment Site, and the IAEA"
  (December 5, 2009)
• "Imperialist American Aggressors Attack Poland?"
  (October 30, 2009)
• "Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program: Oops, Let's Look at That Again"
  (October 16, 2009)
• "Obama, Iran, Missiles, Europe, and "What the heck did they tell him?""
  (September 17, 2009)
• "North Korea and the Kim Jong Dynasty: Not All Countries are the Same"
  (June 9, 2009)
• "Iran Has Heavy Metal for Bomb, No Bomb: Yet"
  (March 1, 2009)
• "Unintended Consequences? The West May be Getting Over Hiroshima"
  (January 25, 2008)

In the news:

• "Test of newest U.S. missile defense technology will simulate attack by Iran"
  CNN (December 19, 2009)

Commie Plots, Cholesterol, Frank Burns, Hugo Chavez, and 2012

In the "good old days," when I was growing up, a vocal portion of the American populace were convinced that commie plots were behind just about everything they didn't like.

By the time I was paying attention, they had a declining influence over the American government's decisions. In my opinion their greater contribution to the culture was a fairly steady stream of gaffes, and being a highly identifiable group for comedians to joke about, satirists to satirize, and writers to use as the basis for memorable - if somewhat two-dimensional - characters like Frank Burns of M*A*S*H.

That was then, this is now. Acid rain, the terrible dangers of electrical transmission lines, and global warming, have replaced "commie plots" as effective rallying cries. Although not for the same people as were swayed by the likes of Wisconsin's Senator Joseph McCarthy, of course. It's hard to imagine a politician building his or her campaign on the claim that there are some number of known communists in the State Department.

Or, if some politico was crazy enough to try - winning a state or national election.

Hugo Chavez, Weather Control, Democracy and All That

This afternoon, discussing western-hemisphere politics and cultural history with my oldest daughter, we ran over the idea that democracy was the only viable, or for that matter, decent, form of government.

The idea died at the scene.

Our conversation ricocheted in another direction: which has even less to do with the general topic of this blog than this post.

The encounter with one of the basic assumptions of many Americans - that democracy is the only "right" way to run a country - reminded me of something I wrote about a year ago:

Military Rule as the Ideal Form of Government

No, I don't really think so, but look at this:

• Government by Religious Leaders
  Example: Afghanistan under the Taliban
  Result: Terrorism
• Government by Monarch
  Example: Saudi Arabia
  Result: Terrorists
  • (15/19 of the 9/11 hijackers were Saudis)
• Government by Elected Leaders
  Example: Somalia
  Result: Terrorists - and pirates
• Government by Military Ruler
  Example: Guinea
  • Assuming that the elections were as faked as critics claim
  Result: No terrorism (and no pirates, either)

You see?! That 'proves' that military rule is superior to old-fashioned monarchies, theocracies, and constitutional democracies.

What's Wrong With This Picture?

Pretty obvious, isn't it? I carefully selected examples that supported my claim. That can make for effective propaganda, but it's not good reasoning.

As a matter of fact, I don't have the visceral, reflexive revulsion that many Americans have toward the idea of having a country run by military or religious rulers. I think it depends on what individuals are running the show, and which side of the eighteenth century most of the country's people live on.
(December 29, 2008)

Hugo Chavez is the leader of a constitutional democracy. Venezuela's current constitution dates from December 30, 1999 - and President Chavez was elected in 2006 by a respectable margin: 62.9% to 36.9%. The next election for the Venezuelan president is in 2012.¹

The Mayan "Long Count," and 2012; and 7138; and 12263; and 17388; and ---

Which brings up the point of this post. Quite a number of people seem to assume that 2012 will be when the world ends.

As a matter of fact, December 21, 2012, is when a "Long Count" cycle of the Mayan calendar will end - assuming that the current Long Count started on August 11, 3114 BC. If it started on August 13 - which is possible - the cycle re-starts on December 23, 2012. It'll also re-start in the spring of 7138, summer of 12263, autumn of 17388, and so on.²

Western civilization's calendar uses a base-ten numeric system, and involves centuries and millennia. We just experienced the end of one of our 'long cycles' - December 31, 1999 - and Y2K went past without an apocalypse. (Yes, there was a real issue with legacy software - which encouraged some long-overdue upgrades and re-engineering.)

I don't expect to influence people who are convinced that:

• Commie plots are behind every disagreeable event
• We're all gonna die from
  • Acid rain
  • Cholesterol (high or otherwise)
  • Global warming
  • The end of a Mayan calendrical cycle

On the other hand, I think there's some merit in reminding the rest of us that assumptions are a convenient mental shortcut - and should be re-considered now and again.

Related post:

• "Guinea, Military Rule, and Terrorism: Beware Hasty Judgment"
  (December 29, 2008)

In the news:

• "Chavez asking Cubans to 'bomb clouds' amid drought"
  Reuters, via Thomson Reuters Foundation AlertNet (November 15, 2009)

Background:

• ¹ Venezuela
  • "Venezuela"
    World Factbook, CIA (last updated November 11, 2009)
• ² Mayan calendar
  • "Converting from the Mayan Calendar"
    University of Nevada, Reno
  • "Mayan Calendar"
    Pomona College, Claremont, California
  • "What's going to happen on December 21st 2012?"
    Curious About Astronomy?

---

Hugo Chavez may, eventually, be the basis of a character as colorful and memorable as Frank Burns. From today's news:

"Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez says he will join a team of Cuban scientists on flights to "bomb clouds" to create rain amid a severe drought that has aroused public anger due to water and electricity rationing.

"Chavez, who has asked Venezuelans to take three-minute showers to save water, said the Cubans had arrived in Venezuela and were preparing to fly specially equipped aircraft above the Orinoco river.

" 'I'm going in a plane; any cloud that crosses me, I'll zap it so that it rains,' Chavez said at a ceremony late on Saturday with family members of five Cubans convicted of spying in the United States...."
(Reuters)

Obama, Iran, Missiles, Europe, and "What the heck did they tell him?"

It's in today's news: The (diabolical, according to some) Bush administration's plans to put a (shudder) missile defense system in Europe are being dropped.

Peaceniks¹ of America have little reason to cheer, though. President Barack Obama, the 'change' president, is changing the Bush-era missile defense system plans. Not, apparently, scrapping them.

"... The 'new missile defense architecture in Europe ... will provide capabilities sooner, build on proven systems and offer greater defenses against the threat of missile attack than the... program' that former President George W. Bush proposed, Obama said.

"Obama said the change of gears was based on an 'updated intelligence assessment' about Iran's ability to hit Europe with missiles.

"The Islamic republic's 'short- and medium-range' missiles pose the most current threat, he said, and 'this new ballistic missile defense will best address' that threat...."
(CNN)

As I've said before, "it's different when you're in charge." (September 27, 2007)

Why I Hope None of My Descendants Become President

I'd have said "kids," but I hope that they're not the last of the people my wife and I have launched. God willing, there will soon be grandchildren - and I tend to look at the long term, in both directions.

It's been a while since I've seen the phrase, "it's good to be king." The idea is that it's pleasant, on the whole, to be at the top of the ladder in terms of authority.

In a way, that can be true: in the short term. Take Saddam Hussein, for example. His lifestyle was lavish, even by American standards. Until two dozen or so nations 'unilaterally' jumped on his throat.

That's a sort of worst-case scenario, of course.

Most American presidents I've seen have aged - sometimes fast - once they got into the Oval Office. Understandably. There's a lot of responsibility that goes along with the perks of having a live-in cook and domestic staff.

Last year, after Barack Obama became President-Elect Obama, a strictly-for-laughs blog came out with a post that included before-and-after photos, and this paragraph:

"...This is after less than a day of briefings and staff meetings where they tell him all the big secrets. Like about the alien plan to invade Earth in February. Like the White House television uses an antenna and won't get H.D. Like Mississippi and Alabama will probably continue to be states. You know, junk like that...."
(Oddly Enough, Reuters)

Oddly Enough's author was (probably) kidding "about the alien plan to invade Earth in February."

Unhappily, not all threats to America - and the rest of the world - are quite that imaginary.

Which is why I rather hope that my descendants do what my forebears have done for generations out of mind: stayed at or below the midpoint of the economic ladder; and well away from positions that would require them to make life-and-death decisions for a nation.

Iran's Been a Threat for Years - What Changed?

What I find a bit unsettling about President Obama's decision is that "updated intelligence assessment" phrase. It's been public knowledge for years that Iran had ballistic and/or cruise missiles that could deliver a warhead to parts of eastern Europe. Nuclear weapons, not yet: but even a conventional warhead could do noticeable damage.

Years from now, the details will probably come out. Meanwhile, I prefer to hope that the president is making the best of what for him is a bad situation: having to provide a viable defense for America's European neighbors; while making it appear that he isn't like the 'diabolical' President Bush.

An alternative explanation for Obama's 'get defenses up fast' approach is that

• Iran's gotten new technology
• Enhanced it's existing weapons inventory
• Decided to fire missiles, ready or not
• Some combination of the above

- - - And that we've got a limited time in which to keep places like Kiev, Bucharest, Budapest and Belgrade from experiencing instant urban renewal.

Related posts:

• "Russian Submarines Near America: There's Probably a Reason"
  (August 4, 2009)
  Particularly
  • What Possible Reason Could There be For Missile Defense Systems in Europe?
  • Yes: Iran Could Bomb European Targets
• "Afghanistan, Helmand Province: It's Different, When You're in Charge"
  (July 3, 2009)
• "Of President Obama, Politics, and the Another War-on-Terror Blog"
  (June 21, 2009)
• "Iran's Nuclear Program, Israel, Iraq, America, Bush and Obama: Simple? Not!"
  (January 11, 2009)
• "President-Elect Obama's Problem With Left-Wing Bloggers"
  (December 22, 2008)
• "President-Elect Barack Obama and Rhambo: Change Begins Now"
  (November 7, 2008)
  • A post inspired by
    "What the heck did they tell him?"
    Oddly Enough, Reuters Blogs (November 6, 2008)
• "Iranian Nukes, Israeli Attack, Diplomacy, and Common Sense"
  (June 21, 2008)
• "Milestones in Iraq and Iran"
  (February 4, 2008)
• "The War on Terror: Not Just America's Problem"
  (December 31, 2007)
• "Jews Flee Iran, Fearing Persecution: Sound Familiar?"
  (December 25, 2007)
• "It's Different, When You're in Charge"
  (September 27, 2007)

In the news:

• "Obama scraps Bush-era missile defense for new plan"
  CNN (September 17, 2009)

---

Peaceniks¹ Peacenik: ">someone who prefers negotiations to armed conflict in the conduct of foreign relations". (self?) defined at Princeton's WordNet) A peacenik is certainly not one those big, rough, icky (shudder) military types, who make it safe for peaceniks to hold anti-war demonstrations.