CIA Says Osama bin Laden Isolated: Can Everybody Go Home Now?

It's in the news: Osama bin Laden is isolated. He's not actually running Al Qaeda now.

Does this mean that all the troops can go home now? From what some very intelligent (just ask them) people say, maybe they can. And should:

• Osama bin Laden is really important
• He's the one to blame for 9/11
• Anything not obviously focused on serving Osama bin Laden with an arrest warrant is a mistake
  • And the fault of George W. Bush

Me? I think that there's more going on than Osama bin Laden and his vision for Islam. And, I don't see response to the 9/11 attack as something that should be handled by law enforcement. Neither do many others, now, from what I've heard and read.

Osama bin Laden, Al Qaeda, and the War on Terror: It's Not Over Yet

My guess is that we're still closer to the beginning of the War on Terror, than its end.

I'm not being pessimistic: but this conflict is not like the major global wars of the 20th century, where there American and other nations were facing an enemy with a well-defined territory, combatants who were, by and large, readily identifiable, and headquarters that could be seized.

The War on Terror is going to take time.

Here's a bit of what CIA Director Michael Hayden said about Osama bin Laden, as reported on CNN:

• " 'He is putting a lot of energy into his own survival -- a lot of energy into his own security,' ...
  " 'In fact, he appears to be largely isolated from the day-to-day operations of the organization he nominally heads....'"
• "...'Al Qaeda has suffered serious setbacks, but it remains a determined, adaptive enemy unlike any our nation has ever faced,' Hayden said. 'The war is far from over.' "
• " 'This is an organization that has never been through a change at the top,' he said. 'For 20 years, bin Laden has been the visionary, the inspiration or harmonizing force behind al Qaeda....' "

Would capturing or killing bin Laden be good for people who aren't with Al Qaeda? Almost certainly, yes.

Is Osama bin Laden the only target in the War on Terror? Definitely not.

Am I disheartened at how long the War on Terror has been going on?

No: but then, I'm a historian. I recognize that the War on Terror isn't a matter of one nation attacking another, or even a war between many nations. Al Qaeda and its affiliates are going to be very, very, difficult to overcome.

But, I think that the strange vision of Islam that bin Laden and some others have will not win. As I've written before, there are Muslims who do not see eye-to-eye with the likes of Al Qaeda. And, even in the Middle East, some Muslims are starting to question their more enthusiastic leaders (see "Chief Saudi Judge: Death to Network Owners!" (September 19, 2008)).

In the news:

• "CIA head says bin Laden isolated, fighting to survive"
  CNN (November 13, 2008)