Iran, International Nuclear Inspectors, and Russian Submarines

Iran's in the news again, or still. In a way, it's the same story we've been reading for years: U.N. inspectors aren't allowed to see sites involved in Iran's nuclear program.

International Inspectors and Business as Usual

This time, the Ayatollahs didn't want outsiders to see a "key military site." Can't say that I blame them, in a way. Iran's been insisting that its nuclear program doesn't involve weapons: or maybe that there is no nuclear program. Or that there is, and it's strictly for curing the sick and benevolent purposes like that.

Facts have a way of getting in the way of 'official' versions of reality. Whoever is running Iran at the moment probably realizes that international diplomacy will be easier, if the foreigners know as little as possible about what's actually happening in Iran.

There's nothing unusual about the situation, in a way. Iran's been giving Saudi Arabia stiff competition, in terms of making Islamic government look like a bad idea: and has been, ever since 1979. Sudan's rulers are serious contenders in that race: and that's another topic.

Russia, Submarines, and Cold War Stuff

I think one of the harder lessons for many folks to learn is that things change. Like the Cold War. When, from one point of view, the world was a battleground for a fairly simple confrontation:

• 'The good guys' - America
  • Mom
  • Apple pie
  • The flag
• 'The bad guys' - Russia Soviet Union and China
  • Slavery
  • Ugly clothes
  • Yellow peril

I'm oversimplifying the situation, of course. Another, equally-goofy, way of looking at the Cold War era was to see the world as divided between the oppressed proletariat and capitalistic warmongers.

Folks in Russia finally got tired of living in a workers' paradise, and China's leaders may be reevaluating their economic philosophies - yet more topics.

The point is, this isn't the late 20th century.

I think another hard lesson is that not everything is about 'me,' or 'us.' Take Russia's navy getting back in the habit of having submarines with ballistic missiles patrolling international waters. I've run into the opinion that it's intended as a response to - or provocation of - the American government.

Maybe that's true: but it occurs to me that Russian leaders may have something besides 'Yankee imperialism' on their minds this time. Iran's uncomfortably close to Russia, may start building nuclear weapons soon, and might reasonably be seen as a threat. Those submarines might be intended as a sort of reminder to the Ayatollahs that actions have consequences.

Which gets me back to Iran, a nuclear weapons program that we're supposed to believe doesn't exist, and one of today's less calming situations.

Religious Crazies with Nuclear Missiles?

I sincerely hope that Iran's goofy president doesn't represent what most of the Ayatollahs really think is true. There's some reason to believe that - yet again more topics:

• "Iran lawmakers vote to force president to testify"
  J. David Goodman, New York Times, via San Francisco Chronicle (February 8, 2012)

I don't think that today's world is 'the Cold War all over again.' Crossing out 'commies,' and writing in 'Muslims,' doesn't make sense. Neither does trying to apply the other alternatively-sane worldview I outlined earlier.

Like they say, 'it's complicated.'

One of my concerns is that Iran's leadership has been doing a very good job of looking like ideologues with control issues. Convictions of 'foreign spies' reminds me of the 'good old days' of the HUAC in this country: and political correctness a few decades after that.

I'm about as sure as I can be that all Muslims are not on the same page as the Ayatollahs, or Al Qaeda, or Sudan's touchy rulers.

But I'm very concerned that Iran's leadership might decide that it's time to smite the unbeliever - with nuclear weapons. Russia's immediate neighbors - and parts of Europe - could experience massive, sudden, urban renewal if that happens.

I'm not concerned because I think Muslims, or religious people in general, are likely to kill folks they don't like. It's because I think Iran's Ayatollahs may be to Islam what the KKK was to Christianity: a dangerous bunch of folks with a distorted set of beliefs.

Here's what got me started:

"Iran nuclear row: UN inspectors barred from Iran site"
BBC News (February 21, 2012)

"The UN nuclear watchdog says Iran has stopped a team of inspectors from visiting a key military site.

"The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says no deal was been reached on inspecting the Parchin site, south of Tehran, despite 'intensive efforts'.

"The inspectors had sought to clarify the 'possible military dimensions' of Iran's nuclear programme...."

---

"Iran Would Consider Pre-emptive Strike on Its Enemies, Fars Says"
Caroline Alexander, Business Week (February 21, 2012)

"Iran would consider taking pre-emptive action in response to threats, an Iranian military commander said, according to the state-run Fars news agency.

" 'We will no more wait to see enemy action against us,' Fars quoted Mohammad Hejazi, deputy head of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces for Logistic and Industrial Research, as saying in an interview...."

---

"Russian SSBNs to Resume Patrols in International Waters in June 2012"
Naval Today (February 7, 2012)

"Russian nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines will resume patrols in international waters in June 2012, said Russian Navy Commander-in-Chief Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky.

" 'On June 1 or a bit later, we will resume permanent patrols of nuclear strategic submarines in the World Ocean', said Vysotsky on Feb 3 at Navy command briefing...."

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Somewhat-related posts:

• Nuclear Iran
  • "Iran, a Nuclear Weapons Program to Cure Disease, and Centrifuges"
    (April 9, 2011)
  • "Iran, Dubious Equipment, and a Nuclear Weapons Program that Doesn't Exist"
    (March 18, 2011)
  • "Stuxnet: Inhuman Secret Agent"
    (November 26, 2010)
  • "Iran, an Unmanned Bomber, Nuclear Weapons, and No Simple Answers"
    (August 22, 2010)
  • "Russian Official Declares First-Strike Nuke Policy: Why?"
    (January 19, 2008)
• Living in a big world
  • "Egypt, Iran: It Can't Happen Here?"
    (February 10, 2011)
  • "Iran, Dissent, and Threats to National Security"
    (February 10, 2011)
  • "9/11 and the One-Size-Fits-All Explanation: 'It is the Fault of the Jews' - and the Yankees"
    (September 24, 2010)
  • "Iran, Twitter, and the Responsibilities of Proper British Gentlemen"
    (December 29, 2009)
  • "Pray for Neda: And Learn About the Real Iran"
    (June 26, 2009)
• Religion, and getting a grip
  • "Freedom, Even For 'Those People Over There' "
    (November 11, 2011)
  • "With Friends Like These, Islam Doesn't Need Enemies"
    (April 14, 2011)
  • "Lebanese Man Due for Beheading in Saudi Arabia"
    (March 31, 2010)
  • "Sudan, Women, Trousers, Culture and Common Sense"
    (September 7, 2009)
  • "Protesting Election Fraud is 'Waging War Against God' - Ayatollah Khatami"
    (June 28, 2009)

In the news:

• "U.N. watchdog says nuclear talks with Iran failed"
  Fredrik Dahl, Reuters UK (February 22, 2012)
• "Iran nuclear row: UN inspectors barred from Iran site"
  BBC News (February 21, 2012)
• "Iran Would Consider Pre-emptive Strike on Its Enemies, Fars Says"
  Caroline Alexander, Business Week (February 21, 2012)
• "Russian SSBNs to Resume Patrols in International Waters in June 2012"
  Naval Today (February 7, 2012)
• "Iran lawmakers vote to force president to testify"
  J. David Goodman, New York Times, via San Francisco Chronicle (February 8, 2012)

Background:

• "Iran"
  World Factbook, CIA (last updated February 8, 2012)
• "Saudi Arabia"
  World Factbook, CIA (last updated February 8, 2012)