North Korea, 'Imperialists,' and All That

This could be serious, or not:

"...On Thursday, North Korean state media reported leader Kim Jong-un 'judged the time has come to settle accounts with the US imperialists'.

"He was said to have condemned US B-2 bomber sorties over South Korea during military exercises as a 'reckless phase' that represented an 'ultimatum that they will ignite a nuclear war at any cost on the Korean peninsula'. ..."
(BBC News)

On the one hand, North Korea has a limited supply of nuclear weapons, missiles that might reach targets other than South Korea, and a new leader who may not have his father's talent for self-preservation.

On the other hand, speeches about western imperialists were a perennial favorite during the Cold War: and still popular in some circles.

A Choice of Emphasis

BBC News and Reuters coverage of the Korean situation present nearly the same facts, but each seems to have its own distinct point of view.

First, how Reuters starts:

"North Korea says enters 'state of war' against South"
Jack Kim, Reuters (March 30, 2013)

"North Korea said on Saturday it was entering a 'state of war' with South Korea, but Seoul and its ally the United States played down the statement as tough talk.

"Pyongyang also threatened to close a border industrial zone, the last remaining example of inter-Korean cooperation which gives the impoverished North access to $2 billion in trade a year.

"The United States said it took Pyongyang's threats seriously but cautioned that the North had a history of bellicose rhetoric. Russia, another a permanent U.N. Security Council member, urged all sides to show restraint...."

It's fairly even-handed reporting: although I get the impression that we're supposed to see American leaders carelessly ignoring deadly threats to world peace, while Russian leaders wisely implore restraint.

Or, not.

Here are the BBC News lead paragraphs:

"North Korea enters 'state of war' with South"
BBC News (March 30, 2013)

"North Korea has said it is entering a 'state of war' with South Korea in the latest escalation of rhetoric against its neighbour and the US.

"A statement promised 'stern physical actions' against 'any provocative act'.

"North Korea has threatened attacks almost daily since it was sanctioned for a third nuclear test in February.

"However, few think the North would risk full-blown conflict. It has technically been at war with the South since 1953 as no peace treaty has been signed.

"An armistice at the end of the Korean War was never turned into a full treaty...."

There's more: I recommend reading both articles, at least. What struck me about BBC coverage was the the reminder, rather near the top of the article, that North Korea has been 'at war' with South Korea for decades.

Maybe that's not as dramatic as Reuters coverage: but I don't mind a little historical perspective.

Reuters does mention the armistice which ended the Korean War, together with what may or may not be a new development:

"...North Korea has canceled an armistice agreement with the United States that ended the Korean War and cut all hotlines with U.S. forces, the United Nations and South Korea."
(Reuters)

That was in the last paragraph of the Reuters article. Maybe North Korea canceled the armistice agreement today: or they could have done so in 1954. Reuters doesn't say.

Serious? Yes

Tempting as it is to imagine that North Korea's new leader is merely following in his dynasty's tradition of making wild threats against "imperialists," this time we may have a leader who believes his own propaganda.

I think it is very unlikely that North Korea could defeat the United States by lobbing nuclear warheads at Alaska and Hawaii.

On the other hand, if North Korea's new leadership decides to teach "US imperialists" a lesson by killing thousands of American citizens: it's possible that my country's antimissile defense system wouldn't stop the warhead(s).

That would be very bad news for anyone living near the new ground zero: and, most likely, for folks living in or downwind of North Korea.

If Kim Jong-un, or a maverick North Korean general, decides to launch a nuclear strike, I don't think the United States would be that nation's biggest concern.

A few years ago Russia changed their nuclear policy, and are now willing to launch a first nuclear attack. (January 19, 2008) Russia's Pacific seaports, including Vladivostok, are substantially closer to North Korea than Alaska or Hawaii: and Russia has a record of shooting first, as KAL flights 902 and 007 demonstrated. (September 10, 2007)

Related posts:

• North Korea
  • "South Korea Computers Crash, Causing Coffee Cash Crisis"
    (March 20, 2013)
  • "Kim Jong Il is Dead: North Korea's Ruling Dynasty's Third Generation"
    (December 19, 2011)
  • "American Military Tests Antimissile System: Smart Move, I Think"
    (December 19, 2009)
  • "North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, Brinksmanship, and Miscalculation"
    (May 27, 2009)
  • " North Korea's City-Busting Nuke, a New Missile, and Diplomacy"
    (May 25, 2009)
• News
  • "Yemen, Al Qaeda, Fort Hood, and All That"
    (December 24, 2009)
  • "Imperialist American Aggressors Attack Poland?"
    (October 30, 2009)
  • "The New York Times, Insularity, and Assumptions"
    (October 21, 2008)
  • "Army Report: Big Mistakes in Iraq!"
    (June 30, 2008)
    Particularly
    • Big Iraq Mistakes Report Creates Big Dilemma
  • "News, Truth, and Why America is at Fault"
    (June 20, 2008)

South Korea Computers Crash, Causing Coffee Cash Crisis

"South Korean banks and media report computer network crash, causing speculation of North Korea cyberattack"
Associated Press, via FoxNews.com (March 20, 2013)

"Computer networks at major South Korean banks and top TV broadcasters crashed simultaneously Wednesday, paralyzing bank machines across the country and prompting speculation of a cyberattack by North Korea.

"Screens went blank at 2 p.m., the state-run Korea Information Security Agency said, and more than six hours later some systems were still down...."

Since the United States and South Korea do joint military drills, which annoys North Kora's government, it's possible that North Korea is behind the attack. Then again, maybe not.

United Nations imposed sanctions on North Korea after last month's nuclear test, which gives the North another motive for scrambling South Korean computers.

The good news is that South Korea's government agencies, power plants, and transportation systems weren't affected.

The bad news is that this outage was a cyberattack, not the result of glitchy software or a squirrel's fiery annihilation in a power line's transformer.

Coffee Cash Crisis at Starbucks

South Korea's economy is one of the world's top 20. I doubt that being plunged into a cash-only world for a few hours will do much damage. On the other hand, I'm glad that I wasn't on coffee break in Seol when the ATMs died.

"...Some customers were unable to use the debit or credit cards that many rely on more than cash. At one Starbucks in downtown Seoul, customers were asked to pay for their coffee in cash, and lines formed outside disabled bank machines...."
(Associated Press, via FoxNews.com)

Cyberattack: or Really Bad Luck?

Machines break down sometimes. South Korean might have just been unlucky. Very unlucky.

In this case, so many systems going down at the same time seems - - - improbable.

I'm sincerely glad that I don't have the task of figuring out what happened in South Korea. Sorting through technical data may be much easier than separating accurate eyewitness reports from flights of fancy.

"...'It's got to be a hacking attack,' Lim Jong-in, dean of Korea University's Graduate School of Information Security. 'Such simultaneous shutdowns cannot be caused by technical glitches.'

"The Korea Information Security Agency had reported that an image of skulls and a hacking claim had popped up on some of the computers that shut down, but later said those who reported the skulls did not work for the five companies whose computers suffered massive outages. KISA was investigating the skull images as well...."
(Associated Press, via FoxNews.com)

Speculation and Denial

A Korea Communications Commission official said that destructive code might have been spread from servers sending automatic updates and virus patches for security software. The key word is 'might.' Right now, so soon after the event, I'd be very surprised if investigators had traced the problems to their source.

That said, I think it's reasonable to assume that the outage wasn't an accident. North Korea's leadership apparently denies that they're running an Internet warfare unit. Maybe so, but that outfit is still churning out cold-war-style variations on the old 'capitalistic imperialistic warmonger' rhetoric.

The effect their policies have on North Korea's citizens being what it is, I'm not surprised: distracting folks from bread-and-butter issues might seem expedient, and that's another topic.

Back to the dean of Korea University's Graduate School of Information Security:

"Likely," "Probable," and Motive

"...Lim said he believes hackers in China were likely culprits in the outage in Pyongyang, but that North Korea was probably responsible for Wednesday's attack.

" 'Hackers attack media companies usually because of a political desire to cause confusion in society,' he said. 'Political attacks on South Korea come from North Koreans.'..."
(Associated Press, via FoxNews.com)

I'm inclined to agree with dean Lim: someone probably wanted to mess with South Korean media to "cause confusion in society." Or frustration, anyway.

Consequences of today's attack might be a bit more serious than a few frazzled Starbucks customers. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that losing several hours of productivity, directly from out-of-service machines and indirectly from folks being a bit off their game after a disrupted schedule, might have at least a tiny effect on South Korea's economy.

More seriously, South Korea's servers are part of the Internet - so problems there could spread.

Not a Weekend Project

Whoever arranged for today's outage put a lot of effort into it. And, although it doesn't look like investigators know who the attacks planners were: this does seem to be an attack, the first of several.

"...Orchestrating the mass shutdown of the networks of major companies would have taken at least one to six months of planning and coordination, said Kwon Seok-chul, chief executive officer of Seoul-based cyber security firm Cuvepia Inc.

"Kwon, who analyzed personal computers at one of the three broadcasters shut down Wednesday, said he hasn't yet seen signs that the malware was distributed by North Korea.

" 'But hackers left indications in computer files that mean this could be the first of many attacks,' he said.

"Lim said tracking the source of the outage would take months."
(Associated Press, via FoxNews.com)

Coffee Breaks and Power Grids

I like living in the Information Age, but the benefits of fast global communication and continent-spanning power grids come with new problems.

The The Great Northeast Blackout of 1965 only affected 30,000,000 folks. About 100,000,000 people living in Java and Bali lost power in 2005, and back-to-back power failures in India last year set a new record: the July 30 and 31, 2012, events affected 620,000,000 people.

Since coordinating generators and transmission lines on today's scale involves software, 'throwing a monkey wrench' into the system can be done from the other side of the world.

Most of the serious discussion of 'cyberthreats' has focused on hacking into computers that control power grids, or ones holding secure information.

At least as disquieting, I think, is what could happen if someone managed to get into prescription formula databases, or got control of life support systems in a hospital.

Pleasant dreams.

Related posts:

• "Hack Attack: Good News, Bad news, Security, and Freedom"
  (February 6, 2013)
• " 'Digital Sabre-Rattling,' 'Complex Legal and Cultural Issues,' and Heat-Related Deaths"
  (July 15, 2011)
• "IMF Hacked, Again - or - 'This isn't Cyberwar: It Just Acts Like Cyberwar'?!"
  (June 11, 2011)
• "Korea: 'South Korean Puppet Group' and the Real World"
  (November 23, 2010)
• "China, Paper on How to Bring Down USA Power Grid: All a Big Misunderstanding?"
  (March 20, 2010)