Australia's Victoria Fires: Mass-Murdering Muslims, a Media Hoax, or Something Else?

(Update:
"Muslims Jailed, Suspect Arrested: Terrorism and Australia's Bushfires Burn On"
(February 14, 2009))

(Update:
"Islamic Website Called for 'Forest Jihad' - But Still No Evidence in Victoria"
(February 9, 2009))

Parts of Australia's Victoria state are still on fire. These bushfires are now Australia's worst national disaster. Or, strictly speaking, more-or-less natural disaster.

Arson, Probably; Mass Murder, Looks Like

Police have very good reason to believe that at least some of the bushfires were deliberately set. That's arson.

And, according to Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, mass murder. I'm a little cautious about terms like that, but in this case I think "mass murder" is reasonably accurate. People whose bodies were left in the street of Marysville would almost certainly have been alive today, except for the bushfires.

Australia's Victoria Bushfires: Islamic Terrorists? Muslim Arsonists?

With the death toll climbing toward 200 (173 is the highest number I've read so far), people are getting quite upset. Stress can make people do odd things. And, make odd assumptions.

Last year, with moonbat-crazy rumors adding spice to the American presidential election, I wrote, "... it's been raining nuts under the tree of liberty...." (October 20, 2008)

It looks like some people have taken the few facts that we all have, stirred in their preferred assumptions, and jumped to conclusions that lie on the far side of the reality's borders.

Criminals, Yes; Terrorists, Not necessarily

Australian police have good reason for thinking that at least some of the fires were arson. Repeating from yesterday's post: "Kieran Walshe, the deputy police commissioner for the state, said: 'When you look at the way fires started, you can clearly see it's not possible for a natural ignition to occur.' " (CNN)

The Church Valley fire was deliberately lit, and all burned towns are being treated as crime scenes, I heard on Herald Sun website video.

Marysville, a "picturesque hamlet" in northeast Victoria, has been declared a crime scene. "Police blocked cars from driving into Marysville in northeast Victoria, saying there were still bodies in the streets and the whole town was a crime scene, the national AAP news agency said." (France 24 (February 9, 2009))

People burned to a crisp, and massive destruction of property, make setting the Victoria fires an extremely serious crime. But that alone doesn't make them an act of terror by Muslims.

Muslim Mass Murderers? Islamic Incendiarists? Let's Wait for Evidence

The Victoria fires could be the work of a Muslim: about a 1.5% chance.

Odds that acknowledged members of the following groups in Australia will be the arsonist, everything else being equal, in any given case, are:

Muslim---	1.5%
Buddhist---	1.9%
Anglican---	20.5%
Catholic---	26.4%

Those percentages show how many people in Australia follow those systems of belief. (CIA Factbook)

At this point, I've seen no published information hinting at any motive for the fires - or indicating that setting them was an act of Islamic terrorism. And, although it's possible that there is an Islamic connection to the Victoria fires, many other motives are also possible. I'm willing to wait until a few more facts come out, before speculating.

Fire as a Terror Weapon? Yes, it's Possible

I've written about the possibility of using wildfires or bushfires as a terror weapon (April 28, 2009). I think it's possible that terrorists - Islamic or otherwise - would deliberately set a fire. But, in this case - as in the Sierra Madre fire last year - there's no evidence than links the fires to the War on Terror.

Australia's Bushfires, Muslim Terrorists, and Assumptions

I don't keep track of people who visit this blog. I do, though, get data about referring sites and search strings.

Since Australia's Victoria fires hit the news, searches like these have been showing up:

• australia arson islam
• islam bushfire
• bushfires muslims
  (more than once)
• muslim arson australia
  (more than once)
• bushfires, arsonists, islamic
• muslim arsonists in australia
• muslims australia arson
• victoria bushfire terrorists

I could go on, but you probably see the pattern. It looks like quite a few people assume that Islamic terrorists are behind the Victoria fires. Or, maybe, are looking for bloggers who have made that accusation.

As I wrote before, It's possible that the Victoria fires were set by terrorists who think they're defending Islam. The bushfires could have been set by someone who wanted to collect insurance, get even with a neighbor, or just likes to see things burn.

At least one person came up with what I think is a more imaginative explanation.

The Media and Kevin Rudd are in Cahoots: A Conspiracy Theory

That prolific correspondent, Anonymous, posted a comment on another blog. This Anonymous apparently believes that the Victoria fires may be a media hoax:

"The Age is reporting 76 dead in Victoria today due to the bushfires. I've just gone through the Age coverage of the bushfires and have emerged sceptical. Not one of the 76 has been named. Even people from small towns who say they know people who have died did not give their names.

"This is an extraordinary situation - we KNOW that 76 people are dead, yet not one of them apparently has a name. Is this a media hoax designed to make Australians panic and line up solidly behind Kevin Rudd's 'climate change agenda'?"
(February 8, 2009 3:55 AM)
(comment from "Australia's Victoria State Bushfires: 65+ Dead" (Apathetic Lemming of the North (February 8, 2009))

Media Hoax! Head of Australian Government Implicated!

I think it's reasonable to call this idea, that 'the media' made up what's happened in Victoria, a conspiracy theory. As such things go, this one is rather plausible. Much of what Anonymous says or implies is quite true:

• The media is a lot of time and effort, covering Victoria's fires
• Kevin Rudd is Australia's prime minister
  • He does seem to be concerned about the high-profile 'climate change' issue

So far, so good. Even better, the fires are quite a few miles outside Melbourne. The smoke could be explained as part of the media hoax.

Reality Check

Another person posted a comment, mentioning rather pedestrian details. These included:

• A discrete reference to what intense fires do to a person's appearance, and identifiability
• The somewhat time-consuming nature of forensic dentistry and DNA tests
• A custom of informing next-of-kin before releasing the names of deceased persons

(Here in America, the name of someone involved in an accident may not be released for days, if next-of-kin are hard to find. I haven't determined whether or not Australia has a similar custom.)

Another Anonymous, or perhaps the same one, seemed to respond to this injection of common sense rather strongly. Anonymous's next comment, redacted:

"I'm glad all these useless c***s died. F*** them. What did had they done for me lately? Nothing. Burn m*****f****r, burn. Victoria is a sh***y place any way. Full of f*** heads like you."
(February 8, 2009 9:38 AM)
(comment from "Australia's Victoria State Bushfires: 65+ Dead" (Apathetic Lemming of the North (February 8, 2009))

As I discussed in another post, name-calling is not necessarily an effective way of proving a point.

Crime, Common Sense, and the War on Terror

I have little doubt that the massive disaster in Victoria is the result of human action. And, that setting the fires was a criminal act.

Blaming Muslims, Islamic Terrorists, or Islam itself makes about as much sense as Blaming Israel and America for the 9/11 attack. (The idea is that, by supporting the (alleged) Israeli genocide of somebody, America enraged Muslims, and so is to blame for Al Qaeda ramming the World Trade Center.)

At this point. It's possible that the fires were some sort of Muslim plot. I think the odds are that non-Muslims were responsible. But, even if it's proven that distinctly non-Muslim non-terrorists are responsible, and that the media didn't make up all those deaths, I'll be surprised if people who are convinced that the fires (or the 'hoax') are some sort of conspiracy will change their minds.


View Larger Map


View Larger Map

Related posts:

• "Retard! Or, How Not to Make Your Point"
  (January 20, 2009)
• "Mumbai, India's 9/11: Good News, Bad News, Conspiracy Theories, and a Little Common Sense"
  (December 2, 2008)
• "'Why is Everybody Always Picking on Me?' - The United Nations, Muslims, Zionists, and 'Those People'"
  (October 5, 2008)
  • Particularly "A Secret Enemy Makes Life So Much Easier"
• "9/11 and What They Want You to Believe"
  (September 11, 2008)
• "911 Was an Inside Job! Our Boys Need to Know!"
  (June 10, 2008)
• "Sierra Madre Fire: It Could Be Worse"
  (April 28, 2008)

Related posts, in another blog:

• "Australia's Victoria State Bushfires Update:"
  Apathetic Lemming of the North (February 8, 2009)
• "Australia's Victoria State Bushfires: 65+ Dead"
  Apathetic Lemming of the North (February 8, 2009)

In the news:

• "Fires rage as death toll rises to 173"
  The Sydney Morning Herald (February 10, 2009)
• The Age homepage
  (current)
  • Note: This is a 'live' newspaper homepage.
    Today (here in North America, that's February 9, 2009), it is largely devoted to the disastrous fires in Victoria.
    This will change, as time passes.
• Herald Sun homepage
  via News.com.au (current)
  • Note: This is a 'live' newspaper homepage.
    Today (here in North America, that's February 9, 2009), it is largely devoted to the disastrous fires in Victoria.
    This will change, as time passes.
• Herald Sun videos
  video (varying lengths, often around three minutes)
  (starting February 8, 2009)
• "Blazes still threaten Victorian towns as death toll reaches 166"
  Herald Sun via News.com.au (February 10, 2009)
• "Australian PM: Wildfire arson is mass murder"
  CNN (February 9, 2009)
• "Australian Wildfires Called 'Mass Murder' After 171 Killed"
  FOXNews (February 9, 2009)
• "Fast, fickle, fatal: Face-to-face with wildfires"
  CNN (February 9, 2009)
• "Australian wildfires rage on after killing 131"
  France 24 (February 9, 2009)
• "Arson rumours"
  Police are treating all communities devastated by bushfires in Victoria as crime scenes. Sky News (February 8, 2009, and following)