Neda Agha Soltan: One Year, No Arrests, Three Official Stories

Iran's Ayatollahs and their government stand firmly behind their explanation for Neda Agha Soltan's shooting death last year. She was definitely shot by:

• The CIA
• Terrorists
• Folks who thought last year's election had odd results

And, since they're running Iran: what they say is so, is so. Officially.

Unofficially, a remarkable number of people in Iran still say the election was rigged: brave words, since criticizing the election results is the same as waging war against God. According to Ayatollah Khatami. (June 28, 2009)

From today's news:

"A year after Neda's death, Iran movement continues"
CNN(June 20, 2010)

"...Today, the Iranian regime's crackdown seems to have driven protesters off the streets. But the movement is not weakening, some analysts say. Instead, it's evolved into an online underground civil rights struggle, they say.

" 'I think they're going to continue to move forward, whether in the form of a green movement or another type of movement,' said Karim Sadjadpour, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 'It's just, basically, this march of history.'..."

As I wrote last year, quite a few of the people "waging war against God" in Iran are among the brightest and most educated young adults. That's one demographic that is not going to sit down and be quiet like good (by the Ayatollahs' standards) little Muslims.

I think Karim Sadjadpour has a point: in one sense, the Ayatollahs have already lost. They've managed to alienated a significant number of the Iranians who will - or would be - Iran's leaders in a few decades. Whoever they arrange to have elected next is unlikely to generate much support - particularly among Iranians who understand today's information technology, and know how to use it.

The Ayatollahs may last for years, maybe decades. They have the guns, the enforcers, and the incentive to kill anybody who doesn't agree with them. But it looks like they've lost the support of their subjects. At least, the ones who have what it takes to run Iran. Eventually, I think the Ayatollahs will run out of ammunition, enforcers: or Ayatollahs.

Related posts:

• "Iran, Twitter, and the Responsibilities of Proper British Gentlemen"
  (December 29, 2009)
• "Neda Agha Soltan's Death was 'Staged' - Officially"
  (July 1, 2009)
• "Protesting Election Fraud is "Waging War Against God" - Ayatollah Khatami"
  (June 28, 2009)
• "Pray for Neda: And Learn About the Real Iran"
  (June 26, 2009)
• "CIA Shot Neda: Old Story, New Names"
  (June 26, 2009)
• "Iran: 'Terrorists' Killed Neda Agha Soltan - Officially"
  (June 24, 2009)
• "Neda Agha Soltan, Iran, Cell Phone Cameras, and the Information Age"
  (June 23, 2009)
• "Remembering Iran's Neda Agha-Soltan"
  (June 22, 2009)
• " 'RIP NEDA, The World cries seeing your last breath ... We remember you.' "
  (June 21, 2009)